Ajax return to the Johan Cruijff ArenA on Tuesday night looking to build on a ruthless 5-1 win at Fortuna Sittard. Míchel Sánchez’s side have made a fast attacking start to the campaign, scoring 14 goals in five Eredivisie matches, and their postponed fixture with Willem II gives them a good chance to add another three points.
There is still a little edge to Ajax. PSV won 3-1 in Amsterdam earlier this month, while clean sheets have been hard to find even when the attack has been firing. But the response at Fortuna was impressive: Ajax were level shortly after half-time before scoring four more times.
Willem II arrive in 17th place after taking two points from their opening five games. John Stegeman’s team deserved credit for their 1-1 draw at AZ on Friday, particularly after Devin Haen’s late equaliser, but they have conceded 14 goals already and now face the league’s most in-form attack away from home.
Ajax have the quality, depth and momentum to turn this into a long evening for the promoted side. Our prediction is 4-0, with Ajax Asian Handicap -2.5 at odds of 2.15 our best bet.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Ajax Asian Handicap -2.5
Market: Asian Handicap
Correct Score Prediction: Ajax 4-0 Willem II
Odds: 2.15
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Expected Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: No
📅 Date: 15 September 2026
🏟️ Venue: Johan Cruijff ArenA
🏆 Competition: Eredivisie
Match Preview
Ajax are fifth after five league matches, with 10 points and a +8 goal difference. Their football under Sánchez has been front-footed and aggressive. The usual 4-3-3 gives Ajax width around a central striker, with Sofyan Amrabat sitting at the base of midfield and Julian Brandt given licence to work closer to the forwards.
The recent goal figures underline how dangerous Ajax have been. They beat Telstar 4-0, scored four away at Sion and then five against both Sion and Fortuna. Brandt opened the scoring at Fortuna, while Thilo Kehrer, Davy Klaassen, Kasper Dolberg and Youri Baas all found the net after the break. That spread of scorers matters against an opponent likely to sit deep and crowd the box.
Tolu Arokodare has led the line in the latest league games, offering a physical target for Steven Berghuis and Oliver Edvardsen to play around. Brandt has brought composure between the lines, while Klaassen, Oscar Gloukh, Dolberg and Viktor Tsygankov give Sánchez serious options if he wants to change the game from the bench. Ajax should dominate the ball, use Caio Henrique’s forward running from left-back and keep Willem II pinned back for long spells.
Willem II will not lack effort. Their draw at AZ showed that Stegeman’s side can stay in a game against stronger opposition, although AZ created 3.1 xG to Willem II’s 1.2. Maxime Delanghe was kept busy, and Haen’s 81st-minute finish, created by Uriël van Aalst, rescued an important point.
The visitors have generally used a 4-2-3-1, with Calvin Twigt and Tonny Vilhena screening the defence and Van Aalst operating behind Haen. Jaden Slory can offer pace from wide areas, and Haen has scored three of Willem II’s five league goals. Their best chance is to absorb pressure, make Ajax work for openings and break into the spaces left by the home full-backs.
That plan is difficult to execute for 90 minutes at this ground. Willem II have no clean sheet in five league matches, lost 4-1 at Go Ahead Eagles in their only other league away game and have little room for error against an Ajax team that can bring fresh attacking quality into the match.
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Why Ajax Asian Handicap -2.5 Makes Sense
Ajax are rightly strong favourites, but the straight win is not the market that interests me. At 2.15, Ajax Asian Handicap -2.5 asks them to win by at least three goals, and the price reflects a margin that their recent attacking performances make realistic.
Ajax have scored 19 goals across their latest five competitive matches. The key is not simply that they can score; it is that Sánchez has several ways to keep the pressure on. Arokodare can occupy centre-backs, Berghuis can create from the right, Brandt can arrive from midfield, and Klaassen or Dolberg can make an impact later on. Willem II could defend well early on and still struggle once Ajax begin to use their squad depth.
The visitors’ defensive record points in the same direction. They have shipped 14 goals in five Eredivisie outings and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Their point at AZ was hard-earned, but AZ still created a large number of chances. Ajax have scored four or more goals in three of their last five competitive games, so this is not a handicap line that looks out of reach.
The obvious risk is Ajax’s own defensive record. They have conceded in eight of their last 10 competitive games, and Haen has the pace and finishing to punish a loose moment on the counter. A Willem II goal would make the handicap harder work. Even so, Ajax should create enough pressure and enough chances to cover the three-goal line. At this price, the value is with a convincing home win rather than a short outright price.
- ✓Ajax have scored 14 goals in their first five Eredivisie matches.
- ✓Ajax won four of their latest five competitive fixtures, scoring 19 goals.
- ✓Ajax scored 32 goals across their last 10 competitive matches.
- ✓Nine of Ajax's last 10 competitive matches finished Over 2.5 Goals.
- ✓Willem II are 17th with two points from five Eredivisie games.
- ✓Willem II have conceded 14 goals and kept no clean sheets in the league this season.
- ✓Devin Haen has scored three of Willem II's five league goals.
- ✓Willem II drew 1-1 at AZ in their latest match.
Team News
Ajax remain without Aaron Bouwman, who is sidelined for the rest of September after the injury he suffered against PSV. Kehrer stepped in beside Baas at Fortuna and made an immediate impact with a goal and an assist, so Sánchez has a settled solution at centre-back. Amrabat made his first start in the win at Fortuna, while Klaassen, Dolberg, Gloukh, Tsygankov and Abdellah Ouazane are all pushing for minutes after appearing from the bench.
Willem II are missing injured goalkeeper Thomas Didillon-Hödl, leaving Delanghe in goal after his recent loan arrival. Justin Hoogma, Jari Schuurman, Thijs Muller, Vito van Crooij, Armin Ćulum, Amine Lachkar, Anass Zarrouk and Lasse Abildgaard were also listed unavailable for the AZ match. Ter Avest has returned to captain the side, while Vilhena and Twigt are expected to continue in midfield.
Possible Starting Lineups
Ajax Possible XI
Ter Stegen; Gaaei, Kehrer, Baas, Caio Henrique; Amrabat, Mokio, Brandt; Berghuis, Tolu Arokodare, Edvardsen
Willem II Possible XI
Delanghe; Ter Avest, Stam, Dekker, Tjoe-A-On; Twigt, Vilhena; Van Loon, Van Aalst, Slory; Haen
Players to Watch
Julian Brandt — Ajax
Brandt scored the opener at Fortuna and is becoming a major link between Ajax’s midfield and attack. His movement into the final third can pull Willem II’s double pivot out of shape.
Tolu Arokodare — Ajax
Arokodare has scored in three of Ajax’s last four competitive matches before the Fortuna game. His strength against the centre-backs could create room for Ajax’s wide players and midfield runners.
Devin Haen — Willem II
Haen has three league goals already and supplied the late finish that earned Willem II a point at AZ. If the visitors are to threaten, he is the player most likely to make their counter-attacks count.
Uriël van Aalst — Willem II
Van Aalst scored against Heerenveen and assisted Haen at AZ. He will need to be sharp when Willem II win the ball, because his link play behind the striker is their most direct route towards goal.
Head-to-Head
Current form is more useful than older meetings here. Ajax have started the season with 14 league goals, while Willem II are adapting to life back in the Eredivisie after promotion and have conceded 14 times in five matches.
Final Verdict
Ajax should control possession and spend most of the match in Willem II territory. Their recent attacking output, combined with the number of scorers available to Sánchez, gives them a strong chance of pulling clear once the game opens up.
Willem II showed resilience at AZ and Haen is capable of causing a problem if Ajax switch off, which is the main danger for this bet. But Ajax are in excellent shape, Willem II have already conceded heavily this season, and Ajax Asian Handicap -2.5 at 2.15 remains the best way to back the home side. The correct-score prediction is Ajax 4-0 Willem II.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
Ajax have too much attacking quality for a Willem II side still searching for its first league win of the season. The visitors may keep things compact early on, but Ajax’s pressure and depth should tell over the full 90 minutes.
Best Bet: Ajax Asian Handicap -2.5
Odds: 2.15
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Correct Score: Ajax 4-0 Willem II
