Leeds United welcome Newcastle United to Elland Road on Monday night with both sides still unbeaten after three Premier League matches. Daniel Farke’s side have taken five points from their opening fixtures, while Newcastle have matched that total under new head coach Matthias Jaissle.
The midweek cup defeat at Chelsea was an extraordinary game for Leeds. A heavily rotated side led 2-0 before losing 6-3, but the league XI should look very different here and Farke was keen to separate that result from the Premier League campaign. Still, it showed that Leeds can be dangerous going forward and can be opened up when the game becomes stretched.
Newcastle have already scored six league goals, drawing 2-2 with Liverpool and Bournemouth before winning 2-0 at Tottenham. Jaissle has brought a more vertical, high-energy style, and the pace in his front line looks well suited to an Elland Road contest that should be played at a proper tempo.
Leeds have enough attacking quality to score at home, while Newcastle have the runners and wide creativity to hurt a defence missing Joe Rodon. Our prediction is Leeds 2-2 Newcastle, with Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes at odds of 2.30 our best bet.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Market: Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score
Correct Score Prediction: Leeds 2-2 Newcastle
Odds: 2.30
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Expected Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: Yes
📅 Date: Monday, 14 September 2026
🏟️ Venue: Elland Road
🏆 Competition: Premier League
Match Preview
Farke has settled on a back-three system in every competitive match this season. It gives Leeds plenty of width through Jayden Bogle and Gabriel Gudmundsson, while Ethan Ampadu anchors the middle and Anton Stach is encouraged to make things happen further forward. Leeds created good chances in the 1-1 draw at Brighton, where Bogle scored after Ao Tanaka’s assist, and Stach and Dominic Calvert-Lewin were also involved in several promising moments.
Calvert-Lewin remains the focal point, but Leeds are not relying on him alone. Noah Okafor is getting sharper and has made a useful impact in the last two games, creating a chance at Brighton before assisting Calvert-Lewin at Chelsea. Brenden Aaronson and Harry Wilson give Farke further options around the striker, while Daniel James and Jean-Mattéo Bahoya can add pace if the match opens up late on.
The concern is at the other end. Leeds have only conceded twice in three league games, so the Chelsea scoreline should not be treated as a straight measure of their first-choice defence. Yet Rodon’s hamstring injury means Farke is short of a major organiser in the back three, and Newcastle have enough speed to test James Justin, Nico Elvedi and Tarik Muharemović when Leeds commit wing-backs forward.
Newcastle’s start has been encouraging despite major summer changes, including Bruno Guimarães leaving and Nico González arriving to reshape the midfield. González has looked comfortable moving the ball quickly, Lewis Miley has been trusted alongside him, and Joe Willock’s late runs from the number-10 position add another goal threat. Willock also scored the winner in the midweek cup victory at Millwall.
Jaissle wants his team to press high, attack directly and move the ball forward quickly after regaining it. Anthony Elanga has already scored against Liverpool and Tottenham, Harvey Barnes struck in the Bournemouth draw, and Yoane Wissa is Newcastle’s main central outlet. Amar Dedić has made an immediate impression from right-back with three assists in his first three Newcastle appearances, while Lewis Hall supplied the decisive cutback at Millwall.
Newcastle have won their two away games this season without conceding, but their league draws against Liverpool and Bournemouth showed that they can be pulled into open contests. Elland Road should test their control, particularly if Leeds can get Calvert-Lewin and Okafor into the game early.
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Why Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes Makes Sense
This bet needs at least three goals and a goal from each side. At 2.30, that is a better route than trying to call the match winner in a game where both teams have started the league unbeaten and the draw is a realistic outcome.
Newcastle have scored in all five competitive games under Jaissle this season and their Premier League matches have already produced a 2-2 draw with Liverpool, a 2-0 win at Tottenham and another 2-2 draw with Bournemouth. Elanga, Barnes and Wissa give them genuine pace in transition, while Dedić and Hall are creating from full-back.
Leeds have scored in each of their first three league games and should be far more settled than they were with the rotated cup team at Chelsea. Their wing-backs push on, Stach joins attacks from midfield, and Calvert-Lewin offers a physical target against Newcastle’s centre-backs. Okafor’s possible inclusion would give Leeds another direct runner close to the striker.
The main risk is Newcastle’s away defensive record: they have won at Tottenham and Millwall to nil. But this is a different test against a Leeds side with home support behind them and enough players to make a compact game more difficult. The market may be putting too much weight on those clean sheets and not enough on how quickly both teams can turn possession into attacks.
- ✓Leeds are unbeaten in their first three Premier League matches, with one win and two draws.
- ✓Newcastle are also unbeaten in the league, scoring six goals in three games.
- ✓Newcastle have scored in all five competitive matches under Matthias Jaissle this season.
- ✓Leeds scored three times in their EFL Cup defeat at Chelsea.
- ✓Newcastle's last 10 competitive matches have produced Over 2.5 Goals in 7/10.
- ✓Leeds are without centre-back Joe Rodon because of a hamstring injury.
- ✓Newcastle are unbeaten in their last six meetings with Leeds.
- ✓The latest meeting ended Newcastle 4-3 Leeds in January 2026.
Team News
Leeds remain without Joe Rodon, who is recovering from a hamstring injury. James Justin can continue in the back three alongside Muharemović and Elvedi. James Trafford is expected to return in goal after Michael Zetterer played in the cup, while Okafor is available and could start as Farke manages his fitness.
Newcastle have Tino Livramento available again after his second-half appearance at Millwall. Matias Fernández-Pardo has completed a full training week and is closing in on a first start, although Jaissle will make a late call on his workload. Dan Burn, Joelinton and William Osula were not confirmed as available in the latest build-up, while there are no reported Newcastle suspensions.
Possible Starting Lineups
Leeds Possible XI
James Trafford; Tarik Muharemović; Nico Elvedi; James Justin; Jayden Bogle; Ao Tanaka; Ethan Ampadu; Gabriel Gudmundsson; Anton Stach; Noah Okafor; Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Newcastle Possible XI
Lukáš Horníček; Amar Dedić; Malick Thiaw; Sven Botman; Lewis Hall; Nico González; Lewis Miley; Anthony Elanga; Joe Willock; Harvey Barnes; Yoane Wissa
Players to Watch
Dominic Calvert-Lewin — Leeds
Calvert-Lewin has a league goal and also scored after coming off the bench at Chelsea. He will be Leeds’ main target for deliveries from Bogle and Gudmundsson, and his ability to occupy Botman and Thiaw could create room for Stach and Okafor.
Noah Okafor — Leeds
Okafor has been involved in attacking moments in consecutive games, creating for Calvert-Lewin at Brighton and assisting him at Chelsea. If he starts, his movement between the lines can help Leeds turn quick breaks into shots.
Anthony Elanga — Newcastle
Elanga has made an immediate mark with goals against Liverpool and Tottenham. Leeds’ wing-backs will want to push high, so there should be space for him to attack down the channels when Newcastle break.
Amar Dedić — Newcastle
Dedić’s three assists in three early appearances underline how important Newcastle’s full-backs are to Jaissle’s plan. His overlap against Leeds’ left side could be a major source of chances, particularly if Elanga moves inside.
Head-to-Head
Newcastle are unbeaten in their last six meetings with Leeds. The most recent game was a remarkable 4-3 Newcastle win in January 2026, while the last meeting at Elland Road finished 0-0 in August 2025. Those contrasting results are a reminder that previous meetings alone do not settle the likely game state here, but the seven-goal thriller does show how quickly this fixture can become open.
Final Verdict
Newcastle’s unbeaten start and two clean-sheet away wins mean they deserve respect, but the straight away win is not for me at Elland Road. Leeds have been competitive in the league, have goals around Calvert-Lewin, Okafor and Stach, and should be lifted by playing at home after the strange Chelsea cup game.
Jaissle’s Newcastle are built to attack quickly and have already shown they can score against strong opposition. Leeds missing Rodon is the biggest concern for the home side, while Newcastle’s draws with Liverpool and Bournemouth show that their own defence can be exposed. At 2.30, Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes looks like good value. My correct-score prediction is Leeds 2-2 Newcastle.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
I expect a lively match rather than a cautious Monday-night stalemate. Leeds should have enough threat to score at Elland Road, but Newcastle’s pace and full-back creativity can ensure they contribute heavily too, which keeps the goals-and-BTTS selection attractive at 2.30.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Odds: 2.30
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Correct Score: Leeds 2-2 Newcastle
