Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

FreeOddsTips Verdict

Updated 16 Oct 2026

PredictionOver 3.5 Goals

Best Odds2.20

Value BetBoth Teams To Score

Confidence★★★★☆

Best available price · 18+ · Play responsiblyBet Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.20

Written by GüvenSports Betting & Product Specialist

Updated 16 October 2026 · 2 min read

Bayer Leverkusen host Bundesliga leaders Freiburg on Sunday, 18 October, in an early-season meeting between two of the division’s most entertaining sides. Freiburg arrive unbeaten after taking 13 points from five league matches, while Leverkusen sit fourth with 10 points and have scored 14 times already.

Both teams come into the BayArena after Thursday European wins. Leverkusen swept aside Lech Poznan 4-0 in the Europa League, while Freiburg beat FK Jablonec 3-2 in the Conference League. The quick turnaround has not stopped either side producing goals this season.

Patrik Schick has scored in each of Leverkusen’s first five Bundesliga appearances and added two penalties in Poland. Freiburg have their own attacking threats through Igor Matanovic, Vincenzo Grifo, Derry Scherhant and Maximilian Eggestein, even though Yuito Suzuki is suspended.

FreeOddsTips backs Over 3.5 Goals at 2.20. The 3-1 correct-score prediction reflects Leverkusen’s excellent home record, but Freiburg’s current form and willingness to attack make a one-sided game far from certain.

Match Preview

Carles Martínez has generally used a 4-2-3-1 built around a double pivot and a mobile attacking line behind Schick. The hosts have won all three home matches this season, scoring eight goals without conceding, but their away league games at Mainz and Elversberg also showed that this side can become involved in open, high-event contests when opponents press them and attack space behind the full-backs.

Freiburg should not arrive merely to protect their unbeaten start. Julian Schuster’s 4-2-3-1 has delivered 14 league goals in five matches, with Grifo’s delivery and Eggestein’s late runs adding another route beyond their wide transitions. Suzuki’s absence removes four Bundesliga goals, but Freiburg rotated heavily in midweek and should restore several regular league starters.

The key is likely to be the space either side of midfield. Leverkusen have pace and dribbling through Moussa Diaby and Ibrahim Maza around Schick, while Freiburg can hurt a high line when Scherhant or Grifo receive early passes into the channels. Both clubs have enough attacking depth to keep the tempo high after substitutions, which is why four goals is the preferred angle.

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Our Best BetEditor’s Choice

Over 3.5 Goals

Leverkusen have scored 24 goals in eight games
Freiburg's last 10 games produced Over 2.5 in nine
Both teams have scored freely in the Bundesliga

Best Odds2.20Decimal

18+ · Gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.orgBet Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.20

Why Over 3.5 Goals Makes Sense

This is a meeting of two sides who have made an aggressive start to the season. Leverkusen have scored 24 goals in eight competitive matches, while Freiburg have found the net 33 times across their last 10 competitive games.

Leverkusen's home record is impressive, with three wins, eight goals scored and no goals conceded. Yet their 4-3 win at Mainz and 3-2 defeat at Elversberg show that the hosts can be drawn into open matches when the opposition carries a real attacking threat.

Freiburg fit that description. They have scored in every away fixture this season and have produced 14 Bundesliga goals in five games. Suzuki's suspension is a loss, but Grifo, Matanovic, Scherhant and Eggestein still give Schuster several ways to create chances.

Over 3.5 Goals at 2.20 asks for a high bar, but it offers a better return than the more obvious lower goal lines and suits a matchup between two confident, front-foot teams.

Form & Recent Matches

Newest match first.

Bayer Leverkusen

WWWWD

15 Oct 2026ALech Poznan
UEFA Europa League4-0W
10 Oct 2026AMainz 05
Bundesliga4-3W
20 Sep 2026HRB Leipzig
Bundesliga2-0W
16 Sep 2026HNK Celje
UEFA Europa League2-0W
12 Sep 2026AAugsburg
Bundesliga2-2D

Freiburg

WWDWW

15 Oct 2026HFK Jablonec
UEFA Conference League3-2W
11 Oct 2026HSchalke 04
Bundesliga2-1W
19 Sep 2026AEintracht Frankfurt
Bundesliga2-2D
12 Sep 2026HBorussia Monchengladbach
Bundesliga5-0W
05 Sep 2026ASC Paderborn
Bundesliga1-0W

Match Statistics

Last 10 Matches

Bayer Leverkusen6 W · 1 D · 1 L

3.00Avg goals scored

1.00Avg goals conceded

5/8Clean sheets

6Wins

1Draws

1Losses

Based on 8 completed matches (fewer than 10 available).

Freiburg9 W · 1 D · 0 L

3.30Avg goals scored

1.00Avg goals conceded

2/10Clean sheets

9Wins

1Draws

0Losses

GoalsBTTSHalf TimeClean SheetsForm

Statistic	Bayer Leverkusen	Freiburg
Avg goals scored	3.00	3.30
Avg goals conceded	1.00	1.00
Scored 0 goals	0/8	0/10
Scored 1 goal	0/8	1/10
Scored 2 goals	4/8	2/10
Scored 3+ goals	4/8	7/10
Conceded 0 goals	5/8	2/10
Conceded 1 goal	0/8	6/10
Conceded 2 goals	1/8	2/10
Conceded 3+ goals	2/8	0/10

Statistic	Bayer Leverkusen	Freiburg
BTTS — Yes	3/8	8/10
BTTS — No	5/8	2/10

Half-time data unavailable.

Statistic	Bayer Leverkusen	Freiburg
Clean sheets	5/8	2/10
Failed to keep a clean sheet	3/8	8/10

Bayer Leverkusen

WWWWDWLW

6 Wins · 1 Draws · 1 Losses

Freiburg

WWDWWWWWWW

9 Wins · 1 Draws · 0 Losses

Newest match first.

Form Analysis

Recent Form

How both teams have been performing.

Bayer Leverkusen

Home team

Form Outlook

Leverkusen have won six of eight competitive matches under Carles Martínez and are carrying a four-match winning run into this fixture. Their attack has scored three goals per game across the available 2026/27 sample, led by Schick's outstanding start.

The BayArena has been a particularly controlled setting: three wins from three, eight goals scored and no goals conceded. The caveat is that two league matches away from home have produced seven goals against them, evidence that their matches can quickly open up against proactive opponents.

Freiburg

Away team

Form Outlook

Freiburg are unbeaten in nine competitive matches this season, winning eight, and their Bundesliga start of four wins and one draw has taken them to the summit. They have scored in every competitive away game, including five at Fortuna Düsseldorf and two at Eintracht Frankfurt.

Schuster's side are not simply grinding out narrow results. Nine of their last 10 competitive matches have gone over 2.5 goals, while both teams scored in eight of those games. Their defensive return remains the main concern before this trip, especially after conceding twice to Jablonec from limited opportunities.

Team News

Squad Update

Latest squad information before kick-off.

Bayer Leverkusen

Home team

Squad Status

Guéla Doué remains sidelined by a calf problem, while Kennet Eichhorn is listed as ill and Eliesse Ben Seghir and Christian Kofane are also reported unavailable. Montrell Culbreath's availability was still unclear following his foot injury.

Martínez rotated heavily for Thursday's 4-0 Europa League win at Lech Poznan. The Mainz-style league side, including Schick, Diaby, Andrich, Maza and Aleix García, is expected to return, although this remains an expected lineup rather than a confirmed one.

Freiburg

Away team

Squad Status

Yuito Suzuki is suspended after his second yellow card against Schalke, removing Freiburg's leading early-season Bundesliga scorer. Florent Muslija is out with a knee injury.

Niklas Beste and Derry Scherhant missed the Jablonec squad with knocks, but both were included in the official Bundesliga probable lineup and are expected to be available. Freiburg made seven changes in midweek, leaving several likely league starters fresher for the BayArena.

Tactical Analysis

Tactical Outlook

Bayer LeverkusenHome

Tactical matchup

FreiburgAway

Tactical Outlook

Both managers have recently favoured a 4-2-3-1. Leverkusen's likely Andrich-Aleix García double pivot gives Ibrahim Maza licence to link play around Schick, while Diaby's pace can attack the space behind Freiburg's full-backs. The hosts should have plenty of ball, but they will need protection when their full-backs advance.

Freiburg have used quick wide transitions well, with Grifo's left foot, Scherhant's running and Matanovic's presence in the penalty area giving them a direct outlet. Eggestein and Engelhardt must cope with Leverkusen's central rotations, but Freiburg are equipped to make this uncomfortable when they win possession.

Set pieces could also matter. Freiburg remain dangerous through Grifo's deliveries and Ginter's aerial threat, while Leverkusen have shown enough attacking variety to punish any loose defending after a second ball. Neither side is built to sit deep for 90 minutes.

H2H

Head-to-Head

Previous meetings between the two teams.

07 Mar 2026BundesligaVenue: FreiburgBayer Leverkusen3–3Freiburg
26 Oct 2025BundesligaVenue: Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen2–0Freiburg

Expected Starting XI

Team Lineups

Projected starting lineups for both teams.

Bayer LeverkusenFormation 4-2-3-1

FreiburgFormation 4-2-3-1

Players to Watch

Key Players

Players who could have an important influence on the match.

Bayer Leverkusen

Home team

Patrik SchickST
Scored in each of Leverkusen's first five Bundesliga matches and added two goals at Lech Poznan.
Moussa DiabyRW
His pace and direct running can expose Freiburg when their full-backs move forward.
Ibrahim MazaAM
A regular advanced option who scored Leverkusen's late fourth goal in Poznan.
Robert AndrichCM
Brings energy to the double pivot and scored early in the 4-3 win at Mainz.
Edmond TapsobaCB
The captain is central to containing Freiburg's counter-attacks and set-piece threat.

Freiburg

Away team

Igor MatanovićST
Has started Freiburg's last three league games and already has key early-season goals.
Vincenzo GrifoLW
His set-piece quality and left-footed delivery can create chances even in tight periods.
Maximilian EggesteinCM
The captain has scored in each of Freiburg's last two matches and drives their midfield work.
Derry ScherhantLW
A direct runner who scored at Frankfurt and can attack Leverkusen in transition.
Matthias GinterCB
An experienced organiser at the back and a serious threat from set pieces.

What the Numbers Tell Us

Data Insight

What the recent numbers suggest about the matchup.

Our Reading of the Data

The strongest trend is the volume of goals. Leverkusen have scored 24 times in eight competitive matches this season and six of those games cleared 2.5 goals. Freiburg have been even more consistent in high-scoring matches, with Over 2.5 landing in nine of their last 10 competitive fixtures.

Freiburg have scored 33 goals across that 10-match run and found the net in all four competitive away trips this season. Leverkusen's three home clean sheets are an important counterpoint, but Freiburg's current attacking output makes another shutout difficult to assume.

The teams' last meeting finished 3-3. That alone does not decide this contest, but it matches the current evidence: both sides carry multiple goal threats and neither needs to abandon its attacking identity.

Final Verdict

Editorial

Our ConclusionBayer LeverkusenvsFreiburg

Leverkusen's perfect home record deserves respect, and Schick's form makes the hosts the likelier winners. But Freiburg have arrived at the top of the Bundesliga by playing with belief and scoring regularly, including on the road.

Suzuki's suspension weakens the visitors, yet Freiburg still have enough creativity through Grifo, Scherhant, Eggestein and Matanovic to contribute. Leverkusen's attacking depth, Freiburg's high-scoring record and the recent 3-3 head-to-head point towards an open game.

Over 3.5 Goals at 2.20 is the FreeOddsTips selection. A 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen win is the predicted score.