Arsenal welcome Chelsea to the Emirates Stadium on Sunday with both London clubs protecting perfect Premier League records.
Mikel Arteta’s defending champions have won their opening three competitive matches by an aggregate score of 7-0. They followed comfortable 3-0 victories over Manchester City and Coventry City with a hard-earned 1-0 win at Aston Villa.
Chelsea have also won three from three under Xabi Alonso, scoring nine goals. Their attack has clicked immediately, but conceding five times against Fulham and Brighton raises serious questions before facing Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz.
Our prediction is 2-1, with Arsenal Win & Over 2.5 Goals at odds of 2.50 our best bet.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Arsenal Win & Over 2.5 Goals
Market: Match Result & Total Goals
Correct Score Prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea
Odds: 2.50
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Expected Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: Yes
📅 Date: Sunday 6 September 2026, 16:30 BST
🏟️ Venue: Emirates Stadium, London
🏆 Competition: Premier League – Matchweek 3
Match Preview
Arsenal have started their title defence with the same control that carried them through the closing months of last season. Arteta’s team have now kept seven clean sheets in their latest 10 competitive matches, winning eight of those games.
The latest victory at Villa Park was not their most fluent performance, but it showed their patience. Aston Villa failed to register a shot on target, while Bukayo Saka scored the only goal after Riccardo Calafiori was released by Eberechi Eze and delivered a low cutback.
Arteta has started both league matches in a 4-2-3-1 with Declan Rice and Myles Lewis-Skelly behind Odegaard. Saka and Christos Tzolis stretch the pitch around Havertz, while Calafiori and Ben White are encouraged to join attacks. Calafiori has already supplied two league assists, giving Arsenal an extra route into the penalty area.
The depth is also important. Eze changed the Villa match after coming on at half-time, while Mikel Merino, Martin Zubimendi and Bruno Guimaraes give Arteta several ways to adjust his midfield. Viktor Gyokeres and Noni Madueke are further attacking options if Arsenal need a different type of threat.
Chelsea will provide a much tougher attacking test than Coventry or Villa. Alonso’s side have scored nine goals in three competitive matches, including seven across their two league wins. They opened with a 3-2 victory at Fulham before beating Brighton 4-3 at Stamford Bridge.
The front three have settled quickly. Joao Pedro leads the line, drops into midfield to link play and creates room for Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers to attack from behind him. Palmer and Joao Pedro have each scored in both league games, while Rogers has contributed a goal and an assist since joining from Aston Villa.
Alonso’s 3-4-2-1 can be dangerous when Chelsea win the ball and attack quickly. Pedro Neto offers speed on the right, Jorrel Hato gets forward from the opposite side and Palmer is difficult to track when he moves between midfield and defence.
The concern is what happens after Chelsea take control. They led Fulham and Brighton by at least two goals but conceded twice after establishing those advantages. Brighton recovered from 3-0 down to 3-2 and eventually scored three times, despite Chelsea holding on for a 4-3 win.
That combination of attacking quality and loose defending is exactly why this looks better suited to an Arsenal win with goals than another routine home clean sheet.
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See our latest football betting tips for more match predictions, or visit our Premier League guide for wider season analysis.
Why Arsenal Win & Over 2.5 Goals Makes Sense
This selection requires two things: Arsenal must win and the match must produce at least three goals. The predicted 2-1 scoreline would land both parts of the bet.
Arsenal are the more settled team and have home advantage. They have won every competitive match this season, conceded no goals and allowed only one shot on target across their first two league fixtures.
Chelsea’s early defensive record is the reason to add Over 2.5 Goals rather than settle for the standard Arsenal win. Alonso’s team have conceded five goals in two Premier League games and have not kept a clean sheet across their latest five competitive away matches.
Saka can attack the space around Chelsea’s left wing-back, while Odegaard should find pockets behind a midfield that may again include a natural full-back. On the other side, Calafiori’s forward runs can test Neto or Reece James and force Chelsea’s back three to defend across the full width of the pitch.
There is also a clear argument for Chelsea scoring. Palmer, Rogers and Joao Pedro have started the season sharply, and Arsenal could be without William Saliba, Jurrien Timber and Cristhian Mosquera. A reshaped centre-back pairing would face its hardest test of the campaign.
The main risk is Arsenal controlling the game too well. Their defensive record makes a 1-0 or 2-0 home victory possible, and either result would leave the goals part of the bet short. Chelsea could also punish Arsenal on the break and take a point if Palmer receives too much space.
Even so, 2.50 is an attractive price for a result that fits both teams’ early-season profiles. Arsenal have the control and home advantage to win, while Chelsea have enough attacking quality to contribute to a match containing at least three goals.
- ✓Arsenal have won all three competitive matches this season
- ✓Arsenal have scored seven goals without conceding this season
- ✓Chelsea have won all three matches under Xabi Alonso
- ✓Chelsea have scored nine and conceded five in three competitive matches
- ✓Both Chelsea league games produced Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS
- ✓Bukayo Saka has scored in both Arsenal league matches
- ✓Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro have scored in both Chelsea league matches
- ✓Chelsea conceded 11 goals across their latest five competitive away matches
Team News
Arsenal remain without William Saliba because of a back injury, while Jurrien Timber is expected to miss the derby with a groin problem. Cristhian Mosquera is doubtful after suffering muscular discomfort at Aston Villa and missing Thursday’s open training session.
Ezri Konsa replaced Mosquera at Villa Park and could make his first Arsenal start against Chelsea. Declan Rice trained after appearing to limp following his substitution, but Bruno Guimaraes is a doubt after also missing the open session.
Chelsea’s main concern is Moises Caicedo. The midfielder returned from injury against Brighton but lasted only around 13 minutes before reporting further discomfort. Romeo Lavia is therefore likely to keep an important role, with Reece James or Malo Gusto able to join him centrally.
Jordan Henderson has yet to make his Chelsea debut following wrist surgery, while this match may arrive too soon for Marco Palestra. Levi Colwill has remained available, although his workload is being managed.
Possible Starting Lineups
Arsenal Possible XI
David Raya; Ben White; Ezri Konsa; Gabriel Magalhaes; Riccardo Calafiori; Declan Rice; Myles Lewis-Skelly; Bukayo Saka; Martin Odegaard; Christos Tzolis; Kai Havertz
Chelsea Possible XI
Emiliano Martinez; Wesley Fofana; Maxence Lacroix; Levi Colwill; Reece James; Malo Gusto; Romeo Lavia; Jorrel Hato; Cole Palmer; Morgan Rogers; Joao Pedro
Players to Watch
Bukayo Saka — Arsenal
Saka has scored in both Premier League matches and remains Arsenal’s most reliable attacking outlet. His one-against-one battle with Chelsea’s left side could be one of the biggest factors in the home win.
Riccardo Calafiori — Arsenal
Calafiori has started the season with a goal and two league assists. His timing from left-back gives Arsenal another runner around Tzolis or Eze and could pull Chelsea’s right side out of position.
Cole Palmer — Chelsea
Palmer has opened the league season with two goals and will look for space behind Arsenal’s midfield. His finishing from distance and ability from set pieces make him Chelsea’s leading candidate to score.
Joao Pedro — Chelsea
Joao Pedro has two goals and two assists from his first two league appearances. His movement away from the centre-backs can create room for Palmer and Rogers, particularly if Arsenal field a changed defensive pairing.
Head-to-Head
Past derby results carry less weight than usual because both squads have changed during the summer and Chelsea are working under a new manager. The more relevant contrast is between Arsenal’s settled 4-2-3-1 and Alonso’s developing three-centre-back system.
Final Verdict
Arsenal have been the more convincing team through the opening weeks. Their defensive control, strength in midfield and options from the bench give them a clear advantage at the Emirates.
Chelsea should still cause problems. Palmer, Rogers and Joao Pedro are combining well, and Arsenal’s centre-back absences make this a far more difficult defensive assignment than their first two league matches.
The danger is that Arsenal turn the derby into another controlled, low-scoring win. However, Chelsea’s first two league fixtures produced 12 total goals, and their wing-back system can leave space for Saka, Odegaard and Calafiori to attack.
At 2.50, Arsenal Win & Over 2.5 Goals offers more value than the straight home win. I expect Chelsea to contribute, but Arsenal should have the stronger midfield and the better balance over 90 minutes. The correct-score prediction is Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
Chelsea’s attack should give Arsenal their toughest match of the season so far, but their defensive record is difficult to trust at the Emirates. Arsenal are backed to edge a competitive derby with the third goal proving enough to land our best bet.
Best Bet: Arsenal Win & Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 2.50
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Correct Score: Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea
