Belgium host France at the King Baudouin Stadium on Monday night with both sides having made winning starts to their UEFA Nations League campaign. The Red Devils were excellent in their 2-0 win away to Italy, while France needed a Kylian Mbappé goal to edge past Türkiye.
Mark van Bommel could hardly have asked for a better first result as Belgium coach. His team pressed Italy aggressively, played with confidence in possession and carried a real threat through Kevin De Bruyne, Mika Godts and Charles De Ketelaere.
France remain packed with quality, but this is a different test after a demanding trip to Türkiye. Mbappé is now out with a knee problem, Zinédine Zidane has said rotation is likely, and Belgium arrive in Brussels full of belief after their display in Rome.
France have won the last five meetings, so the visitors cannot be dismissed. Still, Belgium should be competitive on home soil and the handicap gives us cover if this finishes level. Our prediction is 1-1, with Belgium Asian Handicap +0.5 at odds of 2.05 our best bet.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Belgium Asian Handicap +0.5
Market: Asian Handicap
Correct Score Prediction: Belgium 1-1 France
Odds: 2.05
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Expected Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: Yes
📅 Date: 2026-09-28
🏟️ Venue: King Baudouin Stadium, Brussels
🏆 Competition: UEFA Nations League
Match Preview
Belgium set the early pace in Group A1 after winning 2-0 in Italy, a result that put them top on goal difference. They were especially sharp before the break, registering a 14-4 advantage on shots in the first half. Godts punished an Italian mistake after De Bruyne released him, before Dodi Lukébakio settled the game from the bench.
Van Bommel used a flexible 4-2-3-1, with De Ketelaere dropping off as a false nine rather than staying between the centre-backs. That gave De Bruyne room to operate in advanced areas, while Godts and Diego Moreira attacked from wide positions. Tielemans and Nicolas Raskin supplied the control behind them, and Belgium were quick to turn regains into attacks.
That performance also backed up a strong World Cup run. Belgium scored 15 goals across their last five competitive matches, including four against the USA and five against New Zealand. There is more than one way for them to hurt France: De Ketelaere can link play, Lukaku and Loïs Openda offer a more direct option, and Lukébakio has shown he can change a match from the bench.
France won 1-0 in Türkiye in Zidane’s first game in charge, but it was not a straightforward evening. Michael Olise created Mbappé’s winner after France won the ball high up the pitch, and Mike Maignan helped preserve a clean sheet. The early signs were of a 4-3-3 built around technical players, with Rayan Cherki moving inside, Olise providing width and Ousmane Dembélé used centrally.
The problem for France is that Mbappé will not be involved in Brussels after suffering a left-knee tendon lesion in Türkiye. Dembélé is expected to captain the side, while Désiré Doué and Bradley Barcola are obvious candidates to take on more responsibility in attack. Olise remains a major source of invention, but France lose the pace and ruthless finishing Mbappé brings from the left.
Zidane also has a crowded schedule to manage, with Italy to come on 2 October before another meeting with Belgium on 5 October. He has already indicated that a few changes are likely. France are still dangerous through Dembélé, Olise and the midfield running of Manu Koné and Adrien Rabiot, but Belgium look well placed to make their new coach’s home debut uncomfortable.
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Why Belgium Asian Handicap +0.5 Makes Sense
At 2.05, I prefer Belgium Asian Handicap +0.5 to trying to call an outright winner. Belgium do not need to win for this bet to land: a home victory or a draw is enough. That is valuable protection in a match between two talented sides who have both started the group with three points.
The strongest reason is Belgium’s performance in Italy. Van Bommel’s side did not simply sit in and steal a result; they pressed well, controlled large spells and created enough chances to lead comfortably at half-time. De Bruyne’s passing, Godts’ direct running and De Ketelaere’s movement as a false nine can all ask questions of a France defence that may be adjusted after the Türkiye game.
France are rightly respected, particularly after five consecutive wins over Belgium, but the price needs to reflect Mbappé’s absence. His goal decided the Türkiye match, and Zidane must now reshape his front line while managing minutes during a four-game spell. Dembélé and Olise can still produce a moment of quality, but France are less straightforward to back away from home without their captain.
The main risk is France’s individual class. Maignan, Koundé, Upamecano, Rabiot and Dembélé give them a strong spine, and a narrow France win would beat this selection. However, Belgium’s recent attacking form and home backing make a draw very realistic. From a betting point of view, the +0.5 line gives us a much better route than opposing France outright.
- ✓Belgium opened Group A1 with a 2-0 away win over Italy.
- ✓France beat Türkiye 1-0 in Zinédine Zidane's first match as head coach.
- ✓Kylian Mbappé is out after suffering a left-knee tendon lesion against Türkiye.
- ✓Belgium scored 15 goals across their last five competitive fixtures.
- ✓France have won each of the last five meetings with Belgium.
- ✓Belgium's latest home qualifying results include wins over Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan and Wales.
- ✓Mika Godts scored and Dodi Lukébakio came off the bench to score against Italy.
Team News
Belgium are without Thibaut Courtois for this Nations League window after he agreed with Van Bommel to skip the competition. Senne Lammens therefore looks set to continue after his clean sheet in Rome. Jérémy Doku is injured and Amadou Onana is still recovering from an ACL problem, while Leandro Trossard has been managing a reported heel issue.
Van Bommel may keep faith with the side that beat Italy, although Lukébakio has made a strong case after scoring as a substitute. Lukaku is available but is still building fitness, so De Ketelaere could again lead the line in the more fluid role that worked so well in Rome. Roméo Lavia and Hans Vanaken are among the experienced options if Belgium rotate.
France’s key absence is Mbappé, who has left the camp after his knee injury against Türkiye. Dembélé will captain the team in his absence. Zidane has also said he intends to make some changes, so Camavinga, Doué and Barcola could all push for starts after appearing from the bench in the opener.
Possible Starting Lineups
Belgium Possible XI
Lammens; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; Raskin, Tielemans; Moreira, De Bruyne, Godts; De Ketelaere
France Possible XI
Maignan; Koundé, Upamecano, Lacroix, Truffert; Cherki, Koné, Rabiot; Olise, Dembélé, Doué
Players to Watch
Kevin De Bruyne — Belgium
De Bruyne supplied the pass for Godts’ opener in Italy and remains Belgium’s most important creator. If De Ketelaere again drops into pockets, De Bruyne should find spaces around France’s midfield to play the final ball.
Mika Godts — Belgium
Godts took his first senior international goal brilliantly in Rome. His willingness to run directly at defenders gives Belgium a threat on the left, especially when De Cuyper overlaps.
Michael Olise — France
Olise created Mbappé’s winner in Türkiye and becomes even more important with France’s leading forward unavailable. Belgium will need to stop him receiving freely on the right and cutting inside onto his left foot.
Ousmane Dembélé — France
Dembélé is expected to lead France as captain and can operate through the middle or drift wide. His movement is France’s biggest attacking weapon, although Belgium’s centre-backs handled Italy’s forwards well last time out.
Head-to-Head
France have won the last five meetings with Belgium. Their most recent visit to Brussels ended in a 2-1 Nations League win in October 2024, while France also won 2-0 at home in the same group and beat Belgium 1-0 at Euro 2024.
The longer-term record favours France, including their famous 3-2 comeback in the 2021 Nations League semi-final after Belgium had led 2-0. Those results are a reminder of France’s quality, but Belgium’s current performance level and France’s team news make this a tighter game than the historical run alone suggests.
Final Verdict
Belgium’s display against Italy was one of the more convincing opening-week performances in the group. They have a clear attacking structure under Van Bommel, confidence from a strong World Cup and enough quality in De Bruyne, Godts and De Ketelaere to test France.
France can still win through Dembélé or Olise, and their recent head-to-head record deserves respect. Yet Mbappé’s confirmed absence and Zidane’s likely rotation make the away win less appealing. Belgium Asian Handicap +0.5 at 2.05 covers the draw, which is why it remains the selection. The expected pattern is a close match with periods of French possession and Belgium carrying a threat when they press or break quickly. Correct-score prediction: Belgium 1-1 France.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
Belgium should be encouraged by their controlled win in Italy and now have the home crowd behind them for Van Bommel’s first match in Brussels. France remain a serious opponent, but replacing Mbappé is a major task in such a short turnaround.
The handicap is the sensible play because Belgium can win or draw and still make the bet pay. A tight contest looks more likely than a comfortable away victory.
Best Bet: Belgium Asian Handicap +0.5
Odds: 2.05
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Correct Score: Belgium 1-1 France
