Manchester United face Brighton at Old Trafford on Wednesday night in the EFL Cup third round, with Michael Carrick’s side trying to respond quickly after a disappointing derby defeat.
United lost 1-0 to Manchester City on Sunday despite playing against 10 men from the 23rd minute. They have had some big attacking performances already this season, including a 5-2 win over Ipswich and a 4-0 Champions League victory over Sabah, but the opening weeks have also exposed a lack of control. They have conceded in all four Premier League games.
Brighton arrive in much better league form. Fabian Hürzeler’s team put five past Coventry at the weekend and have scored 13 Premier League goals in four matches. Their quick combinations, strong possession game and set-piece threat can test a United side that did not look organised against City.
United are always capable of producing a response at Old Trafford, especially with Bruno Fernandes and Bryan Mbeumo in the side. However, Brighton have a strong recent record in this fixture and do not need to win for our selection to land.
Our prediction is Manchester United 1-2 Brighton, with Brighton X2 at odds of 2.20 our best bet.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Brighton X2
Market: Double Chance
Correct Score Prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Brighton
Odds: 2.20
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Expected Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: Yes
📅 Date: 16 September 2026
🏟️ Venue: Old Trafford
🏆 Competition: EFL Cup
Match Preview
Carrick has largely used a 4-2-3-1, with Kobbie Mainoo and summer signing Youri Tielemans forming the midfield base and Bruno Fernandes operating between the lines. The shape can become more adventurous when the full-backs move forward, but that has left United open at times. Hull scored twice against them, Everton scored twice and City found the winner even after Phil Foden’s early red card.
The derby was particularly frustrating because United could not turn long spells against 10 men into enough clear chances. Matheus Cunha led the line, with Marcus Rashford and Mbeumo either side of Fernandes, yet City kept the central areas crowded and United struggled to break them down. Carrick may therefore turn to Benjamin Šeško in the cup. The Slovenian gives United a more direct focal point and has already scored against Everton and Sabah.
There is still plenty of attacking quality in the home squad. Fernandes has scored four competitive goals this season, including a hat-trick against Ipswich, while Mbeumo has scored twice in the league. Mainoo can carry the ball through midfield and Lisandro Martínez offers aggression and passing quality from defence. The concern is whether the collective shape is solid enough when Brighton move the ball quickly through midfield.
Brighton have been much sharper in possession. Hürzeler’s side used a 4-2-3-1 shape at Coventry, with Pascal Groß and Yasin Ayari controlling the middle, while Malick Yalcouyé operated higher up. Their 5-0 win was not simply a case of taking advantage after Coventry’s red card; Brighton were already controlling the game and continued to create chances through fast passing moves and strong work around the penalty area.
Groß was outstanding at Coventry with one goal and two assists, Kostoulas scored and won the penalty, while Yalcouyé, Lewis Dunk and Ayari also found the net. Maxim De Cuyper’s delivery gives Brighton another route into games, both from open play and corners. With the Seagulls ranked second in the Premier League for possession before the Coventry match, United will need to be far more disciplined without the ball than they were against City.
Brighton do have a demanding schedule, with Arsenal waiting in the league at the weekend, so some rotation would be no surprise. Even so, Hürzeler has options in Pascal Struijk, Chema Andrés, Matt O’Riley, Ibrahim Osman and Promise David. Their depth in central areas gives them a good chance of keeping the ball and staying competitive even if changes are made.
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Why Brighton X2 Makes Sense
Brighton X2 covers a Brighton win or a draw, and that protection is important at Old Trafford. Manchester United have won five of their last six competitive home matches, so backing Brighton to win outright is a more aggressive call. At 2.20, the double-chance line gives us a better margin for error.
The main reason to oppose United is their early-season inconsistency. They have taken only four points from four Premier League games and have conceded in every one of those matches. The City loss also raised questions about their ability to control a match when expected to dominate possession and territory.
Brighton are well equipped to exploit that. Groß and Ayari can move United’s midfield around, while Yalcouyé and De Cuyper have the pace and technical quality to get Brighton into advanced areas. Kostoulas gives them a mobile striker who can press from the front and attack the box. Brighton have also scored four or more goals in three of their six competitive matches this season.
The risk is obvious: United have scored 17 goals across their last six home matches and Fernandes can change a game quickly. But Brighton have won seven of the last 11 meetings in all competitions, including four at Old Trafford. From a betting point of view, the draw cover makes Brighton X2 at 2.20 the sensible way to play it.
- ✓Manchester United have conceded in all four Premier League matches this season.
- ✓Brighton have scored 13 Premier League goals in their first four games.
- ✓Brighton won 5-0 away at Coventry City in their latest match.
- ✓Pascal Groß registered one goal and two assists against Coventry.
- ✓Manchester United have scored 17 goals in their last six competitive home matches.
- ✓Brighton have won seven of the last 11 meetings in all competitions.
- ✓Brighton won 2-1 at Old Trafford in the FA Cup in January 2026.
Team News
United remain without Matthijs de Ligt, Manuel Ugarte, Amad Diallo, Tom Heaton and former Brighton midfielder Carlos Baleba. Luke Shaw is a fitness doubt after missing the derby. Carrick could rotate after Sunday’s game, with Noussair Mazraoui, Andrey Santos, Patrick Dorgu and Šeško all pushing for starts.
Brighton are reported to be without wide players Kaoru Mitoma and Yankuba Minteh, while Mats Wieffer, Jack Hinshelwood, Zadok Yohanna, Stefanos Tzimas and Evan Ferguson are also absent. Georginio Rutter, Femi Azeez and Michael Svoboda remain late fitness calls. The injuries on the wings place more responsibility on De Cuyper, Diego Gómez and Osman.
Possible Starting Lineups
Manchester United Possible XI
Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Martínez, Mazraoui; Mainoo, Andrey Santos; Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes, Dorgu; Šeško.
Brighton Possible XI
Verbruggen; Kadioglu, Dunk, Vuskovic, Boscagli; Groß, Ayari; Gómez, Yalcouyé, De Cuyper; Kostoulas.
Players to Watch
Bruno Fernandes — Manchester United
Fernandes remains United’s main source of invention and has four competitive goals already this season. Brighton will try to limit the space he receives between midfield and defence, but he is the player most likely to unlock a tight game for Carrick’s side.
Benjamin Šeško — Manchester United
Šeško could get the nod after appearing from the bench against City. His physical presence would give United a different route against Dunk and Vuskovic, especially when Mbeumo and Rashford look to deliver early balls into the area.
Pascal Groß — Brighton
Groß comes into this match after a goal and two assists at Coventry. He has also scored seven career goals against United, and his set-piece quality could be especially important against a home defence that has yet to keep a league clean sheet.
Charalampos Kostoulas — Brighton
Kostoulas scored and won a penalty in Brighton’s latest match. His movement across the front line can pull United’s centre-backs into awkward areas and create space for Yalcouyé and Gómez to attack.
Head-to-Head
The most recent meeting finished Brighton 0-3 Manchester United in May, with Patrick Dorgu, Bryan Mbeumo and Bruno Fernandes scoring. However, Brighton won 2-1 at Old Trafford in the FA Cup in January 2026, while United won the latest league meeting at Old Trafford 4-2 in October 2025.
Brighton have won seven of the last 11 meetings in all competitions, including four victories at Old Trafford. That record does not decide this tie, but it underlines why the Seagulls should not be underestimated at this ground.
Final Verdict
Manchester United have enough firepower to score, particularly if Fernandes, Mbeumo and Šeško start together. Their home scoring record is strong, but their defensive work and organisation have not been convincing in the Premier League.
Brighton come into the match with confidence, goals throughout the side and a midfield capable of handling long periods on the ball. Their missing wide players are a concern, while rotation after the Coventry win is the main threat to the selection. Still, Brighton X2 gives us the draw as well as an away win, and that looks good value at 2.20.
I expect Brighton to have enough quality to edge an open cup tie, with the correct-score prediction Manchester United 1-2 Brighton.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
Brighton should create chances against a United team that has struggled to keep opponents out in the league. United can score at home, but the Seagulls’ current attacking form and recent record in this fixture make the double chance the stronger call.
Best Bet: Brighton X2
Odds: 2.20
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Correct Score: Manchester United 1-2 Brighton
