Manchester City begin the defence of their EFL Cup crown at the Etihad Stadium on Thursday night, and this looks like exactly the type of fixture where Enzo Maresca’s side can put on an attacking show.
City have responded brilliantly to their Community Shield defeat against Arsenal, winning five consecutive competitive matches across the Premier League and Champions League. Norwich arrive in Manchester after a completely different type of game, losing 4-3 at Middlesbrough in a wild Championship contest where their defensive problems were exposed again.
Rotation is inevitable for City, but their squad depth means that players such as Erling Haaland, Antoine Semenyo, Iliman Ndiaye, Mateo Kovacic and Ayyoub Bouaddi could still feature. Haaland has already scored six times this season and may even retain his place through the middle.
Norwich have conceded in every competitive match this season, and nine of their last ten competitive games have produced at least three goals.
This feels like a perfect opportunity for City to attack from the start, score heavily and build even more confidence.
Our best bet is Over 4.5 Goals at odds of 2.75, with a 5-0 Manchester City victory our correct-score prediction.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Over 4.5 Goals
Market: Total Goals
Correct Score Prediction: Manchester City 5-0 Norwich
Odds: 2.75
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Expected Goals: Over 4.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: No
📅 Date: Thursday 17 September 2026
🏟️ Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester
🏆 Competition: EFL Cup – Third Round
Match Preview
Manchester City could hardly arrive in better form.
Enzo Maresca’s first competitive game ended in a disappointing 3-0 Community Shield defeat against Arsenal, but the response has been excellent.
City opened their Premier League season with a 2-1 victory over Bournemouth, followed that with a convincing 4-1 win at Crystal Palace, beat Coventry 1-0 and then started their Champions League campaign with a 2-0 victory away to Porto.
Sunday brought perhaps their most impressive result.
Despite playing most of the Manchester derby with ten men following Phil Foden’s first-half red card, City still found a way to win 1-0 at Old Trafford, with Erling Haaland scoring the decisive goal.
That makes it five victories in a row.
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Thursday should provide a completely different challenge.
Instead of needing patience and defensive discipline against Manchester United, City will be expected to dominate possession against Championship opposition and spend huge periods around the Norwich penalty area.
Maresca is likely to rotate heavily, but that does not necessarily weaken the case for goals.
Players such as Iliman Ndiaye, Antoine Semenyo, Allan and Ayyoub Bouaddi will be desperate to impress, while Haaland could remain in the starting XI.
That combination can be dangerous in cup football.
The players coming into the team are not simply there to protect a result. They need to show Maresca that they deserve more Premier League and Champions League minutes.
Norwich, meanwhile, are certainly capable of playing entertaining football.
Philippe Clement’s side have won five of their nine competitive matches this season and scored 20 goals across their last ten competitive fixtures.
But defensively they have been extremely vulnerable.
Their latest match summed them up perfectly.
Norwich went ahead after only a minute away to Middlesbrough, found themselves 3-1 down before half-time, fought back brilliantly to 3-3 and then conceded a stoppage-time winner to lose 4-3.
Seven goals. Plenty of attacking quality. Very little defensive control.
That is not the profile of team I want facing Manchester City at the Etihad.
Why Over 4.5 Goals Makes Sense
Over 4.5 is obviously an aggressive line.
We need at least five goals, so this is not designed to be the safe selection.
But at 2.75, I think there is enough value to take the risk.
The biggest argument is Norwich’s defensive record.
They have played nine competitive matches this season and conceded in every single one.
Their results include:
- 4-1 vs MK Dons
- 1-2 vs West Brom
- 0-3 vs Millwall
- 2-1 vs Cardiff
- 4-1 vs Burnley
- 0-1 vs Stoke
- 3-1 vs Sheffield United
- 2-1 vs Birmingham
- 3-4 vs Middlesbrough
That means eight of those nine matches have produced Over 2.5 Goals, while their latest game contained seven.
Now the level of opposition rises dramatically.
Manchester City have already shown that they can dismantle weaker opposition when given space, and they have won their last three meetings against Norwich by a combined 14-0 scoreline.
The Etihad meeting in 2021 finished 5-0, while the most recent game at Carrow Road ended 4-0 to City.
Rotation is the obvious concern.
But City’s second unit contains players who will be playing for future starts, and Haaland himself could still lead the line.
If City score twice early, this could become exactly the sort of cup game where Norwich are forced to open up and the scoreline runs away from them.
I can see City reaching four or five themselves.
At 2.75, Over 4.5 Goals is worth backing.
- ✓Manchester City have won 7 of their last 10 competitive matches
- ✓Manchester City have won 5 competitive matches in a row
- ✓City have conceded only 8 goals across their last 10 matches
- ✓City have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 matches
- ✓City have won all 4 Premier League matches this season
- ✓City beat Porto 2-0 away in their Champions League opener
- ✓City beat Manchester United 1-0 despite playing with 10 men
- ✓Erling Haaland has already scored 6 goals this season
- ✓Norwich have won 5 and lost 5 of their last 10 competitive matches
- ✓Norwich have scored 20 goals across those 10 matches
- ✓Norwich have conceded 17 goals across their last 10 matches
- ✓Norwich have not kept a clean sheet in their last 10 competitive matches
- ✓9 of Norwich's last 10 competitive matches produced Over 2.5 Goals
- ✓Both teams scored in 8 of Norwich's last 10 matches
- ✓Norwich lost 4-3 against Middlesbrough in their latest match
- ✓Norwich have conceded in every competitive match this season
- ✓City have won the last 3 H2Hs against Norwich
- ✓City scored 14 goals and conceded 0 across those 3 H2Hs
- ✓Our correct score prediction is Manchester City 5-0 Norwich
- ✓Over 4.5 Goals is available at odds of 2.75
Team News
Manchester City will definitely be without Phil Foden, who begins his domestic suspension after being sent off against Manchester United.
Jeremy Doku is closing in on a return from his calf problem, but Maresca has not confirmed whether he will be risked in this match.
A number of changes are expected.
Goalkeeper Geronimo Rulli could make his City debut, while Allan may also be handed his first appearance.
Vitor Reis, Rico Lewis, Mateo Kovacic, Ayyoub Bouaddi and Iliman Ndiaye are all candidates to come into the starting XI.
The interesting decision concerns Erling Haaland.
Despite expected rotation elsewhere, Haaland could retain his place through the middle as he looks to continue an excellent start to the campaign.
Norwich travel without Gabriel Forsyth, Mirko Topic, Ali Ahmed and Lucien Mahovo, who are all sidelined with knee injuries.
Daniel Grimshaw is expected to start in goal.
Mohamed Toure has already scored five goals in seven appearances, although he could initially be rested, with Jovon Makama potentially leading the line.
Possible Starting Lineups
Manchester City:
Rulli; Khusanov, Reis, Guehi, Lewis; Kovacic, Bouaddi; Allan, Ndiaye, Semenyo; Haaland
Norwich:
Grimshaw; Stacey, McConville, Cordoba, Chrisene; Wright, Mattsson; Maghoma, Schwartau, Musaba; Makama
Players to Watch
Erling Haaland — Manchester City
If Haaland starts, the Over 4.5 selection immediately becomes more interesting.
The Norwegian already has six goals this season, including two against Crystal Palace, two away to Porto and the winner in Sunday’s Manchester derby.
Norwich have struggled badly to keep opponents away from their penalty area, and this is exactly the kind of matchup where Haaland can score more than once.
Even 60 or 70 minutes could be enough.
Iliman Ndiaye — Manchester City
Ndiaye is one of the players who could benefit most from rotation.
A rare start would give him an opportunity to show Maresca what he can offer, and his ability to attack defenders directly should be particularly useful against a Norwich defence likely to spend most of the evening under pressure.
Mohamed Toure — Norwich
Toure deserves respect despite the difficult matchup.
The 22-year-old has already scored five times in seven appearances this season and opened the scoring in Norwich’s 4-3 defeat at Middlesbrough.
He may start on the bench, but he represents Norwich’s clearest goal threat if introduced.
Head-to-Head
Manchester City have dominated the recent meetings.
They have won the last three head-to-heads, scoring 14 goals without conceding.
Manchester City 5-0 Norwich
August 2021
Norwich 0-4 Manchester City
February 2022
City’s official preview also confirms that their last Etihad meeting ended 5-0 and the most recent fixture finished 4-0 at Carrow Road.
Historically, City have won 39 of the 72 meetings between the clubs, with Norwich winning ten.
The recent gap in quality has been considerably wider than the overall H2H suggests.
Final Verdict
This is exactly the type of EFL Cup tie where I am willing to take a bigger goals line.
City are in excellent form, have won five consecutive games and should have complete control of possession at the Etihad.
Norwich can score goals themselves, but they simply have not shown that they can defend consistently.
They have conceded in every competitive game this season and have just shipped four at Middlesbrough.
Even City’s rotated XI contains Premier League and Champions League-level players, while the possibility of Haaland starting gives the hosts an elite finisher against a Championship defence.
The danger is obvious: City could control the game, win comfortably and stop at 3-0 or 4-0.
But 2.75 is a big enough price to accept that risk.
I expect Norwich to struggle badly once City begin moving the ball quickly around the box, and if the first goal arrives early, this has the potential to get ugly.
Our prediction is Manchester City 5-0 Norwich, making Over 4.5 Goals at 2.75 our best bet.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
Manchester City 5-0 Norwich
Best Bet: Over 4.5 Goals
Odds: 2.75
Confidence: 4/5
