Notts County host Leicester City in the opening round of the 2026/27 League One season, with the Foxes beginning life in the third tier under Russell Martin.
Leicester are entering strange territory as one of the biggest clubs in the division, but despite selling key players for significant money, they still have one of the strongest squads in League One. Notts County arrive with promotion momentum, but this is a major step up, and Leicester’s quality should be enough to edge a tight away win.
Prediction Summary
Our prediction: Notts County 0-1 Leicester
Leicester are playing in League One after a dramatic fall, but they remain one of the strongest teams in the division and are among the promotion favourites. Notts County should make this competitive at home, but Leicester’s squad quality and experience should tell. Our best bet is Leicester to Win at odds of 2.03.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Leicester to Win
Market: Full-Time Result
Correct Score Prediction: 0-1
Odds: 2.03
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Expected Goals: Under 2.5
Both Teams To Score: No
📅 Date: Opening Round – Saturday 15 August 2026
🏟️ Venue: Meadow Lane
🏆 Competition: EFL League One
Match Preview
Leicester City begin one of the most unusual seasons in the club’s modern history.
The Foxes are now in League One under Russell Martin, and while that represents an all-time low emotionally for a club that has experienced Premier League titles, European football and recent top-flight status, there is also a sense of reset.
Leicester are not expected to stay at this level for long.
They are one of the promotion favourites alongside clubs such as Sheffield Wednesday, and even after selling key players for more than £70m, the squad still looks strong compared with most League One opponents.
That is the key point for this opening fixture.
Leicester may be rebuilding, but they have added players who should be very useful at this level. Conor Chaplin, Wes Burns, Liam Cullen and Tommy Watson all bring different qualities, while the general squad profile still looks closer to Championship level than League One.
Russell Martin’s style is also clear.
Leicester are expected to dominate the ball, build through possession and control matches territorially. That was already visible in pre-season and in the Carabao Cup win over Northampton, where Leicester were not perfect but still found a way to win 1-0.
That result is important for this prediction.
It showed both sides of Leicester right now. They can control games and have enough quality to win, but they are still vulnerable to mistakes and not yet fully ruthless in the final third. Northampton had moments where they could have punished loose play, and Notts County will look to do the same.
Notts County will believe they can make this uncomfortable.
As a promoted side, they should bring energy, confidence and a strong home atmosphere at Meadow Lane. Opening-day fixtures can be emotional, and Leicester may still be dealing with the pressure of expectation after their recent decline.
But there is still a gap in quality.
Leicester have more experience, more control and more reliable match-winners. Notts County may have spells where they press and create danger, but over 90 minutes, the away side should have enough to manage the game and take the points.
This may not be a comfortable 3-0 statement win.
Leicester are still building under Martin, and their attacking fluency may take time. But they should be organised enough to start the season with a narrow victory.
For more EFL previews, see our latest football betting tips.
Why Leicester to Win Makes Sense
Leicester to Win is the best betting angle because the straight away win offers value without needing a big margin.
The Foxes are clearly one of the strongest teams in League One on paper. They have sold key players, but they have also reset the squad with players who should be hungry, experienced and proven at a higher level.
That matters in an opening fixture.
Notts County will bring intensity, but Leicester should have more control. Russell Martin’s possession-based approach should help the visitors slow the game down, reduce chaos and make Notts defend for long periods.
The main concern is whether Leicester can turn possession into clear chances.
That is why the handicap is less appealing. Leicester beat Northampton 1-0 in the Carabao Cup, and that type of scoreline could easily appear again here. They may dominate the ball, but they are still adjusting under a new manager and may not yet be clinical enough to blow teams away.
That makes 0-1 a realistic scoreline.
Notts County can compete, but Leicester’s defensive structure, set-piece quality and stronger squad should give them the edge. If the Foxes score first, they can manage the game and make it difficult for the home side to build momentum.
At odds of 2.03, Leicester to Win looks like the right selection.
- ✓Leicester are playing in League One under Russell Martin.
- ✓Leicester are one of the promotion favourites this season.
- ✓Leicester have sold key players for more than £70m.
- ✓Despite those sales, Leicester still have a strong squad for League One level.
- ✓Leicester beat Northampton 1-0 in the Carabao Cup.
- ✓Russell Martin’s side are expected to dominate possession.
- ✓Leicester may still need to improve their attacking sharpness.
- ✓Notts County arrive with promotion momentum.
- ✓Meadow Lane should create a strong opening-day atmosphere.
- ✓Leicester to Win offers value without needing a big winning margin.
Team News
Leicester are still in the middle of a rebuild, but Russell Martin has several important new players to work with.
Conor Chaplin brings experience and attacking intelligence, while Wes Burns offers energy, width and direct running. Liam Cullen knows Martin’s style from Swansea and could be useful in the forward line, while Tommy Watson gives Leicester a younger, exciting attacking option.
Set pieces may also be important after Leicester scored the winner against Northampton from a dead-ball situation.
There are still questions over whether Leicester need more firepower, especially if Bobby Cordova-Reid continues as a central option, but the overall squad remains strong for League One level.
Notts County should approach the game with belief and intensity after promotion, but this is one of the toughest opening fixtures they could have received. Their ability to stay compact, avoid early mistakes and punish Leicester’s loose moments will be crucial.
Players to Watch
Conor Chaplin
Conor Chaplin could be important for Leicester in tight games. His movement, experience and ability to find pockets around the box make him a player who can decide matches at this level.
Wes Burns
Wes Burns gives Leicester pace and directness. Against a Notts County side likely to defend with energy, his ability to stretch the pitch could be valuable.
Liam Cullen
Liam Cullen already understands Russell Martin’s demands and can help Leicester press, link play and attack the box. That familiarity may be useful early in the season.
Notts County’s Pressing Unit
Notts County’s best chance may come from pressing Leicester into mistakes. Martin’s teams like to play through pressure, but loose passes in defensive areas can create openings for the home side.
Head-to-Head
This fixture carries an interesting contrast.
Notts County return with promotion momentum and home belief, while Leicester arrive as one of the biggest clubs in League One but also with pressure and uncertainty after a difficult fall through the divisions.
Leicester’s status makes them favourites, but opening-day games can be unpredictable, especially away from home.
Final Verdict
Leicester should start their League One campaign with a win, but it may not be completely straightforward.
Russell Martin’s side are still learning, still rebuilding and still carrying the weight of recent failures. That can make matches feel fragile, especially if they fail to score early.
But the quality gap is clear.
Leicester have stronger players, better depth and a squad that should be competing for promotion. Notts County can make this difficult at Meadow Lane, but the visitors should have enough control and experience to edge it.
A narrow 0-1 Leicester win looks realistic.
The best bet is Leicester to Win at odds of 2.03.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
Notts County 0-1 Leicester
Best Bet: Leicester to Win
Odds: 2.03
Confidence: 5/5
