Everton vs Newcastle Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview

FreeOddsTips Verdict

Updated 30 Oct 2026

PredictionOver 2.5 Goals

Best Odds2.01

Value BetBoth Teams to Score

Confidence★★★☆☆

Best available price · 18+ · Play responsiblyBet Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.01

Written by GüvenSports Betting & Product Specialist

Updated 30 October 2026 · 3 min read

Everton host Newcastle United in the EFL Cup fourth round on Thursday night, with both clubs one win away from the quarter-finals. The sides meet again in the Premier League only four days later, but neither manager has indicated that this cup tie will be treated as an afterthought.

David Moyes has challenged Everton to respond after consecutive 2-0 league defeats to Chelsea and Arsenal. Their cup route has been more convincing, however, with Preston North End beaten 4-0 and Wolves edged out 1-0 at Hill Dickinson Stadium.

Newcastle arrive after a timely 2-0 win at Crystal Palace, where Will Osula and Harvey Barnes scored after the break. Matthias Jaissle has spoken of going all in for the competition, so there should still be plenty of attacking depth in the visiting side despite a tight schedule.

FreeOddsTips’ Everton vs Newcastle prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 2.01. Rotation, attacking options on both benches and the knockout context could make this a more open contest than Everton’s recent league results suggest.

Match Preview

Everton’s recent problems have been at the attacking end rather than in their general defensive structure. Thierno Barry remains their main goal threat after six goals in all competitions, while Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Charly Alcaraz and the wide players give Moyes routes to create more than they managed against Chelsea and Arsenal. The potential return of Jack Grealish would add another creator, although he remains a doubt after illness.

Newcastle have been much less predictable. Their last 10 competitive fixtures have produced 16 goals scored and 16 conceded, with six clearing the Over 2.5 line. Their away record includes three clean-sheet wins but also 4-1 defeats at Leeds and Coventry, underlining how quickly games can open up when their defensive structure is stretched.

Jaissle’s Palace selection showed the options available to him: Barnes, Jacob Murphy, Anthony Elanga, Osula and Yoane Wissa can all provide pace or finishing in the final third. Everton’s likely changes, coupled with Jarrad Branthwaite’s continued absence, leave room for Newcastle to hurt them in transition. At the other end, Newcastle’s rotated back line will have to cope with Barry’s physical presence and Everton’s set-piece delivery. Both teams should play with freedom rather than settle for a cautious league-style stalemate.

View More Betting Tips

Explore more FreeOddsTips football previews for fresh match winner, goals and BTTS angles across the week’s card.

For cup nights, compare team news and expected line-ups before building your final selections. You can also the the Premier League prediction for this match.

Our Best BetEditor’s Choice

Over 2.5 Goals

Newcastle have seen Over 2.5 Goals in six of 10
Both clubs have strong attacking options
Cup selection changes can open the game

Best Odds2.01Decimal

18+ · Gamble responsibly · BeGambleAware.orgBet Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.01

Why Over 2.5 Goals Makes Sense

Over 2.5 Goals is supported more by the likely shape of this cup tie than by Everton's recent league scorelines. Moyes' side have drawn blanks in their last two league games, but they scored four at Preston in the previous EFL Cup round and have Barry, Alcaraz, Dewsbury-Hall and several quick wide options capable of changing that pattern.

Newcastle bring the more consistent goals trend. Six of their last 10 competitive matches have produced at least three goals, while their away fixtures have ranged from three clean-sheet victories to two 4-1 defeats. That volatility is relevant against an Everton side likely to rotate in places and missing Branthwaite.

Jaissle intends to field his strongest available side, and Barnes, Osula, Wissa, Murphy and Elanga offer several different routes to goal. With both teams pursuing a quarter-final place and no need to protect a league point, Over 2.5 Goals at 2.01 is preferred to trying to pick the match winner.

Form & Recent Matches

Newest match first.

Everton

LLDWW

24 Oct 2026AArsenal
Premier League0-2L
17 Oct 2026HChelsea
Premier League0-2L
11 Oct 2026AHull City
Premier League2-2D
19 Sep 2026HIpswich Town
Premier League1-0W
16 Sep 2026HWolverhampton Wanderers
EFL Cup1-0W

Newcastle

WLLWL

25 Oct 2026ACrystal Palace
Premier League2-0W
17 Oct 2026HAston Villa
Premier League0-1L
12 Oct 2026ACoventry City
Premier League1-4L
19 Sep 2026HHull City
Premier League2-1W
14 Sep 2026ALeeds United
Premier League1-4L

Match Statistics

Last 10 Matches

Everton4 W · 4 D · 2 L

1.30Avg goals scored

0.90Avg goals conceded

5/10Clean sheets

4Wins

4Draws

2Losses

Newcastle5 W · 2 D · 3 L

1.60Avg goals scored

1.60Avg goals conceded

3/10Clean sheets

5Wins

2Draws

3Losses

GoalsBTTSHalf TimeClean SheetsForm

Statistic	Everton	Newcastle
Avg goals scored	1.30	1.60
Avg goals conceded	0.90	1.60
Scored 0 goals	3/10	1/10
Scored 1 goal	3/10	3/10
Scored 2 goals	3/10	5/10
Scored 3+ goals	1/10	1/10
Conceded 0 goals	5/10	3/10
Conceded 1 goal	1/10	2/10
Conceded 2 goals	4/10	3/10
Conceded 3+ goals	0/10	2/10

Statistic	Everton	Newcastle
BTTS — Yes	3/10	6/10
BTTS — No	7/10	4/10

Half-time data unavailable.

Statistic	Everton	Newcastle
Clean sheets	5/10	3/10
Failed to keep a clean sheet	5/10	7/10

Everton

LLDWWDDDWW

4 Wins · 4 Draws · 2 Losses

Newcastle

WLLWLWDWWD

5 Wins · 2 Draws · 3 Losses

Newest match first.

Form Analysis

Recent Form

How both teams have been performing.

Everton

Home team

Form Outlook

Everton's 4-4-2 record across their last 10 competitive matches is solid, but the immediate picture is less encouraging after back-to-back 2-0 league losses. They have not scored in either of those games and Moyes has called for more chance creation and better finishing.

Their home record remains encouraging: three wins, one draw and one defeat in five competitive fixtures, with three clean sheets. The cup has also brought a more positive version of Everton, including the 4-0 win at Preston, so this is a useful chance to reset after difficult league opponents.

Newcastle

Away team

Form Outlook

Newcastle's last 10 matches have been eventful rather than controlled, producing 16 goals for and 16 against. Their 2-0 win at Crystal Palace was a welcome response after defeats to Aston Villa and Coventry, with Osula and Barnes providing the goals.

Away form has split sharply. Newcastle have won three of their last five away matches without conceding, but the losses at Leeds and Coventry both finished 4-1. That contrast makes them dangerous but far from secure when the game becomes stretched.

Team News

Squad Update

Latest squad information before kick-off.

Everton

Home team

Squad Status

Jarrad Branthwaite is expected to remain unavailable under concussion protocols. Jack Grealish missed the Arsenal defeat through sickness and is a doubt, while Christian Nørgaard is available but still building match fitness after a delayed pre-season.

Moyes has described his squad as small, so rotation is likely to be measured rather than wholesale. Maitland-Niles, Michael Keane, Hayden Hackney, Alcaraz and Tyler Dibling are among the players pushing for starts after appearing from the bench or sitting out recent league selections.

Newcastle

Away team

Squad Status

Tino Livramento remains out with a knee injury. Matias Fernandez-Pardo is doubtful through illness and Lewis Miley is being assessed after a knock, while Ewen Jaouen is also unavailable.

Anthony Elanga and Jacob Ramsey have returned from injury and both came off the bench at Crystal Palace. Jaissle has said he plans to select the best available side, although changes are still possible with Everton due to visit Newcastle in the league four days later.

Tactical Analysis

Tactical Outlook

EvertonHome

Tactical matchup

NewcastleAway

Tactical Outlook

Everton are expected to retain a four-man defence and use Barry as the reference point up front, with runners either side and an attacking midfielder close to him. Their recent selections have given Garner, Armstrong and Dewsbury-Hall responsibility for controlling the middle, but a possible cup midfield including Hackney would bring more energy and forward running.

Newcastle's 4-2-3-1 can quickly become aggressive after turnovers. At Crystal Palace, Murphy's right-sided cross supplied Osula before Dedić's cutback created Barnes' goal. Everton must prevent those wide deliveries, especially if an unfamiliar full-back role is again required on the right.

The centre of the pitch should be competitive, with Nico González and Joelinton or Ramsey seeking to move the ball forward quickly against Everton's midfield base. Everton can threaten Newcastle's changed defence through Barry's movement, second balls and set pieces. Both sides have enough pace in wide areas for transitions to become a major feature.

H2H

Head-to-Head

Previous meetings between the two teams.

28 Feb 2026Premier LeagueVenue: NewcastleEverton3–2Newcastle
Nov 2025Premier LeagueVenue: EvertonEverton1–4Newcastle
May 2025Premier LeagueVenue: NewcastleEverton1–0Newcastle
Oct 2024Premier LeagueVenue: EvertonEverton0–0Newcastle
Apr 2024Premier LeagueVenue: NewcastleEverton1–1Newcastle
Dec 2023Premier LeagueVenue: EvertonEverton3–0Newcastle

Expected Starting XI

Team Lineups

Projected starting lineups for both teams.

EvertonFormation 4-2-3-1

NewcastleFormation 4-2-3-1

Players to Watch

Key Players

Players who could have an important influence on the match.

Everton

Home team

Thierno BarryST
Everton's leading scorer has six goals in all competitions, including three in the win at Preston.
Kiernan Dewsbury-HallCM
Offers late runs, set-piece quality and has two goals this season.
Charly AlcarazAM
Scored the winner against Wolves in the previous EFL Cup round and is a strong rotation option.
Tyrique GeorgeLW
Has started Everton's last two league matches and gives them direct running from the left.

Newcastle

Away team

Harvey BarnesLW
Scored his fourth goal of the season at Crystal Palace and remains Newcastle's sharpest wide finisher.
Will OsulaST
Scored in his latest start and has a major chance to retain the central role.
Nico GonzálezCM
Controls Newcastle's build-up and helped initiate the move for Barnes' goal at Palace.
Lewis HallLB
An influential attacking full-back who created the winner at Millwall in the last cup round.

What the Numbers Tell Us

Data Insight

What the recent numbers suggest about the matchup.

Our Reading of the Data

Everton's last 10 results point towards lower-scoring football: five clean sheets, 13 goals scored and only three matches over 2.5 goals. Their home numbers are similarly controlled, with six scored and four conceded across five competitive fixtures.

Newcastle bring a very different recent profile. Their last 10 games have delivered 32 total goals, with six matches over 2.5 and both teams scoring in six. Their five latest away matches include three clean sheets, but the two defeats each brought four goals conceded.

That contrast is why the cup setting matters. Everton's usual defensive discipline may be weakened by rotation and Branthwaite's absence, while Newcastle's high-ceiling attack can turn a tight contest into an open one quickly.

Final Verdict

Editorial

Our ConclusionEvertonvsNewcastle

Everton have been more measured in recent weeks, but this looks like a match where the cup context can override their usual caution. They need a response after two scoreless league defeats, while Newcastle travel with attacking confidence after winning 2-0 at Crystal Palace.

Newcastle's recent away results show both their threat and their defensive fragility, and Everton have enough in Barry and their attacking midfield options to contribute. Over 2.5 Goals at 2.01 is the selection, with a 2-2 draw the predicted score.