Borussia Dortmund welcome newly promoted SC Paderborn to SIGNAL IDUNA PARK for Bundesliga Matchday 3 on Saturday. Niko Kovač’s side have made a strong start to the new league season, winning both matches before adding a dramatic Champions League victory over Villarreal in midweek.
Dortmund have been especially dangerous going forward. Serhou Guirassy already has five goals across the Super Cup, Bundesliga and Champions League, while Fábio Silva, Maximilian Beier and the new midfield signing Joey Veerman have given Kovač several different ways to open teams up.
Paderborn have started with a respectable point at Mainz and only a narrow defeat to Freiburg, but Ralf Kettemann’s side are still waiting for their first Bundesliga goal. They were positive after half-time against Freiburg, yet missed the chances that came their way.
This is a major test of Paderborn’s back-three system against a Dortmund side that have scored freely at home. Our prediction is 3-0, with Dortmund Asian Handicap -2 at odds of 2.10 our best bet.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Dortmund Asian Handicap -2
Market: Asian Handicap
Correct Score Prediction: 3-0
Odds: 2.10
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Expected Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: No
📅 Date: 12 September 2026
🏟️ Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK
🏆 Competition: Bundesliga
Match Preview
Dortmund sit third after two Bundesliga rounds, level on six points with the early leaders, and their opening results have backed up the expectation that they will again challenge near the top. They beat Hamburger SV 2-0 in their first league game before coming from behind to win 3-2 at Hoffenheim. Tuesday’s 3-2 Champions League win over Villarreal made it four consecutive competitive victories.
The Villarreal result was not entirely comfortable, particularly after Dortmund conceded late, but it showed the depth Kovač has at his disposal in attacking areas. Guirassy scored twice, Fábio Silva came off the bench to set up the key goal, and Jobe Bellingham helped Dortmund regain control in midfield. Dortmund can change a game without losing their attacking edge.
Kovač has largely settled on a 3-4-2-1 shape. Waldemar Anton is the organiser in the middle of the defence, with Julian Ryerson providing energy and quality from the right. Veerman gives Dortmund a calm passing option from deeper areas, while Felix Nmecha can carry the ball forward and support the press. With Beier, Marcel Sabitzer, Ethan Nwaneri and Silva around Guirassy, Paderborn will struggle to keep track of runners between the lines as well as the threat from wide areas.
Paderborn have not arrived simply to sit deep. Kettemann used a back-three system in the first two league matches, with Laurin Curda and Raphael Obermair asked to cover huge distances on the flanks. They pressed Mainz well in the 0-0 draw, then had 60% possession against Freiburg, although they lost 1-0 after failing to convert several second-half openings.
That proactive approach has earned Paderborn some encouragement, but Dortmund are a different level of opponent, especially in this stadium. Gabriel Vidović is tasked with linking midfield and attack, while Marvin Pieringer has led the line in both Bundesliga fixtures. Rayan Philippe was handed a debut start against Freiburg, but Steffen Tigges made a credible case for selection after replacing him at half-time. The problem is clear: Paderborn have had 23 shots on goal across two league matches but have scored none.
They will need Nahuel Noll and the Scheller-Hansen-ter Horst defensive unit to have an excellent afternoon. Paderborn can make the game competitive for spells if Castañeda and Laurin Ulrich protect the central spaces, but Dortmund’s pace, movement and bench options should tell over 90 minutes.
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Why Dortmund Asian Handicap -2 Makes Sense
The straight Dortmund win is likely to be short, so the Dortmund Asian Handicap -2 is the more interesting route at 2.10. Dortmund need to win by three or more goals for a full winner. If they win by exactly two, the stake is returned; only a draw, Paderborn win or one-goal Dortmund win loses the bet.
That extra protection matters. Dortmund have scored three goals in each of their last two home games in all competitions, beating Villarreal 3-2 and producing a controlled 2-0 league win against Hamburg before that. Their latest five competitive home matches have brought four wins, 14 goals scored and only five conceded.
The matchup suits Dortmund’s attacking strengths. Paderborn’s wing-backs will be occupied by Ryerson and Beier or Svensson, while Guirassy can pin the central defenders and create room for Dortmund’s advanced midfielders. Guirassy is in excellent form, but this is not a one-man attack: Veerman can pick passes from deep, Sabitzer arrives into dangerous areas, and Silva has made a real impact from the bench.
The main risk is that Paderborn defend bravely and Noll produces another strong display. Kettemann’s side have conceded only once in two Bundesliga games, and their 0-0 draw at Mainz shows they can keep a compact shape. But they have yet to score in the league, and that leaves very little margin for error against a Dortmund team with far more firepower. At this price, the -2 line looks worth backing.
- ✓Dortmund have won their first two Bundesliga matches.
- ✓Dortmund have won four consecutive competitive matches.
- ✓Dortmund have scored 14 goals in their last five competitive home matches.
- ✓Serhou Guirassy has scored five goals across Dortmund's opening four competitive fixtures.
- ✓Paderborn have one point and no goals after two Bundesliga matches.
- ✓Paderborn have conceded only one goal in their first two league fixtures.
- ✓The last Bundesliga meeting at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK finished Dortmund 3-3 Paderborn.
Team News
Dortmund remain without Giannis Konstantelias, Emre Can, Nico Schlotterbeck, Filippo Mane and Justin Lerma. Samuele Inácio is suspended for this Bundesliga match. Ramy Bensebaini returned to the squad after bruised ribs and is available again domestically following his Champions League suspension. Konstantinos Karetsas was withdrawn early against Villarreal, so Kovač may assess him carefully before naming his side.
Paderborn are without Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant, Lasse Eickel, Timur Gayret and Sven Michel. Sebastian Klaas is doubtful with a groin issue. Stefano Marino was fit enough to come off the bench against Freiburg, while Philippe, Tigges and Oliver Batista Meier are competing for attacking places around Pieringer and Vidović.
Possible Starting Lineups
Dortmund Possible XI
Kobel; Gadou, Anton, Bensebaini; Ryerson, Veerman, Nmecha, Svensson; Nwaneri, Sabitzer; Guirassy
Paderborn Possible XI
Noll; ter Horst, Scheller, Hansen; Curda, Ulrich, Castañeda, Obermair; Vidović; Philippe, Pieringer
Players to Watch
Serhou Guirassy — Dortmund
Guirassy has five goals across Dortmund’s opening four competitive fixtures. He is the obvious penalty-box threat, but his assist for Silva at Hoffenheim also showed how well he can bring other attackers into play.
Joey Veerman — Dortmund
Veerman has quickly become important to Dortmund’s build-up. His passing range can pull Paderborn’s midfield apart, particularly if the away side commit bodies forward with Curda and Obermair.
Laurin Curda — Paderborn
Curda’s running and end product from wing-back were major features of Paderborn’s promotion campaign. He will need to offer an outlet on the break while also dealing with Dortmund’s overloads down his flank.
Marvin Pieringer — Paderborn
Pieringer has had chances in both league games but is still searching for his first Bundesliga goal of the season. If Paderborn are to threaten, his ability to hold the ball up against Anton will be important.
Head-to-Head
The most recent competitive meeting came in the DFB-Pokal in February 2021, when Dortmund won 3-2 after extra time at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK. Paderborn fought back from two goals down before Erling Haaland settled the tie.
The last Bundesliga meeting in Dortmund ended 3-3 in November 2019, while Dortmund won the return game 6-1 in Paderborn in May 2020. Paderborn have also lost 3-0 on their other Bundesliga visit to Dortmund, in April 2015.
Final Verdict
Paderborn have shown enough organisation to avoid writing them off completely, and their recent league defending has been tidy. Yet this is a big step up after Mainz and Freiburg, with Dortmund in form, at home and carrying goal threats across the front line.
Dortmund’s midweek exertions are the obvious concern, while Paderborn’s back three could frustrate them for a period. Still, Guirassy’s form, the quality around him and Kovač’s attacking options point towards a clear home win. At 2.10, Dortmund Asian Handicap -2 remains the pick, with a 3-0 correct-score prediction.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
Dortmund should have too much attacking quality for a Paderborn side still looking for its first Bundesliga goal. The handicap asks for a convincing home display, but a two-goal Dortmund win returns the stake and their recent home scoring makes a larger margin realistic.
Best Bet: Dortmund Asian Handicap -2
Odds: 2.10
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Correct Score: Dortmund 3-0 Paderborn
