Argentina close their October friendly schedule against Benin at Estadio Más Monumental on 6 October, with Lionel Messi’s scheduled international farewell giving the occasion a meaning beyond the result.
Lionel Scaloni’s side have been ruthless since returning from the World Cup, beating Bolivia 4-0 and Burkina Faso 7-0 in their two matches this window. The established core is expected to return for this game, led by Messi, Rodrigo De Paul, Enzo Fernández, Alexis Mac Allister, Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez.
Benin arrive in Buenos Aires after taking four points from their opening two AFCON qualifying matches, but the scale of this assignment is immense. Gernot Rohr’s side face a long trip, a short turnaround from their Mauritania fixture and an Argentina side likely to dominate territory from the opening whistle.
FreeOddsTips’ prediction is Messi to Score 3 or more goals at 2.40. It is an ambitious player bet, but the farewell narrative, Argentina’s recent scoring figures and the expectation that Messi starts in a front three all point towards a night built around their captain.
Argentina have scored 11 unanswered goals across their two October friendlies, although Scaloni rotated heavily in both. Messi, De Paul, Lo Celso and Nicolás Otamendi were held back for the Benin match, so the hosts should field a much more recognisable side. With Mac Allister and Enzo Fernández supplying the forwards, Argentina can sustain attacks and create repeated chances around Benin’s penalty area.
Rohr’s Benin can be organised in a 4-2-3-1 and have shown counter-attacking discipline against stronger African opponents. However, Steve Mounié is unavailable, limiting their aerial outlet, while Aiyegun Tosin may spend long periods isolated up front. Benin’s midfield screen of Sessi D’Almeida and Hassane Imourane will have a demanding task preventing Messi from receiving between the lines.
The visitors have enough pace through Junior Olaitan and Rodolfo Aloko to threaten on a rare break, but Argentina’s pressure and depth of attacking options should make this a one-sided contest. A 5-0 home win is the predicted score, with Messi given every chance to take centre stage.
Visit FreeOddsTips for more daily football predictions, match previews and player-betting angles from international football.
Our latest betting content also covers accumulator ideas, goals markets and key team-news updates before kick-off.
This is an unusually narrative-driven fixture. Messi is expected to make his 208th Argentina appearance in what has been billed as his final international match, and Scaloni is set to restore a stronger attacking unit around him after rotating heavily against Bolivia and Burkina Faso.
Argentina have scored four and seven in their two October friendlies without conceding. With De Paul, Enzo Fernández and Mac Allister expected to control possession, Messi should receive the ball regularly in the final third, as both a creator and a finisher.
A three-goal player bet is naturally high variance, so it is not a low-risk selection. But the 2.40 price reflects that target, while the farewell setting and likely mismatch make it more appealing than simply relying on an Argentina match-winner market.
Newest match first.
Based on 4 completed matches (fewer than 10 available).
Based on 8 completed matches (fewer than 10 available).
| Statistic | Argentina | Benin |
|---|---|---|
| Avg goals scored | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| Avg goals conceded | 0.50 | 1.38 |
| Scored 0 goals | 0/4 | 1/8 |
| Scored 1 goal | 0/4 | 6/8 |
| Scored 2 goals | 1/4 | 1/8 |
| Scored 3+ goals | 3/4 | 0/8 |
| Conceded 0 goals | 2/4 | 3/8 |
| Conceded 1 goal | 2/4 | 3/8 |
| Conceded 2 goals | 0/4 | 0/8 |
| Conceded 3+ goals | 0/4 | 2/8 |
| Statistic | Argentina | Benin |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS — Yes | 2/4 | 4/8 |
| BTTS — No | 2/4 | 4/8 |
| Statistic | Argentina | Benin |
|---|---|---|
| HT Win | – | 1/2 |
| HT Draw | – | 0/2 |
| HT Loss | – | 1/2 |
Half-time data unavailable for Argentina.
Benin: based on 2 of 8 matches with half-time data.
| Statistic | Argentina | Benin |
|---|---|---|
| Clean sheets | 2/4 | 3/8 |
| Failed to keep a clean sheet | 2/4 | 5/8 |
Newest match first.
How both teams have been performing.
Argentina’s World Cup final defeat to Spain is the only loss in their last 10 matches. They have won nine of those games, scored 30 goals and then carried that attacking level into the October window with 4-0 and 7-0 home wins.
The recent friendlies were played with substantial rotation, which makes the returns of Messi, De Paul and Lo Celso especially relevant. Argentina’s recent home record is also imposing: five wins, 21 goals scored and only one conceded.
Benin began AFCON qualifying well, taking four points from Burkina Faso and Mauritania, but their broader return is less consistent. They have four wins, two draws and four defeats in their last 10, scoring only nine times.
Away from home, Benin have won twice, drawn once and lost twice in their last five non-neutral matches. The 5-1 defeat in Togo and 4-0 loss in Nigeria underline the difficulty they can have when opponents impose sustained pressure.
Latest squad information before kick-off.
Messi trained with Argentina on 5 October and is expected to start his farewell appearance. De Paul, Lo Celso and Otamendi were reserved for this fixture and are available, while Enzo Fernández is eligible after serving his one-match suspension against Bolivia.
Thiago Almada and Juan Foyth withdrew with muscular injuries. Leandro Paredes and Nahuel Molina are unavailable through reported FIFA suspensions, while Tagliafico’s fitness remained uncertain after missing the first two October friendlies.
Steve Mounié is unavailable through injury, removing Benin’s captain and senior target-forward option. Tosin is therefore expected to lead the line, with Aloko, Olaitan and Dossou among the attacking alternatives.
Reports on 4 October said three Benin players had not yet reached Buenos Aires following the long journey. That was not confirmation of absences, but it adds a possible freshness and preparation concern after the Mauritania qualifier on 29 September.
Argentina are expected to move from the youth-heavy 4-2-2-2 used against Burkina Faso into a 4-3-3. Messi should operate from the right in a free role, with Lautaro Martínez central and Julián Álvarez able to attack from the left or drift inside. De Paul, Enzo Fernández and Mac Allister give Scaloni control in possession and the ability to quickly recycle attacks after Benin clear their lines.
Benin’s likely 4-2-3-1 will depend on D’Almeida and Imourane screening the centre-backs while Olaitan and Aloko look for transition opportunities. That compact approach can frustrate opponents for spells, but it risks leaving Tosin isolated and placing heavy defensive responsibility on Roche and Tijani.
The decisive area should be the space between Benin’s midfield pivot and defensive line. If Messi can receive there and combine with Mac Allister, Lautaro and Álvarez, Argentina should create high-quality chances repeatedly. Set pieces also favour the hosts, with Romero a proven target.
Projected starting lineups for both teams.
Argentina expected XI (4-3-3)
Benin expected XI (4-2-3-1)
Players who could have an important influence on the match.
Expected to start his farewell match and should have freedom to create and finish in the final third.
Has scored in both October friendlies and gives Argentina a sharp penalty-box presence.
Scored against Burkina Faso and can stretch the defence with runs inside from the left.
Has provided assists in both October games and links midfield control to Argentina's attack.
Leads the defensive line and remains a major threat from corners.
Scored both goals against Mauritania and is Benin's most in-form attacking player.
The main striker in Mounié's absence and Benin's likeliest outlet on counterattacks.
Offers ball-carrying pace and transition energy from the attacking midfield line.
The experienced midfielder must help protect Benin's centre-backs against Argentina's combinations.
Likely to face a high volume of attempts and could be crucial if Benin are to stay in the contest.
What the recent numbers suggest about the matchup.
Argentina have scored 30 goals across their last 10 matches, an average of 3.0 per game, and eight of those games finished with over 2.5 goals. Their two October wins alone have produced 11 goals without reply.
Benin have scored nine goals in their last 10 matches and conceded 15. Their recent away record includes nine goals conceded across the last three trips, which is an ominous trend before facing Argentina in Buenos Aires.
The figures support a comfortable Argentina win and a clean sheet is a credible alternative angle. Messi scoring three or more needs an exceptional individual night, but Argentina’s attacking output creates the platform for it.
Argentina should control this friendly from the outset. Their recent 4-0 and 7-0 wins came despite extensive rotation, while Scaloni can now call on Messi and several senior players reserved for this occasion.
Benin are capable of staying compact and breaking through Aloko or Olaitan, but Mounié’s absence weakens their ability to retain the ball high up the pitch. The main selection is Messi to Score 3 or more goals at 2.40, with a 5-0 Argentina victory the predicted score.
The FreeOddsTips prediction is Messi to Score 3 or more goals at 2.40.
The best bet is Messi to Score 3 or more goals at 2.40.
The predicted score is Argentina 5-0 Benin.
Argentina vs Benin is scheduled for 6 October 2026, with kick-off at 23:00.
The match will be played at Estadio Más Monumental in Buenos Aires.
More match previews and predictions from FreeOddsTips.
