+EV Calculator for Betting | Find Positive Expected Value

Q: How do I estimate my win probability?

Use the factors that predict results: recent form, expected goals, team news and home or away records. The more disciplined your process, the more reliable your estimates.

Betting Calculators › +EV Calculator

💎 Free Tool

Expected Value (+EV) Calculator

Enter the odds and your own estimated probability to see instantly whether a bet is +EV, how big your edge is, and what the bookmaker’s price really implies.

⚡ Instant verdict 🎯 Shows your edge 📱 Mobile friendly

How to use the +EV calculator

1Enter the decimal odds. Type the price the bookmaker is offering on your selection.

2Enter your win probability. Add your own honest estimate of how likely the outcome is, as a percentage.

3Read the verdict. The tool shows the expected value, the implied probability behind the odds, and how many points of edge you have.

What is expected value (+EV)?

Expected value is the average result you would expect from a bet if you could place it many times over. A positive EV (+EV) bet is one where the odds are bigger than the true probability of the outcome, which is exactly what long-term profitable betting is built on.

Example: odds 2.50, your estimate 50%

Implied probability 1 ÷ 2.50 = 40%

Your estimate 50%

Your edge +10 points

Verdict +EV value bet ✓

If your estimated probability is higher than the odds imply, the bet is +EV. It can still lose on the day, but backing +EV bets consistently is what turns betting into a genuine edge.

Learn the theory behind it

Our value betting guide explains how to estimate probabilities and spot +EV bets in any match.

Read Value Betting →

+EV calculator FAQ

Does a +EV bet always win?

No. A +EV bet can still lose. Positive expected value means the price is bigger than the true probability, so the edge only shows up as profit across a large number of bets, not on any single one.

How do I estimate my win probability?

Use the factors that actually predict results: recent form, expected goals, team news and home or away records. The more disciplined your process, the more reliable your probability estimates become.

What does “your edge” mean?

Your edge is the gap between your estimated probability and the probability implied by the odds. A bigger edge means better value, as long as your estimate is realistic and honest.

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