Croatia vs England Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

FreeOddsTips Verdict

Updated 2 Oct 2026

PredictionOver 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score

Best Odds1.95

Value BetEngland to Win

Confidence★★★★☆

Best available price · 18+ · Play responsiblyBet Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score @ 1.95

Written by GüvenSports Betting & Product Specialist

Updated 2 October 2026 · 3 min read

Croatia host England in Rijeka on Saturday evening in one of the standout fixtures of UEFA Nations League Group A3. Slaven Bilić’s side are back on home soil after a difficult night against Spain, while Thomas Tuchel takes England to Croatia looking to build on the 2-0 win over Czechia.

Croatia opened their Nations League campaign with a 2-1 victory away to Czechia before losing 4-1 in Spain. Luka Modrić remains the player who sets the rhythm in midfield, while Joško Gvardiol gives them quality from the back and Andrej Kramarić remains a threat around the penalty area. England have also been involved in two very different games, losing 3-2 to Spain at Wembley before Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane scored in the win in Prague.

These teams also know each other very well. England beat Croatia 4-2 at the World Cup in June, with Harry Kane scoring twice and Jude Bellingham and Marcus Rashford also finding the net. Croatia caused England problems in that game as well, and the six-goal scoreline was another reminder that meetings between these two can become very open once the first goal arrives.

That is why we prefer the goals market rather than simply backing England to win. Croatia should have enough at home to create chances, but England have more pace and quality in the final third and we expect them to edge another entertaining game. FreeOddsTips’ prediction is Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score at 1.95, with a 2-1 England victory expected.

Match Preview

Croatia are coming into this game after a difficult night in Spain, where they were beaten 4-1, but their opening 2-1 victory in Czechia showed why they remain dangerous when they can move the ball quickly through midfield and get numbers around the opposition box. Slaven Bilić still has experienced players such as Luka Modrić to control periods of the game, while Croatia have enough quality further forward to make England work defensively.

England responded well to their 3-2 defeat against Spain by winning 2-0 in Prague. Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane scored after Czechia were reduced to 10 men, and Thomas Tuchel’s side created enough chances to win by more. England should again have plenty of the ball in Rijeka, but the Spain game showed that they can still be exposed when a match becomes stretched.

That is why goals appeal more than simply backing England to win. Croatia have enough attacking quality to contribute, while England have Kane and several players around him capable of turning one good spell into two or three goals. The previous meeting finished 4-2 to England, and another game with chances at both ends would be no surprise.

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Our Best BetEditor’s Choice

Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score

England beat Croatia 4-2 at the World Cup in June
Both teams have scored in four of England's last five
Croatia have conceded seven goals in their last two

Best Odds1.95Decimal

18+ · Gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.orgBet Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score @ 1.95

Why Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score Makes Sense

There is a strong goals angle whenever these two teams meet. England beat Croatia 4-2 at the World Cup in June, and both sides have already been involved in open Nations League matches during this international window.

Croatia have enough quality to score in Rijeka, especially with Luka Modrić, Mateo Kovačić, Martin Baturina and Ivan Perišić capable of creating chances. The concern is at the other end. They conceded four against Spain on Tuesday and have now allowed six goals across their opening two Nations League matches.

England should create chances as well. Harry Kane and Anthony Gordon have both scored in each of England's first two Nations League games, while Bukayo Saka gives them another threat from wide areas. We expect England to edge the match, but Croatia scoring at home makes Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score at 1.95 the stronger bet.

Form & Recent Matches

Newest match first.

Croatia

LWLWW

29 Sep 2026ASpain
UEFA Nations League1-4L
26 Sep 2026ACzechia
UEFA Nations League2-1W
02 Jul 2026APortugal
FIFA World Cup1-2L
27 Jun 2026HGhana
FIFA World Cup2-1W
23 Jun 2026APanama
FIFA World Cup1-0W

England

WLWLW

29 Sep 2026ACzechia
UEFA Nations League2-0W
26 Sep 2026HSpain
UEFA Nations League2-3L
18 Jul 2026AFrance
FIFA World Cup6-4W
15 Jul 2026HArgentina
FIFA World Cup1-2L
11 Jul 2026ANorway
FIFA World Cup2-1W

Match Statistics

Last 10 Matches

Croatia5 W · 0 D · 5 L

1.40Avg goals scored

1.90Avg goals conceded

1/10Clean sheets

5Wins

0Draws

5Losses

England7 W · 1 D · 2 L

2.40Avg goals scored

1.50Avg goals conceded

3/10Clean sheets

7Wins

1Draws

2Losses

GoalsBTTSHalf TimeClean SheetsForm

Statistic	Croatia	England
Avg goals scored	1.40	2.40
Avg goals conceded	1.90	1.50
Scored 0 goals	1/10	1/10
Scored 1 goal	4/10	1/10
Scored 2 goals	5/10	5/10
Scored 3+ goals	0/10	3/10
Conceded 0 goals	1/10	3/10
Conceded 1 goal	4/10	2/10
Conceded 2 goals	2/10	3/10
Conceded 3+ goals	3/10	2/10

Statistic	Croatia	England
BTTS — Yes	8/10	7/10
BTTS — No	2/10	3/10

Half-time data unavailable.

Statistic	Croatia	England
Clean sheets	1/10	3/10
Failed to keep a clean sheet	9/10	7/10

Croatia

LWLWWLWLLW

5 Wins · 0 Draws · 5 Losses

England

WLWLWWWWDW

7 Wins · 1 Draws · 2 Losses

Newest match first.

Form Analysis

Recent Form

How both teams have been performing.

Croatia

Home team

Form Outlook

Croatia have been difficult to predict this year. They have beaten Czechia, Ghana, Panama, Slovenia and Colombia, but defeats to Spain, Portugal, England, Belgium and Brazil show how vulnerable they can become against stronger attacking teams.

The 4-1 defeat in Spain was the latest warning. Croatia can still control periods through Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovačić, and they have scored in eight of their last 10 matches, but clean sheets have been rare. That combination makes another game with goals at both ends very realistic.

England

Away team

Form Outlook

England have won seven of their last 10 matches and continue to carry plenty of attacking threat. Their World Cup run included wins over Croatia, DR Congo, Mexico and Norway before a dramatic 6-4 victory over France in the third-place match.

Thomas Tuchel's side have started the Nations League with a 3-2 defeat to Spain and a 2-0 win in Czechia. Harry Kane and Anthony Gordon scored in both matches, but England have conceded in six of their last 10, so there is still enough defensive vulnerability to give Croatia a chance of scoring.

Team News

Squad Update

Latest squad information before kick-off.

Croatia

Home team

Squad Status

Croatia could make changes after the 4-1 defeat to Spain. Luka Modrić only came from the bench in Sevilla and is a strong candidate to return to the starting XI, while Martin Baturina could also come back into the side after scoring against England at the World Cup.

Josip Stanišić missed the Spain match with a viral infection and remains a doubt. Josip Juranović and Martin Erlić withdrew before the international window through injury, while Marin Pongračić was replaced at half-time against Spain. Croatia have no confirmed suspensions.

England

Away team

Squad Status

England have also had injury problems during the international window. Nico O'Reilly has now left the squad after missing the win over Czechia, while Ezri Konsa has also been dealing with a minor problem.

Jude Bellingham came off the bench in Prague and picked up a small knock, so his fitness will be monitored before the Croatia game. Thomas Tuchel still has plenty of attacking options, with Harry Kane, Anthony Gordon and Bukayo Saka all available, while Trent Alexander-Arnold impressed on his return to the starting XI against Czechia.

Tactical Analysis

Tactical Outlook

CroatiaHome

Tactical matchup

EnglandAway

Tactical Outlook

Croatia should be more aggressive than they were against Spain, especially when they have possession in midfield. Modrić and Kovačić will look to slow England's press and find Baturina or Perišić between the lines, while Gvardiol can step forward from the back to help Croatia build attacks.

England are likely to attack with more pace. Gordon has been dangerous from the left, Saka can isolate defenders on the opposite side and Kane will constantly drop into spaces before attacking the penalty area. Trent Alexander-Arnold also gives England another route through early crosses and diagonal passes.

The key could be what happens when possession changes hands. Croatia still commit players forward and Spain repeatedly found space once they broke through midfield. England have the speed to exploit those areas, but the same attacking approach can leave them open when Croatia counter. That should create chances at both ends and fits the goals bet well.

H2H

Head-to-Head

Previous meetings between the two teams.

17 Jun 2026FIFA World CupVenue: NeutralCroatia2–4England
13 Jun 2021UEFA European ChampionshipVenue: EnglandCroatia0–1England
18 Nov 2018UEFA Nations LeagueVenue: EnglandCroatia1–2England
12 Oct 2018UEFA Nations LeagueVenue: CroatiaCroatia0–0England
11 Jul 2018FIFA World CupVenue: NeutralCroatia2–1England

Expected Starting XI

Team Lineups

Projected starting lineups for both teams.

CroatiaFormation 3-5-2

EnglandFormation 4-2-3-1

Players to Watch

Key Players

Players who could have an important influence on the match.

Croatia

Home team

Luka ModrićCM
Still Croatia's main controller in midfield and capable of changing the tempo of the game.
Martin BaturinaAM
Scored against England at the World Cup and gives Croatia creativity between the lines.
Ivan PerišićLWB
Offers experience, width and a constant crossing threat from the left.
Mateo KovačićCM
Important when Croatia need to play through England's press and keep possession.
Ante BudimirST
Gives Croatia a physical presence in the box and a target for crosses.

England

Away team

Harry KaneST
Scored twice against Croatia in June and remains England's biggest goal threat.
Anthony GordonLW
Has scored in both of England's opening Nations League matches.
Bukayo SakaRW
Gives England pace, one-against-one quality and a constant threat from the right.
Jude BellinghamAM
Can arrive late into the box and link midfield with Kane.
Trent Alexander-ArnoldRB
Created Gordon's goal against Czechia and offers a major passing threat from deep.

What the Numbers Tell Us

Data Insight

What the recent numbers suggest about the matchup.

Our Reading of the Data

The recent numbers point strongly towards goals. Croatia have scored in eight of their last 10 matches, but they have also conceded regularly against stronger opposition. Their latest 4-1 defeat to Spain followed the 4-2 World Cup loss to England in June.

England have also been involved in plenty of open matches. They have scored 13 goals across their last five competitive games, while both teams have scored in four of those five. The 3-2 defeat to Spain showed again that England can create plenty while still leaving chances at the other end.

That combination fits this market well. Croatia should be capable of scoring in Rijeka, but England have enough attacking quality through Kane, Gordon, Saka and Bellingham to push the game beyond 2.5 goals.

Final Verdict

Editorial

Our ConclusionCroatiavsEngland

This looks much more like a goals game than a match to approach through the result market alone. Croatia have enough quality at home to trouble England, especially if Modrić and Baturina return, but their defensive performances against Spain and England this year are difficult to ignore.

England should create the better chances and we still expect them to edge the match, but a clean sheet would be a surprise. Our best bet is Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score at 1.95, with England winning 2-1.