Union Berlin and Schalke 04 meet at Stadion An der Alten Försterei on Friday night with both clubs still waiting for their first Bundesliga win of the season. They each have one point from two games, so there is already plenty riding on an early-season contest between two sides expected to battle hard for every point.
Union’s start has been eventful. Mauro Lustrinelli’s side drew 3-3 with Eintracht Frankfurt before suffering a 4-0 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen, a result which exposed the work still needed in a reshaped defence. Back in Berlin, though, Union will expect to be more competitive and much harder to play through.
Schalke arrive with confidence after holding Bayern Munich to a goalless draw. Miron Muslić’s side have not scored in either Bundesliga match, but their disciplined display against the champions showed they can stay compact, defend their box and make life uncomfortable for stronger opponents.
This looks like a game in which neither team will want to give away an early advantage. Our prediction is Union Berlin 1-1 Schalke 04, with Under 2.5 Goals at odds of 2.50 our best bet.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Market: Total Goals
Correct Score Prediction: Union Berlin 1-1 Schalke 04
Odds: 2.50
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Expected Goals: Under 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: Yes
📅 Date: 11 September 2026
🏟️ Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei
🏆 Competition: Bundesliga
Match Preview
Union need a response after Leverkusen swept them aside, but the scoreline should not lead to an overreaction. Leverkusen had Union pinned back for long spells and limited them to very little attacking threat. Schalke will not dominate the ball in the same way, and the match should be much more physical and direct.
Lustrinelli has used a 4-4-2 in all three competitive games so far. The shape is built around getting the ball into Emmanuel Latte Lath and Marin Ljubičić early, with the full-backs supporting from wide areas. Josip Juranović’s deliveries and Tom Rothe’s crossing are important, while Rani Khedira and Aljoscha Kemlein have to give the side more control than they managed at Leverkusen.
There are still clear adjustment issues after a busy summer, particularly at centre-back following the departures of Danilho Doekhi and Diogo Leite. Felix Uduokhai made his debut in the heavy loss last weekend, while Zeno Van den Bosch has started every competitive match. A return for Leopold Querfeld would add a little more familiarity to the back line.
Schalke’s opening two league games could hardly have been more contrasting. They lost 3-0 at Augsburg after Ron Schallenberg’s sending-off left them with 10 men, then defended superbly to take a 0-0 draw against Bayern Munich. Bayern created the better chances, but Loris Karius made several big saves and Schalke’s back three stood up well under sustained pressure.
Muslić is likely to keep his 3-4-2-1 system. Timo Becker, Nikola Katić and Hasan Kuruçay give Schalke a strong base in the air, while Robin Gosens and Junior Dina Ebimbe offer width when the visitors can push forward. Soufiane El-Faouzi and Satoshi Tanaka will be asked to compete with Union’s central midfield before Dejan Ljubičić and Adil Aouchiche look to feed Moussa Sylla.
Schalke have yet to score in the Bundesliga, which matters when assessing this total-goals line. Their five goals at Hallescher FC came after extra time in the DFB-Pokal, but their league approach has been more cautious. Muslić has already said he expects a more vertical and physical match than the Bayern game, and that points towards a contest of second balls, crosses and set pieces rather than an open end-to-end affair.
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Why Under 2.5 Goals Makes Sense
The obvious concern with this selection is Union’s recent scorelines. Their first two Bundesliga matches produced 10 goals, while their wider last-10 run has seen eight games go over 2.5 goals. However, this is a very different matchup from facing Frankfurt or Leverkusen. Union were badly exposed by high-level opposition last weekend and should place far more emphasis on staying compact after conceding seven league goals already.
Schalke can help keep the match in that range. Their point against Bayern was built on a deep, organised block, and Karius was in outstanding form behind it. Muslić will know that Union are most dangerous when Juranović and Rothe can supply the front two, so stopping crosses and winning first contacts in the penalty area will be central to the away plan.
At 2.50, Under 2.5 Goals is a price worth taking because it allows for the likely tight draw as well as a narrow win for either side. A 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 or 1-1 scoreline all land the bet. Union may have more of the initiative at home, but Schalke do not need to chase the game and have shown that they can sit in when necessary.
The main risk is an early goal. Union’s home matches have been lively recently, and Schalke conceded three at Augsburg in their opening fixture. But with both clubs on one point, and Schalke still scoreless in the league, I expect a more cautious match than the recent Union results suggest.
- ✓Union Berlin and Schalke 04 both have one point from their first two Bundesliga matches.
- ✓Union lost 4-0 at Bayer Leverkusen in their latest Bundesliga outing.
- ✓Schalke held Bayern Munich to a 0-0 draw last weekend.
- ✓Schalke have not scored in either Bundesliga match this season.
- ✓Loris Karius was named Man of the Match in Schalke's draw with Bayern.
- ✓Four of the six Bundesliga meetings between these teams since Union's promotion have ended level.
- ✓Schalke's three previous Bundesliga visits to Union all finished as draws.
- ✓Ron Schallenberg is suspended for Schalke.
Team News
Union remain without Andrik Markgraf, Stanley Nsoki and Oliver Burke. Andrej Ilić is doubtful through illness, while Kastriot Imeri is also a doubt with a thigh problem. Frederik Rønnow returned in goal at Leverkusen and is expected to continue, while Querfeld could come back into the defence after missing the last game.
Schalke are without suspended midfielder Ron Schallenberg, so Tanaka is expected to continue alongside El-Faouzi. Emil Højlund is out with an Achilles issue. Bryan Lasme and Adrian Gantenbein have returned to full training, while deadline-day arrival Hee-chan Hwang is expected to be involved in the matchday squad for the first time.
Possible Starting Lineups
Union Berlin Possible XI
Rønnow; Juranović; Querfeld; Uduokhai; Rothe; Aebischer; Khedira; Kemlein; Burcu; Latte Lath; Marin Ljubičić
Schalke 04 Possible XI
Karius; Timo Becker; Katić; Kuruçay; Dina Ebimbe; El-Faouzi; Tanaka; Gosens; Dejan Ljubičić; Aouchiche; Sylla
Players to Watch
Emmanuel Latte Lath — Union Berlin
Latte Lath scored with his first Bundesliga touch against Frankfurt and gives Union pace around the box. Schalke’s centre-backs will want to prevent him from turning direct passes into running opportunities.
Rani Khedira — Union Berlin
Union’s captain has an important job after the Leverkusen defeat. Khedira needs to screen the defence, compete for loose balls and keep the game in Union’s control when Schalke try to break quickly.
Loris Karius — Schalke 04
Karius was Bundesliga Man of the Match against Bayern after a string of important saves. If Union build pressure through crosses and set pieces, the goalkeeper could again be the player who keeps Schalke level.
Robin Gosens — Schalke 04
Gosens returns to a ground where he knows the club well after making 39 competitive appearances for Union in 2023/24. His battle with Juranović on Schalke’s left side could shape how much attacking width either team gets.
Head-to-Head
The most recent meeting at the Alten Försterei finished 0-0 in February 2023. The Bundesliga head-to-head record since Union’s promotion is also tight: there have been four draws in six meetings, with one win apiece.
Schalke’s three previous Bundesliga visits to Union all ended level: 1-1 in June 2020, followed by 0-0 draws in February 2021 and February 2023. Those old results do not decide this match, but they fit the expectation of another close contest in Berlin.
Final Verdict
Union should be far more competitive at home than they were at Leverkusen, but the pressure to avoid another setback may make Lustrinelli’s side more measured. Schalke showed against Bayern that they can defend their penalty area well, even if their lack of Bundesliga goals remains a concern.
There is enough attacking quality on both benches for the game to open up if an early goal arrives, which is the main danger. Still, the likely pattern is a physical contest with limited clean chances rather than another shoot-out. At 2.50, Under 2.5 Goals remains the best bet, with Union Berlin 1-1 Schalke 04 the correct-score prediction.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
Neither side has made the start it wanted, and a point would have real value for both at this stage of the season. Schalke’s defensive discipline, combined with Union’s need to tighten up after their Leverkusen loss, makes a low-scoring draw the most appealing outcome. More Bundesliga picks.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds: 2.50
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Correct Score: Union Berlin 1-1 Schalke 04
