Austria begin their 2026/27 UEFA Nations League campaign at home to Israel in League B3, with Ralf Rangnick’s side aiming to make an immediate push for promotion. The hosts come into the group stage after a World Cup campaign which ended against Spain, but their home record before that was strong.
Rangnick will have to reshape his side. Marko Arnautović has retired from international football, while David Alaba, Konrad Laimer, Marcel Sabitzer and Christoph Baumgartner are unavailable. That removes plenty of experience, but Austria still have pace, midfield energy and an established attacking approach.
Israel arrive under Ran Ben Shimon after a 1-0 friendly win in Albania, scored by Oscar Gloukh. Their World Cup qualifying campaign was far more open, though: Israel scored 19 goals in eight qualifiers but conceded 20, including five-goal defeats to both Italy and Norway.
Recent meetings between these teams have also been full of goals. The last five Austria-Israel competitive matches all produced at least four goals, so the market is asking a fair question here. Our prediction is 3-1, with Over 3.5 Goals at odds of 2.37 our best bet.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
Market: Total Goals
Correct Score Prediction: Austria 3-1 Israel
Odds: 2.37
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Expected Goals: Over 3.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: Yes
📅 Date: 24 September 2026
🏟️ Venue: Linz
🏆 Competition: UEFA Nations League
Match Preview
Austria’s Nations League objective is clear: get out of League B and back among the top tier. They scored 14 goals in their previous League B campaign and qualified for the 2026 World Cup with 22 goals in eight matches, so Rangnick’s side are not likely to abandon their front-foot approach simply because this is the opening group game.
The personnel changes do matter. Alaba’s absence takes away a leader from the back line, while Laimer and Sabitzer would normally bring intensity and quality to the middle of the pitch. Austria can still build around Nicolas Seiwald and Xaver Schlager, with Romano Schmid likely to carry more creative responsibility behind the striker. Patrick Wimmer’s direct running can stretch Israel, while Michael Gregoritsch remains the senior focal point following Arnautović’s retirement.
Austria’s latest competitive outing was the 3-0 World Cup defeat to Spain, a game in which they pressed hard but struggled to create enough in the final third. This should be a very different test in Linz. Their previous four competitive home games brought three wins and a draw, with 14 goals scored and only two conceded. They put ten past San Marino, beat Romania 2-1 and also won 1-0 against Cyprus at this venue.
Israel have enough attacking talent to make this uncomfortable for a changed Austria defence. Gloukh scored the winner against Albania in June and is the player most likely to find space between Austria’s midfield and back four. Manor Solomon can carry the ball from the left, while Dor Peretz adds late runs and goals from midfield. Dor Turgeman and Tai Baribo offer Ben Shimon different options through the middle.
There is a clear contrast in Israel’s recent results. They kept a clean sheet in Albania and drew 2-2 in Georgia, but their World Cup qualifying campaign was often chaotic. The 5-4 defeat to Italy showed what they can do going forward, while the 5-0 losses to Norway and the 3-0 defeat in Italy exposed a defence that can struggle when stronger opponents press high and attack with numbers.
Austria’s counter-pressing should force turnovers in promising areas, but it can also leave space if Israel play through the first challenge. With both teams carrying attacking players who are more comfortable going forward than sitting deep, this has the ingredients for a fast and open Nations League opener.
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Why Over 3.5 Goals Makes Sense
At 2.37, Over 3.5 Goals is a price worth taking rather than settling for a short Austria win. Austria should have the better of the ball at home, but their changes at the back and in midfield make a clean, controlled performance less certain than the match-winner market suggests.
The historical match-up strongly supports goals. Austria and Israel have played out scores of 4-2, 5-2 and 3-1 across their recent competitive meetings, and each of the last five produced at least four goals. Those older games do not decide this one, but the styles remain broadly familiar: Austria want to press and play on the front foot, while Israel have enough technical quality in Gloukh and Solomon to punish loose defending.
Austria’s last 10 competitive games produced 22 goals scored and 12 conceded. Israel’s latest 10 senior internationals produced 20 scored and 21 conceded, with Over 2.5 Goals landing in eight of those matches. The line is higher here, but the price reflects that extra goal rather than asking us to back it at an unrealistic number.
For Over 3.5 Goals to land, the match needs four or more goals. Austria doing most of the scoring is one route, especially if Wimmer, Schmid and Gregoritsch click early. Israel contributing is another, and that looks realistic given the visitors’ attacking options and Austria’s missing defensive organiser in Alaba.
The obvious risk is that Israel repeat the discipline they showed in the 1-0 win over Albania and make the first hour tight. Austria also lack several regulars. Still, Israel’s qualifying defence was regularly exposed, while the recent head-to-head record points strongly towards an open game. At this price, the goals line gives us more value than the straight home win.
- ✓Austria scored 22 goals in their last 10 competitive matches.
- ✓Austria’s last four competitive home matches produced 14 goals for and two against.
- ✓Israel scored 19 goals and conceded 20 across eight World Cup qualifiers.
- ✓Israel’s latest 10 senior internationals produced 41 total goals.
- ✓Over 2.5 Goals landed in eight of Israel’s latest 10 senior internationals.
- ✓The last five competitive Austria-Israel meetings all produced at least four goals.
- ✓Israel have lost their last three competitive trips to Austria.
Team News
Austria are without Alaba, who is not match-fit, and Laimer, who has a left-adductor problem. Baumgartner is injured, Sabitzer is taking an agreed international break and Arnautović has retired. Kevin Danso, Philipp Lienhart and Maximilian Wöber are among the options to cover at centre-back, while Phillipp Mwene could fill the left-back role.
Gregoritsch is the leading available Austria scorer with 24 goals in 78 caps, while Saša Kalajdžić provides a powerful alternative if Rangnick wants more height in the box. Junior Adamu has also returned to the squad, and Paul Wanner or Carney Chukwuemeka could be used in the attacking midfield positions.
Israel’s squad includes Daniel Peretz, Dasa, Revivo, Dor Peretz, Gloukh and Solomon after they all featured against Albania. Neta Lavi is absent after an injury-related omission. There are also reported timing concerns around MLS-based players including Turgeman and Baribo, while Gabi Kanichowsky’s availability for the Austria match has been uncertain because of a family commitment.
Ben Shimon has a thinner pool of established centre-backs than he would like, particularly with Stav Lemkin not in the September call-up. That could leave Peretz, Dasa and the midfield screen under sustained pressure if Austria start at their usual tempo.
Possible Starting Lineups
Austria Possible XI
Alexander Schlager; Stefan Posch, Kevin Danso, Philipp Lienhart, Phillipp Mwene; Nicolas Seiwald, Xaver Schlager; Patrick Wimmer, Romano Schmid, Paul Wanner; Michael Gregoritsch
Israel Possible XI
Daniel Peretz; Eli Dasa, Nikita Stoinov, Raz Shlomo, Roy Revivo; Dor Peretz, Mohammad Abu Fani; Anan Khalaili, Oscar Gloukh, Manor Solomon; Dor Turgeman
Players to Watch
Michael Gregoritsch — Austria
Gregoritsch is now Austria’s most experienced available centre-forward and should be the reference point for their attacks. If Wimmer and Schmid can get runners around him, he has the movement and finishing to expose an Israel defence that conceded 20 times in World Cup qualifying.
Romano Schmid — Austria
With Sabitzer and Baumgartner unavailable, Schmid has a bigger creative role. He can link Seiwald and Xaver Schlager with the forward line, and his ability to find pockets behind Israel’s midfield could be important against a side likely to defend in a compact shape at times.
Oscar Gloukh — Israel
Gloukh scored the winner in Albania and assisted in the draw with Georgia. He is Israel’s main player between the lines, and his ability to turn quickly under pressure gives the visitors a genuine chance of scoring when Austria commit bodies forward.
Manor Solomon — Israel
Solomon brings pace and dribbling from the left, although he often moves inside to combine with Gloukh. Austria’s aggressive full-back play can leave channels open, and Solomon is well suited to attacking that space on the break.
Head-to-Head
This has been one of the more goal-heavy international pairings in recent years. Austria won the latest meeting 4-2 in November 2021, while Israel won 5-2 two months earlier. Austria also beat Israel 3-1 in March 2021 and again in October 2019.
Israel have lost each of their last three competitive visits to Austria: 3-1 in 2019, 3-1 in 2021 and 4-2 in 2021. Across 13 previous meetings, Austria have six wins, Israel three and there have been four draws.
Final Verdict
Austria should create enough at home to win this match, even with several established names missing. Rangnick’s pressing style, Wimmer’s pace and Gregoritsch’s experience give the hosts plenty of ways to hurt Israel, particularly if the visitors struggle to settle their defensive selection.
Israel are not short of attacking quality, though. Gloukh and Solomon can make an impact in transition, and the visitors’ World Cup qualifying record showed they are capable of scoring freely even when the defending falls apart around them.
The main risk is a cautious opening from Israel, but this fixture’s recent history, Austria’s home scoring and Israel’s volatile results point towards chances at both ends. Over 3.5 Goals at 2.37 is the best value pick, with a 3-1 Austria win the correct-score prediction.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
Austria have the stronger home record and should take control for long spells, but Israel have enough quality in the final third to contribute to an open contest. Over 3.5 Goals remains attractive at 2.37 because recent meetings and Israel’s qualifying numbers both point towards a match with plenty of chances.
Best Bet: Over 3.5 Goals
Odds: 2.37
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Correct Score: Austria 3-1 Israel
