Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

FreeOddsTips Verdict

Updated 23 Oct 2026

PredictionChelsea Asian Handicap -1

Best Odds2.20

Value BetOver 2.5 Goals

Confidence★★★☆☆

Best available price · 18+ · Play responsiblyBet Chelsea Asian Handicap -1 @ 2.20

Written by GüvenSports Betting & Product Specialist

Updated 23 October 2026 · 3 min read

Chelsea host Tottenham at Stamford Bridge on Saturday evening in one of the Premier League’s standout London derbies. Xabi Alonso’s side arrive in far better shape, sitting fourth after seven league matches and following a 5-1 win over Bournemouth with a controlled 2-0 victory at Everton.

Tottenham finally recorded their first league win of the season on Monday, beating Coventry 3-1, but Roberto De Zerbi’s team remain 16th and are yet to win away in the Premier League. Their return of one goal across three away league games is a major concern before a demanding trip across the capital.

Chelsea have been open at times this season, but their attacking level has been high. João Pedro, Morgan Rogers, Pedro Neto and Cole Palmer give Alonso several ways to hurt opponents, while Tottenham have important absences and doubts across midfield and defence.

Our Chelsea vs Tottenham prediction is Chelsea Asian Handicap -1 at 2.20. A one-goal Chelsea victory returns the stake, while a win by two or more produces a full payout. We expect the hosts to make their recent superiority count, with a 3-1 correct-score prediction.

Match Preview

Chelsea’s last two league performances have shown a more convincing balance. They scored five against Bournemouth before winning 2-0 at Everton, where Pedro Neto struck twice and the Caicedo-Henderson midfield pairing again gave Alonso control in central areas. Chelsea still have defensive questions, particularly with Emiliano Martinez sidelined, but Mike Penders is set for an important chance after helping preserve the clean sheet at Goodison Park.

Tottenham’s victory over Coventry should lift the mood, especially after James Maddison scored on his first competitive start since May 2025 and Omar Marmoush opened his Spurs account. Yet the wider record remains unconvincing: Spurs have collected no away win this league season and have scored only once in three trips. Bentancur’s suspension also removes an experienced midfield option for a game in which Chelsea should have plenty of possession.

De Zerbi may again have to adjust his defensive shape depending on Pedro Porro’s availability. That uncertainty could be exploited by Chelsea’s wide rotations, particularly Neto’s direct running on the right and Jorrel Hato’s overlaps from the left. Tottenham have enough individual threat through Kudus, Maddison, Marmoush and Solanke to score, but Chelsea have the deeper attacking unit and stronger recent level.

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Our Best BetEditor’s Choice

Chelsea Asian Handicap -1

Chelsea have scored seven goals in their last two league games
Tottenham are winless in three league away matches
Chelsea have won the last six league meetings

Best Odds2.20Decimal

18+ · Gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.orgBet Chelsea Asian Handicap -1 @ 2.20

Why Chelsea Asian Handicap -1 Makes Sense

Chelsea have found attacking rhythm at the right time. Their last two league games brought seven goals, with João Pedro, Morgan Rogers, Pedro Neto and Jordan Henderson all contributing. Neto’s two-goal display at Everton also followed a fine showing against Bournemouth, when he assisted João Pedro.

The -1 line is preferable to the straight home win because it protects the stake if Chelsea win by exactly one goal. Tottenham’s Coventry victory was useful, but it does not erase an away record of no wins, one goal scored and four conceded in three league trips.

Spurs can carry a threat through Kudus, Maddison, Marmoush and Solanke, especially against a Chelsea side now without Emiliano Martinez. But Chelsea should control more of the ball through Caicedo and Henderson, create superior wide overloads and have enough firepower to push beyond a narrow victory.

Form & Recent Matches

Newest match first.

Chelsea

WWLDW

17 Oct 2026AEverton
Premier League2-0W
10 Oct 2026HBournemouth
Premier League5-1W
18 Sep 2026ABrentford
Premier League0-3L
12 Sep 2026HHull City
Premier League2-2D
9 Sep 2026HLeeds United
League Cup6-3W

Tottenham

WDLLD

19 Oct 2026HCoventry City
Premier League3-1W
10 Oct 2026AManchester United
Premier League1-1D
19 Sep 2026HAston Villa
Premier League2-3L
15 Sep 2026ALiverpool
League Cup1-3L
12 Sep 2026HEverton
Premier League0-0D

Match Statistics

Last 10 Matches

Chelsea6 W · 1 D · 2 L

2.78Avg goals scored

1.78Avg goals conceded

2/9Clean sheets

6Wins

1Draws

2Losses

Based on 9 completed matches (fewer than 10 available).

Tottenham1 W · 2 D · 2 L

1.40Avg goals scored

1.60Avg goals conceded

1/5Clean sheets

1Wins

2Draws

2Losses

Based on 5 completed matches (fewer than 10 available).

GoalsBTTSHalf TimeClean SheetsForm

Statistic	Chelsea	Tottenham
Avg goals scored	2.78	1.40
Avg goals conceded	1.78	1.60
Scored 0 goals	1/9	1/5
Scored 1 goal	1/9	2/5
Scored 2 goals	3/9	1/5
Scored 3+ goals	4/9	1/5
Conceded 0 goals	2/9	1/5
Conceded 1 goal	1/9	2/5
Conceded 2 goals	3/9	0/5
Conceded 3+ goals	3/9	2/5

Statistic	Chelsea	Tottenham
BTTS — Yes	6/9	4/5
BTTS — No	3/9	1/5

Half-time data unavailable.

Statistic	Chelsea	Tottenham
Clean sheets	2/9	1/5
Failed to keep a clean sheet	7/9	4/5

Chelsea

WWLDWLWWW

6 Wins · 1 Draws · 2 Losses

Tottenham

WDLLD

1 Wins · 2 Draws · 2 Losses

Newest match first.

Form Analysis

Recent Form

How both teams have been performing.

Chelsea

Home team

Form Outlook

Chelsea have won six of their nine documented competitive matches this season and have scored 25 goals across that sequence. The most encouraging element is the current league run: a 5-1 home win over Bournemouth was followed by a 2-0 win at Everton.

Alonso’s side remain capable of conceding chances, with 16 goals allowed in those nine matches, but their home attack has been relentless. Chelsea have scored 19 goals in five competitive home games and have scored at least four times in three of them.

Tottenham

Away team

Form Outlook

Tottenham’s 3-1 win over Coventry ended a six-game wait for a league victory and gave Maddison and Marmoush timely confidence. The performance was positive, with Spurs controlling possession and creating 15 shots, but they needed a stoppage-time third goal to settle the contest.

The away profile remains the issue. Spurs are without an away league win, have scored once in three league trips and face a Chelsea side that has been highly productive at Stamford Bridge.

Team News

Squad Update

Latest squad information before kick-off.

Chelsea

Home team

Squad Status

Emiliano Martinez is out after fracturing his jaw against Everton and undergoing surgery, so Mike Penders is expected to deputise in goal. Pep Chavarria and Emmanuel Emegha are unavailable, while Reece James remains out after minor knee surgery and Jamie Gittens is also sidelined with an ankle injury.

Malo Gusto has recovered from illness and is available. The defensive unit of Josh Acheampong, Maxence Lacroix, Levi Colwill and Jorrel Hato started the Everton win, although Gusto is an option at right-back.

Tottenham

Away team

Squad Status

Rodrigo Bentancur is suspended, while Savio, Lucas Bergvall, Xavi Simons, Wilson Odobert and Mykhailo Mudryk are unavailable. Those absences restrict De Zerbi’s midfield and wide options.

Pedro Porro is working back from a hamstring problem and remains a fitness question. Destiny Udogie is also doubtful. Tosin Adarabioyo and Andy Robertson had minor problems against Coventry but were expected to be available, while Marmoush should be checked after leaving that game following his goal.

Tactical Analysis

Tactical Outlook

ChelseaHome

Tactical matchup

TottenhamAway

Tactical Outlook

Chelsea are expected to retain the 4-2-3-1 used in their last two league victories. Caicedo and Henderson should give them a stable base against Tottenham’s attempts to play through midfield, while Palmer can receive between the lines behind João Pedro. Neto’s pace and Hato’s overlapping runs are a natural route to testing Tottenham’s uncertain full-back positions.

Tottenham may return to a 4-2-3-1 if Porro is fit, but De Zerbi used a 3-4-2-1 hybrid against Coventry and could retain extra central-defensive cover if his full-back options are limited. Tonali will need to protect the centre while Maddison and Kudus try to connect transitions with Solanke and Marmoush.

The key contest is likely to be Chelsea’s wide attackers against Spurs’ changing defensive structure. Tottenham can threaten if they draw Chelsea forward and release Kudus or Marmoush quickly, but sustained Chelsea territory should create repeated chances around the Spurs penalty area.

H2H

Head-to-Head

Previous meetings between the two teams.

19 May 2026Premier LeagueVenue: ChelseaChelsea2–1Tottenham
01 Nov 2025Premier LeagueVenue: TottenhamChelsea1–0Tottenham
03 Apr 2025Premier LeagueVenue: ChelseaChelsea1–0Tottenham
08 Dec 2024Premier LeagueVenue: TottenhamChelsea4–3Tottenham
02 May 2024Premier LeagueVenue: ChelseaChelsea2–0Tottenham

Expected Starting XI

Team Lineups

Projected starting lineups for both teams.

ChelseaFormation 4-2-3-1

TottenhamFormation 4-2-3-1

Players to Watch

Key Players

Players who could have an important influence on the match.

Chelsea

Home team

Joao PedroST
Chelsea’s league top scorer has five goals and three assists, and leads the line after consecutive league starts.
Pedro NetoRW
Scored twice at Everton after assisting João Pedro against Bournemouth and offers pace against an unsettled defence.
Cole PalmerAM
The central creator has two league goals and three assists and can exploit space between Tottenham’s midfield and defence.
Moises CaicedoCM
Chelsea’s captain at Everton brings ball-winning and progression in the central battle.
Morgan RogersLW
Four league goals underline his threat when he drives inside from the left.

Tottenham

Away team

James MaddisonAM
Scored on his first competitive start since May 2025 and adds a major creative and set-piece threat.
Mohammed KudusRW
His carrying ability gives Tottenham a direct outlet when they can attack space quickly.
Dominic SolankeST
Tottenham’s main orthodox striker scored the late equaliser at Manchester United and can occupy Chelsea’s centre-backs.
Sandro TonaliCM
The secure midfield starter will be vital in slowing Chelsea’s central progression.
Micky van de VenCB
His recovery pace is central to Spurs coping with Neto, Rogers and João Pedro in transition.

What the Numbers Tell Us

Data Insight

What the recent numbers suggest about the matchup.

Our Reading of the Data

Chelsea’s recent output supports a positive home angle. They have scored 25 goals in nine documented competitive matches, with at least two goals in seven of those games. At Stamford Bridge, they have scored 19 times across five competitive fixtures.

Tottenham’s league return is far lower: six goals in seven games, including only one in three away matches. Their Coventry win offers a reason to respect their attacking potential, but it was their first league victory of the campaign.

Goals remain a credible secondary angle because Chelsea have conceded 13 times in seven league matches and Tottenham have attacking players capable of exploiting the absence of Martinez. That fits the 3-1 score call, but Chelsea’s superior attacking volume is the central reason for the handicap selection.

Final Verdict

Editorial

Our ConclusionChelseavsTottenham

Chelsea are not without risk here. Penders is likely to make his first Premier League start in goal, and Tottenham’s returning attacking options should make them more dangerous than their early-season scoring record suggests.

Still, Chelsea have been the better team recently, their home scoring record is outstanding and Spurs have not won away in the league. Chelsea Asian Handicap -1 at 2.20 is the main selection: a one-goal win returns the stake, while a more convincing home performance delivers the full result. Our predicted score is Chelsea 3-1 Tottenham.