Besiktas begin their Europa League league-phase campaign at Tüpraş Stadium on Thursday night, and the timing could hardly be better for the Turkish side.
Vincenzo Italiano has made an excellent start in Istanbul. Besiktas have won nine of their 11 competitive matches this season, sit second in the Süper Lig and arrive after consecutive league victories over Fenerbahce and Erzurumspor.
Marseille are moving in the opposite direction. Bruno Genesio started his reign with a convincing 4-0 victory over Strasbourg, but three consecutive Ligue 1 defeats have followed, leaving the French side searching for answers before a difficult European trip to Istanbul.
With Besiktas perfect at home this season and Dusan Vlahovic returning to the starting XI, Besiktas to Win at odds of 2.35 looks like very good value.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Besiktas to Win
Market: Match Result
Correct Score Prediction: Besiktas 2-0 Marseille
Odds: 2.35
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Expected Goals: Under 3.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: No
📅 Date: Thursday 17 September 2026
🏟️ Venue: Tüpraş Stadium, Istanbul
🏆 Competition: UEFA Europa League – League Phase, Matchday 1
Match Preview
There is a completely different feeling around Besiktas compared with this time last season.
Their previous European campaign ended in disappointment, but the arrival of Vincenzo Italiano has changed the mood quickly.
Besiktas have won nine of their opening 11 competitive matches this season and successfully negotiated three Europa League qualifying rounds to reach the league phase.
They beat Midtjylland 3-0 on aggregate, Hradec Kralove 2-0 on aggregate and Kauno Zalgiris 3-1 on aggregate. The Black Eagles have been particularly impressive defensively in Europe, keeping clean sheets in five of their six qualifying matches.
Their domestic form has also improved.
After losing 1-0 at Alanyaspor, Besiktas responded with a remarkable 6-2 home victory over Corum, followed by an impressive 2-1 away win against Fenerbahce.
They then comfortably beat Erzurumspor 3-0 at Tüpraş Stadium last Friday.
The home record is one of the biggest reasons I am backing Besiktas here.
They have won all six competitive home matches this season, keeping five clean sheets during that run.
That makes Istanbul an extremely difficult place for a Marseille team that already looks short of confidence.
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Marseille’s season actually started perfectly.
Genesio’s first Ligue 1 match produced an emphatic 4-0 victory over Strasbourg, but things have gone downhill quickly since then.
Marseille lost 2-0 at Monaco, then suffered a damaging 3-2 home defeat against Paris FC before losing 1-0 at Rennes last Friday.
That means they enter this match after three consecutive defeats, scoring only twice during that run.
The quality is obviously still there.
Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg gives Marseille experience in midfield, while Amine Gouiri and Igor Paixao can cause problems if Besiktas leave space behind their defensive line.
But current confidence matters.
Besiktas are winning games, defending extremely well at home and now welcome back one of their biggest attacking weapons.
Why Besiktas to Win Makes Sense
At 2.35, I think Besiktas are being underestimated.
The most important factor is their home form.
Six competitive matches at Tüpraş Stadium this season have produced six Besiktas victories. Five of those games ended with a clean sheet, and their most recent two league home matches produced nine goals.
That is exactly the kind of home advantage I want to back against a Marseille side coming into the match after three straight defeats.
Then there is Dusan Vlahovic.
The Serbian striker missed the 3-0 win against Erzurumspor through suspension but should return here. Before that suspension, he had scored four goals across his previous two Besiktas appearances.
Adding Vlahovic back into an attack containing Leandro Trossard, Vaclav Cerny and Orkun Kokcu gives Besiktas significantly more threat.
Marseille’s problems are not simply about results either.
They have failed to score in two of their last three matches and have already conceded six goals across four Ligue 1 fixtures.
Their midfield options are also reduced, with Geoffrey Kondogbia and Tochukwu Nnadi expected to miss out.
I would be more cautious if Besiktas were priced around 1.70 or 1.80.
At 2.35, though, the straight home win offers enough value to back a team that is in much better form and has been excellent in Istanbul.
- ✓Besiktas have won 8 of their last 10 competitive matches
- ✓Besiktas have scored 19 goals across their last 10 matches
- ✓Besiktas have conceded only 5 goals across those 10 matches
- ✓Besiktas have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 matches
- ✓Besiktas have won all 6 competitive home games this season
- ✓Besiktas have kept 5 clean sheets in those 6 home matches
- ✓Besiktas beat Fenerbahce 2-1 away in their previous league game
- ✓Besiktas followed that with a 3-0 home win against Erzurumspor
- ✓Besiktas have won 5 of their 6 Europa League matches this season
- ✓Dusan Vlahovic returns after missing the Erzurumspor match through suspension
- ✓Vlahovic scored 4 goals across his previous 2 appearances
- ✓Leandro Trossard scored his first Besiktas goal against Erzurumspor
- ✓Marseille have lost 3 consecutive Ligue 1 matches
- ✓Marseille failed to score in 2 of those 3 defeats
- ✓Marseille have won only 4 of their last 10 competitive matches
- ✓Marseille have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 10 matches
- ✓The previous two H2Hs were both won by the home team
- ✓Our correct score prediction is Besiktas 2-0 Marseille
- ✓Besiktas to Win is available at odds of 2.35
Team News
Besiktas are expected to remain without Ridvan Yilmaz, who is sidelined with a thigh problem.
The big positive is the return of Dusan Vlahovic.
Vlahovic missed the weekend victory over Erzurumspor through suspension but should immediately return to the centre-forward position.
Leandro Trossard scored his first Besiktas goal in that 3-0 victory and should retain his position on the left.
Vaclav Cerny is another dangerous option from wide areas, while Orkun Kokcu remains central to Besiktas’ creativity from midfield.
Marseille are expected to travel without Geoffrey Kondogbia and Tochukwu Nnadi, reducing Genesio’s options centrally.
That should place even greater responsibility on Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg.
Amine Gouiri and Igor Paixao are likely to provide the main attacking threat for the visitors.
Possible Starting Lineups
Besiktas:
Nubel; Murillo, Agbadou, Topcu, Ouattara; Ozcan; Cerny, Olaitan, Kokcu, Trossard; Vlahovic
Marseille:
De Lange; Egan-Riley, Aguerd, Emerson; Weah, Hojbjerg, Abdelli, Gomes; Harit, Gouiri, Paixao
Players to Watch
Dusan Vlahovic — Besiktas
Vlahovic is the obvious player to watch.
He should return fresh after missing the Erzurumspor match through suspension and had scored four goals across his previous two appearances before sitting that one out.
Besiktas should create opportunities at home, and Vlahovic is exactly the type of striker who can punish Marseille if they struggle to deal with crosses and balls into the penalty area.
Leandro Trossard — Besiktas
Trossard is beginning to settle into life in Istanbul.
The former Arsenal attacker scored his first Besiktas goal against Erzurumspor and gives Italiano another player capable of creating something individually when opponents defend deep.
With Vlahovic occupying the centre-backs, Trossard should find space around the edge of the area.
Amine Gouiri — Marseille
Gouiri is one of the players Besiktas cannot afford to ignore despite Marseille’s poor form.
He has enough movement and technical quality to exploit space in transition, particularly if Besiktas’ full-backs push high.
Containing Gouiri will be important if Besiktas are to record another home clean sheet.
Head-to-Head
Besiktas and Marseille have met only twice previously, both during the 2007-08 Champions League group stage.
Marseille 2-0 Besiktas
September 2007
Besiktas 2-1 Marseille
November 2007
That means both previous meetings were won by the home side.
The previous meeting in Istanbul produced a dramatic Besiktas victory, with Bobo scoring an 88th-minute winner after Marseille had equalised through Taye Taiwo.
It has been almost 19 years since then, so the historical matchup obviously carries limited predictive value, but the pattern again highlights how difficult Istanbul can be for visiting European teams.
Final Verdict
Everything about the current setup points me towards Besiktas.
The Black Eagles have won nine of 11 competitive matches, all six of their home games and five of their six Europa League qualifiers.
They also arrive after two impressive domestic victories: 2-1 away against Fenerbahce and 3-0 at home against Erzurumspor.
Marseille, meanwhile, have lost three consecutive Ligue 1 matches and have scored only twice during that losing run.
This is still a talented French side, so I would not underestimate them completely.
But form, confidence and home advantage all favour Besiktas.
The return of Vlahovic is another major positive, while Marseille’s midfield absences could make it difficult for them to control the atmosphere and tempo in Istanbul.
At 2.35, the price is good enough.
I expect Besiktas to control large periods of the match and eventually make their home advantage count.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
Besiktas 2-0 Marseille
Best Bet: Besiktas to Win
Odds: 2.35
Confidence: 4/5
