Türkiye vs Italy Prediction & Betting Tips

FreeOddsTips Verdict

Updated 26 Sep 2026

PredictionTürkiye to Win

Best Odds3.45

Value BetOver 2.5 Goals

Confidence★★★★☆

Best available price · 18+ · Play responsiblyBet Türkiye to Win @ 3.45

Written by GüvenSports Betting & Product Specialist

Updated 26 September 2026 · 2 min read

Türkiye host Italy in League A Group A1 on Monday after both teams opened the Nations League with defeats. Türkiye lost 1-0 to France in Kocaeli, while Italy were beaten 2-0 by Belgium in Rome.

Match Preview

Türkiye can take more from their opening result than the scoreline suggests. France had more of the ball and created the better chances, but Montella’s side stayed in the game and had opportunities of their own. Barış Alper Yılmaz saw an effort blocked after a quick attack, while Arda Güler created a chance for Can Uzun and later delivered the corner that almost produced a Türkiye equaliser through İsmail Yüksek.

France eventually broke through in the 54th minute when Michael Olise found Kylian Mbappé, but Türkiye continued to compete before Uğurcan Çakır was sent off late on for handling outside his area.

Italy had a much more difficult opening against Belgium. The Azzurri were under pressure during the first half and went behind to Mika Godts, before Dodi Lukebakio added a second after the break. Italy improved after half-time and came close through their forwards, but the 2-0 defeat left Mancini with plenty to correct before travelling to Bursa.

Türkiye will again look towards Arda Güler and Barış Alper for attacking inspiration, but they will be without Kenan Yıldız and Hakan Çalhanoğlu, who were already absent from Montella’s Nations League squad because of injuries. Italy have more depth available and should be able to field a stronger midfield than they showed against Belgium, with Nicolò Barella and Sandro Tonali key to that improvement.

With both sides looking for their first points, Türkiye’s home advantage should make this competitive, while Italy have the individual quality to cause problems when they get forward.

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Our Best BetEditor’s Choice

Türkiye to Win

Türkiye competed well against France
Türkiye can create chances at home
Italy were dominated by Belgium

Best Odds3.45Decimal

18+ · Gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.orgBet Türkiye to Win @ 3.45

Why Türkiye to Win Makes Sense

Türkiye to win makes sense at 3.45 because the opening results do not tell the same story about these two teams. Türkiye lost narrowly to France but remained competitive for long periods and created several good attacking moments, while Italy were under significant pressure against Belgium and were fortunate to go into half-time only one goal behind.

The home advantage in Bursa is another important factor. Türkiye have several players capable of attacking Italy's defensive spaces, particularly Arda Güler and Barış Alper Yılmaz, and their direct approach should give Italy problems if Mancini's side again struggles to deal with pressure and transitions.

Italy still have the individual quality to make this difficult, especially through Donnarumma, Barella and Tonali, but their opening performance raised questions about their defensive structure and midfield control. At 3.45, the home win is the selection for this match.

Form & Recent Matches

Newest match first.

Türkiye

LWLLW

25 Sep 2026HFrance
UEFA Nations League0-1L
25 Jun 2026AUSA
FIFA World Cup3-2W
19 Jun 2026HParaguay
FIFA World Cup0-1L
13 Jun 2026AAustralia
FIFA World Cup0-2L
06 Jun 2026HVenezuela
Friendly Match2-1W

Italy

LWWDW

25 Sep 2026HBelgium
UEFA Nations League0-2L
07 Jun 2026AGreece
Friendly Match1-0W
03 Jun 2026ALuxembourg
Friendly Match1-0W
31 Mar 2026ABosnia and Herzegovina
FIFA World Cup Qualifiers1-1D
26 Mar 2026HNorthern Ireland
FIFA World Cup Qualifiers2-0W

Match Statistics

Last 10 Matches

Türkiye6 W · 1 D · 3 L

1.50Avg goals scored

0.90Avg goals conceded

4/10Clean sheets

6Wins

1Draws

3Losses

Italy7 W · 1 D · 2 L

1.90Avg goals scored

1.20Avg goals conceded

5/10Clean sheets

7Wins

1Draws

2Losses

GoalsBTTSHalf TimeClean SheetsForm

Statistic	Türkiye	Italy
Avg goals scored	1.50	1.90
Avg goals conceded	0.90	1.20
Scored 0 goals	3/10	1/10
Scored 1 goal	2/10	4/10
Scored 2 goals	3/10	2/10
Scored 3+ goals	2/10	3/10
Conceded 0 goals	4/10	5/10
Conceded 1 goal	3/10	2/10
Conceded 2 goals	3/10	1/10
Conceded 3+ goals	0/10	2/10

Statistic	Türkiye	Italy
BTTS — Yes	3/10	4/10
BTTS — No	7/10	6/10

Half-time data unavailable.

Statistic	Türkiye	Italy
Clean sheets	4/10	5/10
Failed to keep a clean sheet	6/10	5/10

Türkiye

LWLLWWWWDW

6 Wins · 1 Draws · 3 Losses

Italy

LWWDWLWWWW

7 Wins · 1 Draws · 2 Losses

Newest match first.

Form Analysis

Recent Form

How both teams have been performing.

Türkiye

Home team

Form Outlook

Türkiye's latest results show a team capable of producing strong attacking performances but still vulnerable against high-level opposition. They beat Venezuela, North Macedonia, Romania and Kosovo before the World Cup, then finished their tournament with a 3-2 win over the USA. The 0-1 defeat to France was narrow and came against one of the strongest squads in the group.

The main concern is the loss of Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız, while Uğurcan Çakır is also unavailable after his red card against France. Even without those players, Türkiye showed enough attacking quality against France to suggest they can cause Italy serious problems.

Italy

Away team

Form Outlook

Italy arrived in the Nations League after a mixed period. They won their final two friendlies against Luxembourg and Greece and beat Northern Ireland in the World Cup play-offs, but the penalty-shootout defeat to Bosnia & Herzegovina and the heavy 4-1 loss to Norway remain important results from their recent competitive record.

The 0-2 defeat to Belgium was the bigger warning sign. Italy struggled to cope with Belgium's pressure in the first half and needed Donnarumma to make several important saves. They improved after the interval, but the second goal ended their hopes of recovering a point.

Team News

Squad Update

Latest squad information before kick-off.

Türkiye

Home team

Squad Status

Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız were left out of Türkiye's 29-man Nations League squad because of injuries. Uğurcan Çakır was then sent off against France in the 87th minute for handling outside his penalty area, so Altay Bayındır is expected to be the main goalkeeping option against Italy. Orkun Kökçü was also unavailable for the France match while recovering from injury.

Italy

Away team

Squad Status

Italy entered the Nations League with a heavily refreshed squad, including nine players receiving their first senior call-ups under Roberto Mancini. Federico Dimarco was unavailable and Matteo Ruggeri was brought into the squad, while Bryan Cristante was unavailable and Samuele Ricci was added. Italy also have Alessandro Bastoni, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Nicolò Barella and Sandro Tonali available among the experienced players.

Tactical Analysis

Tactical Outlook

TürkiyeHome

Tactical matchup

ItalyAway

Tactical Outlook

Türkiye should look to attack Italy with pace and movement between the lines. Arda Güler is particularly important because he can receive behind Italy's midfield and create chances for Barış Alper Yılmaz and the wide players. Türkiye should also press aggressively when Italy attempt to build from the back.

Italy are likely to retain their 4-3-3 structure, with Barella and Tonali providing the main experience in midfield. Against Belgium, however, Italy struggled when the opponent pressed high and attacked the spaces around the full-backs. Türkiye should target those areas and try to force Italy into rushed passes and turnovers.

The key tactical battle could therefore be Türkiye's attacking movement against Italy's ability to protect the spaces in front of the defence. If Türkiye can reproduce the intensity shown against France, they should have opportunities to win the match.

H2H

Head-to-Head

Previous meetings between the two teams.

04 Jun 2024Friendly MatchVenue: ItalyTürkiye0–0Italy
29 Mar 2022Friendly MatchVenue: TürkiyeTürkiye2–3Italy
11 Jun 2021UEFA European ChampionshipVenue: NeutralTürkiye0–3Italy
11 Jun 2000UEFA European ChampionshipVenue: NeutralTürkiye1–2Italy

Expected Starting XI

Team Lineups

Projected starting lineups for both teams.

TürkiyeFormation 3-4-2-1

ItalyFormation 4-3-3

Türkiye

GKAltay Bayındır
RCBZeki Çelik
CBMerih Demiral
LCBAbdülkerim Bardakcı
RWBOğuz Aydın
CMSalih Özcan
CMİsmail Yüksek
LWBFerdi Kadıoğlu
AMArda Güler
AMCan Uzun
STBarış Alper Yılmaz

Italy

GKGianluigi Donnarumma
RBGiovanni Di Lorenzo
CBGianluca Mancini
CBAlessandro Bastoni
LBRiccardo Calafiori
CMNicolò Barella
CMAlessandro Romano
CMSandro Tonali
RWNicolò Cambiaghi
STFrancesco Pio Esposito
LWMoise Kean

Players to Watch

Key Players

Players who could have an important influence on the match.

Türkiye

Home team

Arda GülerAM
The main creative threat between the lines.
Barış Alper YılmazLW
Pace and direct running can stretch Italy's defence.
Ferdi KadıoğluLB
Provides energy and width from the left.
Oğuz AydınRW
Direct attacking option who can create chances.
Can UzunST
Young forward capable of linking play and attacking the box.

Italy

Away team

Nicolò BarellaCM
Italy's main midfield creator and ball carrier.
Sandro TonaliCM
Important for Italy's pressing and transition play.
Gianluigi DonnarummaGK
Italy's key defensive presence.
Moise KeanRW
Direct runner who can threaten in transition.
Riccardo CalafioriLB
Important for Italy's build-up and defensive balance.

What the Numbers Tell Us

Data Insight

What the recent numbers suggest about the matchup.

Our Reading of the Data

The recent results point to a more open matchup than the historical head-to-head record suggests. Türkiye have scored three or more goals in several recent victories and beat the USA 3-2 before the Nations League began, while Italy have conceded four goals to Norway and two to Belgium in their last two competitive defeats.

Türkiye's recent home results are also encouraging, although the absence of Çalhanoğlu and Yıldız reduces their attacking depth. Italy have experienced players and a world-class goalkeeper, but their opening performance against Belgium showed that they can be exposed when the opposition presses and attacks quickly.

The numbers therefore support a competitive home performance, with Türkiye's attacking options and home advantage giving them a realistic route to three points.

Final Verdict

Editorial

Our ConclusionTürkiyevsItaly

Türkiye have the opportunity to respond immediately after their narrow defeat to France, and the performance in that match provides enough evidence to back them against Italy.

Italy's 2-0 defeat to Belgium was far more concerning, particularly the problems they had during the first half. Mancini's side have quality, but they are still adapting to a significantly changed squad and system.

Türkiye will be without Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız and must also replace suspended goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakır, but the home advantage and the attacking threat of Arda Güler, Barış Alper Yılmaz and their supporting players make the home win attractive at the available price.

Our prediction is Türkiye 2-1 Italy, with Türkiye to Win at odds of 3.45 our best bet.

FAQs

Quick Answers

Who will win Türkiye vs Italy?

We are backing Türkiye to beat Italy in Bursa. Türkiye competed well against France in their opening match, while Italy were beaten 2-0 by Belgium after struggling for long periods.

What is the best bet for Türkiye vs Italy?

Our best bet is Türkiye to Win at odds of 3.45.

What was the result of Türkiye's opening Nations League match?

Türkiye lost 1-0 to France in Kocaeli, with Kylian Mbappé scoring the only goal.

What was Italy's opening Nations League result?

Italy lost 2-0 to Belgium in Rome, with Mika Godts and Dodi Lukebakio scoring.

What is the predicted score for Türkiye vs Italy?

Our predicted score is Türkiye 2-1 Italy.