Hibernian and Hearts meet at Easter Road on Thursday night with both Edinburgh clubs sitting on six points from their opening three Premiership matches.
David Gray’s Hibs have recovered from an opening defeat to Motherwell by winning 2-1 away to Rangers and Dundee. Hearts have also won their last two league games, while Wouter Vrancken’s side are unbeaten in six competitive matches after securing their place in the UEFA Conference League league phase.
Hearts came extremely close to winning the title last season, but this is a new campaign under a new head coach. Both teams have started with plenty of attacking intent, yet neither has looked particularly secure at the back. That makes the goals market more appealing than trying to pick a winner in a derby that could turn on one incident.
Our prediction is 2-1, with Over 2.5 Goals at odds of 1.95 our best bet.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Market: Total Goals
Correct Score Prediction: Hibernian 2-1 Hearts
Odds: 1.95
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Expected Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: Yes
📅 Date: Thursday 3 September 2026
🏟️ Venue: Easter Road, Edinburgh
🏆 Competition: Scottish Premiership
Match Preview
Hibernian return to league duty after an intense August that included Premiership, Premier Sports Cup and European matches. Their Conference League campaign ended painfully against Gent, with Hibs surrendering a late lead in a 3-2 home defeat, but the domestic response was encouraging.
Gray’s side went to Dens Park and deservedly beat Dundee 2-1. Hibernian had 61% possession and seven shots on target, with Martin Boyle opening the scoring before Callum Wright added the second. Dundee pulled one back late, continuing a league trend in which Hibs have scored twice but conceded in all three matches.
The recent 4-3-3 has given Hibernian a good balance. Jacob Devaney can sit deeper and help them play through midfield, allowing Josh Mulligan and Wright to make more aggressive runs. Boyle starts from the right but frequently moves inside or runs beyond the centre-forward, while Jamie McGrath looks for pockets of space from the opposite flank.
Felix Passlack is another important part of the attack. The right-back pushes forward whenever possible and has already contributed goals and an assist this season. That width can help Hibs stretch Hearts, although it may also leave space for Josh McPake or Calvin Miller if possession is lost.
Hearts arrive in strong form. Their first four competitive games under Vrancken ended in defeat, but they have since put together a six-match unbeaten run, scoring 17 goals during that sequence. They have also scored at least twice in five of those six games.
The latest victory was another 2-1 result, this time at home to St Johnstone. James Wilson and Laurent Mendy gave Hearts a two-goal lead before half-time, but the second period was less convincing. St Johnstone scored from a direct ball over the defensive line and created further chances, with Beau Reus needed to protect the advantage.
Vrancken generally uses a 4-2-3-1. Mendy and Tómas Magnússon give Hearts strength in central midfield, while Cláudio Braga operates behind Wilson and links with the wide attackers. McPake is direct, Sabah Kerjota can beat defenders and Miller offers goals from the bench or starting XI.
That attacking depth is one reason Hearts have been so productive recently. Wilson has scored three times in four appearances, Miller has contributed four goals across recent matches and Braga remains an important link between midfield and attack.
The problem is at the other end. Hearts have recorded only one clean sheet in their last 10 competitive matches. Hibernian have also conceded in every Premiership game, so both sides should believe they can score.
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Why Over 2.5 Goals Makes Sense
This selection needs at least three match goals. Our 2-1 correct-score prediction would therefore be enough for the bet to win.
The first reason to like Over 2.5 Goals is the way Hibernian’s home matches have developed. Four of their five competitive games at Easter Road this season have produced at least three goals, with Hibs scoring in all five. Both teams have scored in four of those fixtures.
Hearts have an even stronger goals trend. Eight of their last 10 competitive matches have gone over this line, including all four of their away games this season. Those trips have produced 18 goals in total, although heavy European defeats against Benfica and Sturm Graz make that number look more dramatic.
The domestic evidence still supports an open game. Hearts lost 2-1 at Aberdeen after leading late, then recorded league wins of 4-0 and 2-1. Hibernian’s three Premiership results have all finished 2-1, with Gray’s side showing that they can create chances without shutting opponents out.
The tactical matchup also helps. Boyle’s runs behind the defence could test a Hearts back line that struggled with direct passes against St Johnstone. At the other end, Hearts have several players capable of attacking the space left when Passlack and Jordan Obita move forward.
There is also danger from dead-ball situations. Hearts have already scored from corners and free-kick situations this season, while Altena’s deliveries and the height of Magnússon and Mendy give Hibernian another problem to manage.
The main risk is the occasion. Edinburgh derbies can become tense and fragmented, particularly if the first half is dominated by fouls and neither side wants to make the opening mistake.
Even so, 1.95 looks a fair price when set against the early numbers. Hibs have seen Over 2.5 land in six of their last 10 matches, Hearts have done so in eight, and clean sheets have been rare for both teams. From a betting point of view, I prefer backing goals to choosing between two closely matched sides.
- ✓Hibernian's three Premiership matches have all finished 2-1
- ✓Hibernian have scored in all five competitive home matches this season
- ✓Four of Hibernian's five home games have produced Over 2.5 Goals
- ✓Hearts have scored at least twice in five of their last six matches
- ✓Eight of Hearts' last 10 competitive matches produced Over 2.5 Goals
- ✓Hearts have kept only one clean sheet in their last 10 matches
- ✓Hearts have won three of the last four Edinburgh derbies
Team News
Hibernian remain without Rocky Bushiri because of an Achilles injury. Warren O’Hora has completed a move to Leicester City, leaving Gray with another defensive change to manage before the derby.
New signing Marko Ivezić was announced subject to international clearance and visa approval, so his availability should not be assumed. Grant Hanley partnered Jason Kerr against Dundee and could keep his place if Gray retains the winning XI. Owen Elding missed the Dundee squad following a recent fitness concern and may need assessing.
Hearts are expected to be without Tom Renaud, Eduardo Ageu, Craig Halkett, Malachi Fagan-Walcott and Stephen Kingsley. Renaud was carried off early during the European match against Rapid Vienna and did not feature against St Johnstone.
There are no confirmed domestic suspensions for either side. Magnússon and Miguel Chaiwa received red cards in UEFA competition, but both remain available for Premiership selection.
JJ Williams was on the Hearts bench for the latest league game and could offer a different centre-forward option. New winger Aron Benjaminsen was awaiting the necessary approval and international clearance following his arrival.
Possible Starting Lineups
Hibernian Possible XI
Raphael Sallinger; Felix Passlack; Jason Kerr; Grant Hanley; Jordan Obita; Josh Mulligan; Jacob Devaney; Callum Wright; Martin Boyle; Nathan Lowe; Jamie McGrath
Hearts Possible XI
Beau Reus; Christian Borchgrevink; Oisín McEntee; Stuart Findlay; Jordi Altena; Tómas Magnússon; Laurent Mendy; Sabah Kerjota; Cláudio Braga; Josh McPake; James Wilson
Players to Watch
Martin Boyle — Hibernian
Boyle remains Hibs’ main threat when games become stretched. He has scored in two of his first three league appearances and his movement inside from the right could cause problems behind Hearts’ attacking left-back.
Jacob Devaney — Hibernian
Devaney impressed on his league debut against Dundee. His passing from the deeper midfield role helped Hibernian control possession and allowed Wright and Mulligan to attack more freely.
James Wilson — Hearts
Wilson has earned the centre-forward role by scoring three times in four appearances. His movement around Kerr and Hanley will be important if Hearts can move the ball quickly into the final third.
Josh McPake — Hearts
McPake scored against Dundee United and created Wilson’s opener against St Johnstone. His direct running could be especially dangerous when Hibernian’s full-backs push high.
Head-to-Head
Hearts have won three of the last four Edinburgh derbies. They recorded 1-0 home victories in October 2025 and February 2026 before winning 2-1 at Easter Road in April.
Hibernian’s victory during that sequence was a 3-2 home win in December 2025, another result that supports the possibility of goals on Thursday.
The latest meeting needs context. Hibs led through Boyle but finished with nine players after Raphael Sallinger and Passlack were sent off. An own goal and Blair Spittal’s late winner completed the Hearts comeback.
The two league derbies at Easter Road last season produced eight goals between them, with one win for each club.
Final Verdict
Both teams enter the derby with reasons to be confident.
Hibernian have won their last two league matches and looked in control for long spells at Dundee. Hearts are unbeaten in six competitive games and have found several different sources of goals under Vrancken.
The concern for an Over 2.5 bet is that the derby atmosphere leads to a cautious opening. That risk is real, but the two defences have given opponents regular chances and neither side has been collecting clean sheets.
Hibs have scored in every home match this season, while Hearts have scored at least twice in five of their last six games. With Boyle, Wright, Wilson, Braga and McPake all capable of contributing, there should be enough attacking quality for three goals.
At odds of 1.95, Over 2.5 Goals remains our best bet. I expect Hibernian to make home advantage count in a close, open derby, with a final score of Hibernian 2-1 Hearts.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
Hibernian’s recent league momentum and home advantage could give them a narrow edge, but Hearts should create chances of their own. With both defences conceding regularly, Over 2.5 Goals remains the strongest selection.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.95
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Correct Score: Hibernian 2-1 Hearts
