Roda vs Jong AZ Prediction, Tips & Preview

FreeOddsTips Verdict

Updated 29 Oct 2026

PredictionOver 3.5 Goals

Best Odds2.10

Value BetOver 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score

Confidence★★★☆☆

Best available price · 18+ · Play responsiblyBet Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10

Written by GüvenSports Betting & Product Specialist

Updated 29 October 2026 · 2 min read

Roda welcome Jong AZ to Parkstad Limburg Stadion on Friday night in an Eerste Divisie meeting between two sides arriving with sharply contrasting defensive records.

Rob Penders’ Roda are fifth after 12 games and have conceded a division-low 11 league goals, but their recent 3-2 win at Almere City showed that Anthony van den Hurk and the attacking unit can make this a much more open side when the game stretches.

Jong AZ have been involved in chaos at both ends. Frank Peereboom’s young team drew 4-4 at VVV-Venlo before beating Helmond Sport 5-4, and they have now conceded in every league match this season.

FreeOddsTips’ Roda vs Jong AZ prediction is Over 3.5 Goals at 2.10. Jong AZ’s away matches have consistently produced chances and goals, while Roda have enough quality around Van den Hurk to punish another loose defensive display.

Match Preview

Roda’s three-match winning run in all competitions has been built on a settled 3-4-2-1 structure. The wing-backs push high, Joshua Nisbet and Jérôme Déom provide the midfield base, and Van den Hurk is in excellent scoring form after his hat-trick at Almere. Dyon Dorenbosch is expected to remain out after his knee issue, but Déom has already stepped in effectively.

The visitors are unlikely to sit deep for long. Jong AZ’s 4-3-3 has produced 31 goals in 12 league fixtures, with Jasper Hartog among the current threats, but their openness is impossible to ignore. They have scored in all six away league matches and both teams have scored in each of those games. If Roda can move the ball quickly into the spaces behind Jong AZ’s advanced full-backs, this has the ingredients for another high-scoring Friday fixture.

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Our Best BetEditor’s Choice

Over 3.5 Goals

Jong AZ's last two games produced 17 goals
Jong AZ have no league clean sheet this season
Five of Jong AZ's six away games cleared 2.5

Best Odds2.10Decimal

18+ · Gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.orgBet Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10

Why Over 3.5 Goals Makes Sense

Jong AZ are the clearest driver of this goals bet. Their last two league matches finished 4-4 and 5-4, while they have conceded in all 12 Eerste Divisie fixtures. Their six away games have produced 35 total goals, with both teams scoring in every one.

Roda are usually more controlled than this market implies, having conceded only 11 league goals, but they have the attacking personnel to exploit Jong AZ's defensive instability. Van den Hurk has five league goals, including a hat-trick at Almere City, and Penders' wing-backs create extra numbers high up the pitch.

Over 3.5 Goals needs a more open game than Roda's recent defensive record alone would imply, which is why the price is 2.10. Jong AZ's aggressive, inexperienced profile makes that scenario realistic, and their recent matches have repeatedly moved beyond the three-goal mark.

Form & Recent Matches

Newest match first.

Roda

WWWDL

27 Oct 2026HDe Graafschap
KNVB Cup1-0W
23 Oct 2026AAlmere City
Eerste Divisie3-2W
19 Oct 2026AJong FC Utrecht
Eerste Divisie2-1W
09 Oct 2026HJong PSV
Eerste Divisie1-1D
04 Oct 2026AVVV-Venlo
Eerste Divisie0-2L

Jong AZ

WDLWD

23 Oct 2026HHelmond Sport
Eerste Divisie5-4W
16 Oct 2026AVVV-Venlo
Eerste Divisie4-4D
09 Oct 2026HFC Den Bosch
Eerste Divisie0-1L
18 Sep 2026HFC Volendam
Eerste Divisie4-1W
14 Sep 2026AJong PSV
Eerste Divisie1-1D

Match Statistics

Last 10 Matches

Roda5 W · 4 D · 1 L

1.30Avg goals scored

0.90Avg goals conceded

4/10Clean sheets

5Wins

4Draws

1Losses

Jong AZ4 W · 2 D · 4 L

2.60Avg goals scored

2.30Avg goals conceded

0/10Clean sheets

4Wins

2Draws

4Losses

GoalsBTTSHalf TimeClean SheetsForm

Statistic	Roda	Jong AZ
Avg goals scored	1.30	2.60
Avg goals conceded	0.90	2.30
Scored 0 goals	2/10	1/10
Scored 1 goal	4/10	3/10
Scored 2 goals	3/10	2/10
Scored 3+ goals	1/10	4/10
Conceded 0 goals	4/10	0/10
Conceded 1 goal	3/10	4/10
Conceded 2 goals	3/10	1/10
Conceded 3+ goals	0/10	5/10

Statistic	Roda	Jong AZ
BTTS — Yes	5/10	9/10
BTTS — No	5/10	1/10

Half-time data unavailable.

Statistic	Roda	Jong AZ
Clean sheets	4/10	0/10
Failed to keep a clean sheet	6/10	10/10

Roda

WWWDLWDWDD

5 Wins · 4 Draws · 1 Losses

Jong AZ

WDLWDLWWLL

4 Wins · 2 Draws · 4 Losses

Newest match first.

Form Analysis

Recent Form

How both teams have been performing.

Roda

Home team

Form Outlook

Roda have won three straight matches in all competitions and are unbeaten in six at home this season. Their league home record is three wins and two draws, with only four goals conceded across those five games.

The broader 10-match record is more measured than Jong AZ's: Roda have scored 13 and conceded nine. Their control at the back has been a major strength, but the 3-2 comeback at Almere showed a higher attacking ceiling when Van den Hurk is supplied early and often.

Jong AZ

Away team

Form Outlook

Jong AZ's recent record is mixed, but the goal output is relentless. They have scored 26 times and conceded 23 in their last 10 league fixtures, with nine of those games featuring both teams scoring.

Their away results are particularly volatile: 19 scored and 16 conceded in six trips, with no clean sheet. Peereboom's side can hurt opponents through quick combinations and individual quality, but they continue to allow too many shots and transitions.

Team News

Squad Update

Latest squad information before kick-off.

Roda

Home team

Squad Status

Dyon Dorenbosch is the principal concern after suffering a knee injury that required stitches against Almere City. Rob Penders expected him to miss both the De Graafschap cup tie and this Jong AZ match, with Jérôme Déom the direct replacement in the latest XI.

There is no reliable confirmation of a suspension affecting Roda's expected side. Mokrane Bentoumi strengthened his case for further involvement by scoring the late cup winner against De Graafschap.

Jong AZ

Away team

Squad Status

No reliable current injury or suspension issue has been reported for Jong AZ. Andrea Natali was replaced at half-time against Helmond Sport, but AZ did not identify the change as injury-related.

The projected side is therefore based largely on the XI used in the 5-4 win over Helmond. Julian Oerip, Jerolldino Bergraaf and Melle Roede are notable alternatives if Peereboom changes his attacking options.

Tactical Analysis

Tactical Outlook

RodaHome

Tactical matchup

Jong AZAway

Tactical Outlook

Roda are expected to retain Penders' 3-4-2-1, with Marsman and Peixoto providing width from wing-back and Mensah and Seedorf operating close to Van den Hurk. That shape can pin Jong AZ's full-backs back, especially if Roda establish the territorial control they showed with 58% possession and 21 shots at Jong FC Utrecht.

Jong AZ most recently used a 4-3-3 and are unlikely to abandon their proactive approach. Their midfielders and wide players look to play forward quickly, but the full-backs' advanced positions can leave room for Roda's supporting attackers to receive between the lines or attack the channels.

The key question is whether Roda can maintain their usual defensive control against the visitors' speed of combination. Jong AZ have scored in every away league game, yet Helmond were allowed 21 shots in the latest 5-4 defeat, leaving Roda with clear routes to contribute to a high total.

H2H

Head-to-Head

Previous meetings between the two teams.

24 Apr 2026Eerste DivisieVenue: Jong AZRoda0–2Jong AZ
05 Dec 2025Eerste DivisieVenue: RodaRoda2–3Jong AZ

Expected Starting XI

Team Lineups

Projected starting lineups for both teams.

RodaFormation 3-4-2-1

Jong AZFormation 4-3-3

Players to Watch

Key Players

Players who could have an important influence on the match.

Roda

Home team

Anthony van den HurkST
Roda's five-goal league top scorer hit a hat-trick in the 3-2 win at Almere City.
Jeremiah MensahAM
The creative left-footer assisted Van den Hurk's third goal at Almere and can exploit space behind the midfield.
Guilherme PeixotoRWB
His delivery created Van den Hurk's first goal at Almere and he is important to Roda's width.
Joshua NisbetCM
A key ball-winning and linking player in the midfield two who helps set Roda's tempo.

Jong AZ

Away team

Jasper HartogRW
In-form scorer with three goals across the VVV and Helmond Sport matches.
Julian OeripCM
Jong AZ's leading recorded creator with three goals and four assists in league action.
Jesper ZwartRB
Ever-present defender with four assists who offers a productive outlet from wide areas.
Bohdan BudkoCM
Scored against Helmond and adds late runs and forward passing from midfield.
Rio RobbemondST
Has three league goals and can link Jong AZ's midfield runners with the front line.

What the Numbers Tell Us

Data Insight

What the recent numbers suggest about the matchup.

Our Reading of the Data

Jong AZ's figures point firmly towards goals. They have no league clean sheet in 12 games, have scored in all six away fixtures, and both teams have scored in each of those trips. Five of those six away matches went over 2.5 goals.

Their last 10 league games have produced 49 goals in total, with eight clearing 2.5 and nine seeing both teams score. The recent 4-4 and 5-4 results are not isolated events but an extreme version of a season-long pattern.

Roda's numbers provide the counterargument: only three of their last 10 competitive matches went over 2.5 goals and they own the division's best defensive record. The case for Over 3.5 rests on Jong AZ being able to pull a normally disciplined Roda side into a faster, more fractured contest.

Final Verdict

Editorial

Our ConclusionRodavsJong AZ

Roda are the more balanced team and their home record suggests they should create enough to expose a Jong AZ defence that has not kept a league clean sheet. Van den Hurk's form, plus the service from the wing-backs and attacking midfielders, gives the hosts a credible route to multiple goals.

Jong AZ bring their own threat and have scored in every away league fixture, but their open matches have become impossible to overlook. Over 3.5 Goals at 2.10 is the FreeOddsTips selection, with a 1-3 correct-score call reflecting the possibility that Jong AZ's attack wins out in another end-to-end game.