Plymouth Argyle and Exeter City begin their 2026-27 campaigns with a huge Devon Derby at Home Park, as the EFL Cup first round ends with one of the most emotional ties of the round.
Plymouth enter the new season with strong momentum after an excellent finish to last campaign and an unbeaten pre-season, while Exeter arrive after relegation, managerial change and a difficult summer. With home advantage, better form and more quality in the squad, Plymouth look capable of winning by two goals.
Prediction Summary
Our prediction: Plymouth 3-1 Exeter
Plymouth finished last season strongly, went unbeaten in six pre-season matches and should have too much quality for an Exeter side still rebuilding after relegation to League Two. The Devon Derby should be competitive, but Home Park gives Plymouth a major edge. Our best bet is Plymouth -1.5 Asian Handicap at odds of 2.50.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Plymouth -1.5 Asian Handicap
Market: Asian Handicap
Correct Score Prediction: 3-1
Odds: 2.50
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Expected Goals: Over 2.5
Both Teams To Score: Yes
📅 Date: EFL Cup – Round One – August 10 2026
🏟️ Venue: Home Park
🏆 Competition: EFL Cup
Match Preview
Plymouth begin their 2026-27 season with a home Devon Derby that should bring plenty of intensity.
The Pilgrims narrowly missed out on the League One playoffs last season, finishing just two points outside the top six. That was frustrating, especially because their late-season form suggested they were one of the stronger sides in the division by the end of the campaign.
Plymouth went unbeaten in their final six league matches and lost only once across their final 12 league outings. The issue was not the finish — it was the poor start that left them with too much ground to recover.
That context matters going into the new season.
Tom Cleverley’s side now have a chance to reset with momentum already behind them. They have also carried that form into the summer, winning five of six pre-season friendlies and drawing the other against Championship opposition Bristol City.
Plymouth have not lost in any competition since early April, and that unbeaten run gives them a strong platform heading into Monday’s EFL Cup tie.
The club have also added seven new players this summer, with several expected to become important during their League One promotion push. New striker Will Evans has arrived from Mansfield Town as a replacement for Lorent Tolaj and could be involved quickly.
Exeter arrive in a very different place.
The Grecians were relegated from League One last season after finishing 21st, ending a four-year stay in the third tier. Their final points total was 49, and while that would not have looked disastrous in other seasons, it was not enough in 2025-26.
The biggest concern is how the season ended.
Gary Caldwell’s departure to Wigan triggered a dramatic collapse in form, and Matt Taylor’s return did not stabilise the team. Exeter won just one of their final 13 League One matches and failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of those games.
That defensive weakness is a major issue before visiting Home Park.
Their pre-season has also been far less convincing than Plymouth’s. Exeter won only once and suffered defeats to non-league sides Truro City and Torquay United, which does not suggest they are ready to handle one of League One’s stronger teams away from home.
This is a derby, so emotion can narrow the gap.
But Plymouth have the better squad, better momentum, stronger home advantage and more stability. Exeter may contribute, but the hosts should have enough to progress with a clear win.
For more cup previews and weekend football picks, see our latest football betting tips.
Why Plymouth -1.5 Makes Sense
Plymouth -1.5 is the value angle because the gap between the sides looks bigger than a normal derby price may suggest.
Plymouth are still a League One promotion candidate, while Exeter are beginning life back in League Two after a poor end to last season. The hosts are unbeaten since April, have enjoyed a strong pre-season and should be confident at Home Park.
Exeter, meanwhile, have several warning signs.
They collapsed late last season, struggled defensively, failed to keep clean sheets consistently and have not looked convincing in pre-season. That is a difficult profile before facing a Plymouth side with attacking quality and confidence.
The derby factor is the main risk.
Exeter will be motivated, and they did avoid defeat in the most recent meeting at Home Park, drawing 2-2 in April. But Plymouth now look the more stable and upward-moving side, while Exeter are still adjusting after relegation.
If Plymouth score first, the game could open up.
Exeter may have to chase, and that would leave spaces for the hosts to exploit. With Home Park behind them and a chance to start the season positively, Plymouth should be motivated to make a statement.
A 3-1 home win fits the matchup well.
- ✓Plymouth missed the League One playoffs by just two points last season.
- ✓Plymouth went unbeaten in their final six League One matches.
- ✓Plymouth lost only one of their final 12 league games last season.
- ✓Plymouth are unbeaten across six pre-season matches.
- ✓Plymouth won five of their six summer friendlies.
- ✓Exeter were relegated from League One last season.
- ✓Exeter won just one of their final 13 League One matches.
- ✓Exeter failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 of those 13 matches.
- ✓Exeter won only once during pre-season.
- ✓Exeter lost pre-season matches to Truro City and Torquay United.
Team News
Plymouth may not name a full-strength XI with the League One season starting soon, but the importance of a Devon Derby should still encourage Tom Cleverley to select a competitive side.
New striker Will Evans has arrived from Mansfield Town and could make his debut after joining as a replacement for Lorent Tolaj.
Wes Harding and Alex Mitchell both signed permanent deals after successful loan spells at Home Park last season and could be involved in the matchday squad.
Plymouth will be without Michael Baidoo, who is expected to miss up to 12 weeks with a hamstring injury.
Exeter could hand competitive debuts to several new arrivals.
Taylor Perry may come into the defensive line, while Josh Gordon is expected to feature in attack after joining from Walsall. Jayden Wareham remains at the club for now and is likely to lead the line.
Players to Watch
Will Evans
Will Evans could make his Plymouth debut after arriving from Mansfield. As a new attacking option, he has a chance to make an immediate impression in a high-profile derby.
Wes Harding
Wes Harding gives Plymouth defensive reliability and experience after making his move permanent. His presence could help the hosts manage the emotional moments of the derby.
Josh Gordon
Josh Gordon is one of Exeter’s new attacking options and could be important if the visitors are to hurt Plymouth on the break. He may need to be efficient with limited chances.
Jayden Wareham
Jayden Wareham is expected to lead the line for Exeter. His ability to hold the ball up and compete physically will be important if the Grecians are to stay in the game.
Head-to-Head
Plymouth and Exeter met twice in League One last season.
Exeter won 2-0 at St James Park before the sides played out a 2-2 draw at Home Park in April. That recent record shows Exeter can compete in this fixture, but the current momentum looks very different.
Plymouth enter the new campaign in better shape, while Exeter are rebuilding after relegation.
Final Verdict
Derbies can be unpredictable, but Plymouth look the stronger side.
They finished last season in excellent form, remained unbeaten through pre-season and have the home advantage at Home Park. Cleverley’s side should be motivated to start the campaign well after narrowly missing out on the playoffs.
Exeter are still adjusting after relegation and a difficult end to last season. Their defensive record under Matt Taylor was poor, and their pre-season results have not been especially convincing.
The visitors can make this competitive and may score, but Plymouth should have enough quality to win clearly.
The correct score prediction is 3-1, and the best bet is Plymouth -1.5 Asian Handicap at odds of 2.50.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
Plymouth 3-1 Exeter
Best Bet: Plymouth -1.5 Asian Handicap
Odds: 2.50
Confidence: 4/5
For more explanations, see our sports betting guide.
