Serbia begin their 2026/27 UEFA Nations League campaign at home to Greece on Thursday night, with both sides stepping into a demanding League A Group A2 alongside Germany and the Netherlands.
Veljko Paunović has plenty of experience available to him, including the recalled Dušan Tadić, Dušan Vlahović and Sergej Milinković-Savić, but Serbia arrive after difficult June friendlies. They lost 5-1 to Mexico and 3-0 to Cabo Verde, exposing a defensive fragility that cannot be ignored.
Greece have not been free-scoring either, drawing with Sweden and Hungary before losing narrowly to Paraguay and Italy in June. Ivan Jovanović does have good attacking options, though, with Christos Tzolis, Konstantinos Karetsas and Vangelis Pavlidis capable of making the difference in a tight game.
Serbia have home advantage in Belgrade, but Greece look well equipped to stay in the contest and punish any defensive mistakes. Our prediction is Serbia 1-2 Greece, with Greece DNB at odds of 2.00 our best bet.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Greece DNB
Market: Draw No Bet
Correct Score Prediction: Serbia 1-2 Greece
Odds: 2.00
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Expected Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: Yes
📅 Date: 24 September 2026
🏟️ Venue: Stadion Rajko Mitić, Belgrade
🏆 Competition: UEFA Nations League
Match Preview
This is an important opening night for Serbia. Paunović’s team are at home, but they enter League A after missing out on the 2026 World Cup and suffering a poor summer window. Serbia lost their two June friendlies by an aggregate score of 8-1, with the Mexico defeat especially damaging after they had taken an early lead through Petar Stanić.
Those friendlies featured a young, heavily rotated Serbia side, so they should not be treated as a perfect guide to this match. The September squad is much stronger. Tadić is back after two years away from the national team, while Vlahović leads the line in the absence of the injured Aleksandar Mitrović. Filip Kostić and Andrija Živković can stretch Greece from wide areas, with Tadić or Lazar Samardžić able to work between the lines.
The bigger issue for Serbia is at the other end. Nikola Milenković is injured and Serbia have kept only one clean sheet in their last 10 internationals. Strahinja Pavlović and Strahinja Eraković have the quality to form a solid partnership, but this group has conceded 22 goals across that 10-game run. Greece do not need many invitations when Tzolis and Pavlidis are on the pitch.
Greece are starting their first Nations League campaign in League A, and Jovanović is likely to approach this intelligently. His side used a back three and wing-backs against Italy in June, then looked to release Tzolis quickly on the counter. That shape would make sense again in Belgrade, particularly against a Serbia side expected to have more of the ball.
The Greeks have a useful mix of energy and quality. Kourbelis can add bite in midfield, Christos Zafeiris is capable of carrying the ball forward, and Karetsas gives them a creative option in the final third. Pavlidis, Fotis Ioannidis and Tasos Douvikas offer Jovanović several centre-forward choices, while Giorgos Masouras brings direct running from the right.
Greece’s June results were not spectacular, but there were positive signs. They drew 2-2 in Sweden, with Konstantinos Tsimikas scoring early and Masouras finding a late equaliser, while Zafeiris hit the post in the narrow loss to Italy. Serbia have the stronger home support, but Greece look capable of matching them physically and carrying a threat when the game opens up.
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Why Greece DNB Makes Sense
Greece DNB is the right way to support the away side at 2.00. Greece win the bet if they win the match, while a draw returns the stake. That protection matters because Serbia have enough experienced attacking talent to make a home draw a realistic outcome.
The straight Greece win would be a more aggressive call, but the Draw No Bet line gives us a sensible safety net in what should be a close Nations League opener. Serbia’s recent defensive record is the key reason to oppose them. They have conceded 13 goals in their last five matches, including eight across the defeats to Cabo Verde and Mexico.
Paunović should have a more settled side than he did in June, yet losing Milenković removes a major organiser from the back line. Greece have the pace of Tzolis, the movement of Pavlidis and the creativity of Karetsas to test that defence, especially if Serbia push their full-backs high and leave space in transition.
Greece also have a clear route to keeping this game tight if needed. Jovanović has shown he is comfortable changing between a back four and a back five, which could help his side deal with Vlahović, Tadić and Serbia’s delivery from wide positions. The main risk is Serbia finding an early goal and using the atmosphere in Belgrade to control the match, but at this price Greece DNB looks good value.
- ✓Serbia have conceded 22 goals in their last 10 senior internationals.
- ✓Serbia have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 matches.
- ✓Serbia lost 5-1 to Mexico and 3-0 to Cabo Verde in June.
- ✓Greece scored 13 goals across their last 10 senior internationals.
- ✓Both Teams To Score landed in 6 of Greece's last 10 matches.
- ✓Greece drew 2-2 away to Sweden in their most recent away match.
- ✓Greece won 1-0 on their only modern-record away visit to Serbia.
Team News
Serbia are without Aleksandar Mitrović and Nikola Milenković through injury. Mitrović’s absence places more responsibility on Vlahović to lead the attack, while Milenković’s absence leaves Pavlović, Eraković and Srđan Babić competing to cover an important defensive role. Predrag Rajković is also not in the squad, so Vanja Milinković-Savić and Đorđe Petrović are the senior goalkeeper options.
There is better news for Serbia with Tadić back in the international set-up. His ability to find Vlahović early, combine with Živković on the right and take responsibility at set pieces could be important. Gudelj, Saša Lukić, Maksimović and Sergej Milinković-Savić give Paunović experience in central areas.
Greece travel without Anastasios Bakasetas, Giannis Konstantelias, Lazaros Rota and Dimitris Giannoulis. Bakasetas has not been selected because he is not yet ready, while Konstantelias is another notable attacking absence. Jovanović can still call on Tsimikas, Vagiannidis, Retsos and Koulierakis across the defensive line, with Saliakas and Kyriakopoulos returning to strengthen the full-back options.
Vlachodimos is expected to continue in goal after starting against Italy. Pavlidis is a strong candidate to start up front, although Douvikas and Ioannidis give Greece genuine alternatives if Jovanović wants a different profile.
Possible Starting Lineups
Serbia Possible XI
Vanja Milinković-Savić; Kosta Nedeljković; Strahinja Eraković; Strahinja Pavlović; Aleksa Terzić; Nemanja Gudelj; Sergej Milinković-Savić; Andrija Živković; Dušan Tadić; Filip Kostić; Dušan Vlahović
Greece Possible XI
Odysseas Vlachodimos; Giorgos Vagiannidis; Panagiotis Retsos; Konstantinos Koulierakis; Konstantinos Tsimikas; Dimitris Kourbelis; Christos Zafeiris; Giorgos Masouras; Konstantinos Karetsas; Christos Tzolis; Vangelis Pavlidis
Players to Watch
Dušan Vlahović — Serbia
With Mitrović unavailable, Vlahović is Serbia’s main finishing reference. Greece may defend with extra numbers around their box, so his movement between the centre-backs and his ability to turn crosses into chances will be central to Serbia’s hopes.
Dušan Tadić — Serbia
Tadić’s return gives Serbia a calm creative presence. He can link midfield to attack, find runners from deep and bring more control to a team that has looked disjointed in recent matches.
Christos Tzolis — Greece
Tzolis was Greece’s main counter-attacking outlet against Italy and should be a threat again if Serbia leave room behind their right-back. His pace and willingness to drive inside make him one of Greece’s most dangerous players.
Vangelis Pavlidis — Greece
Pavlidis offers Greece movement, pressing and a sharp penalty-box presence. He could benefit if Tzolis and Karetsas can get Greece running at Serbia’s reshaped central defence.
Head-to-Head
Modern Serbia and Greece have met twice. Greece won 1-0 in Belgrade in a 2010 friendly, while Serbia won the most recent meeting 2-0 in Greece in November 2014. Those games are now some time ago, so the current squads and team news matter far more than the old results.
Final Verdict
Serbia have enough talent to score at home, particularly with Tadić back to support Vlahović, but their defensive problems have been too regular to ignore. Milenković’s injury further weakens an area that has already caused Paunović concern.
Greece may not dominate possession, yet they have the structure to frustrate Serbia and enough speed in Tzolis, Masouras and Pavlidis to hurt them on the break. The draw remains a genuine possibility, which is why the DNB line is preferable to backing Greece outright.
At 2.00, Greece DNB remains the best bet. The expected match pattern is a competitive game in which Greece stay compact before creating the better moments in transition. Our correct-score prediction is Serbia 1-2 Greece.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
Greece have the players and tactical discipline to make this difficult for Serbia, while the home side’s recent defensive record is a concern. Draw No Bet gives us protection if Serbia’s home advantage helps them earn a point.
The away side are worth supporting at the quoted price, with Tzolis and Pavlidis capable of providing the attacking edge in Belgrade.
Best Bet: Greece DNB
Odds: 2.00
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Correct Score: Serbia 1-2 Greece
