San Marino begin their first UEFA Nations League campaign in League C with a demanding home game against Finland at San Marino Stadium. Roberto Cevoli’s side earned promotion from League D in 2024/25, but the step up in class is immediate against a Finland squad targeting a return to League B.
San Marino did show some attacking intent in June, taking an early lead before losing 2-1 to Azerbaijan. Nicola Nanni scored that day and arrives in good club form, but Cevoli’s team have still conceded 37 goals across their last 10 internationals.
Finland have lost their last two friendlies to Germany and Hungary, although those matches came against much stronger opposition. Jacob Friis now has a stronger squad available, with Kaan Kairinen, Glen Kamara and Onni Valakari back in the group alongside captain Lukas Hrádecký and striker Joel Pohjanpalo.
The Finns should control the ball, spend long spells in the final third and have enough quality to turn that control into a comfortable margin. Our prediction is San Marino 0-4 Finland, with Finland Asian Handicap -2.5 at odds of 2.00 our best bet.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Finland Asian Handicap -2.5
Market: Asian Handicap
Correct Score Prediction: San Marino 0-4 Finland
Odds: 2.00
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Expected Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: No
📅 Date: 26 September 2026
🏟️ Venue: San Marino Stadium, Serravalle
🏆 Competition: UEFA Nations League
Match Preview
Cevoli has done a good job of making San Marino more competitive in spells. Promotion from League D was a landmark achievement, while the recent 0-0 draw with Andorra showed that they can keep a game tight when the opponent does not dominate possession or territory. The problem is that Finland bring a different level of physicality, organisation and depth.
San Marino’s latest performance against Azerbaijan was encouraging in parts. Alessandro Tosi supplied the cross for Nanni’s opener, while Edoardo Colombo made an important save before San Marino eventually lost 2-1. Nanni also hit the bar late on. Cevoli has recently used a narrow 4-3-1-2, with Lorenzo Lazzari linking midfield and attack, but that shape can leave the full-backs exposed when opponents move the ball wide quickly.
That is an area Finland should attack. Pohjanpalo gives them a reliable target in the box, while Daniel Håkans, Robin Lod and Valakari can work around him. Håkans has especially good memories of this opposition after scoring a hat-trick in Finland’s 6-0 win in June 2023. Finland can also use Benjamin Källman from the bench if Friis wants fresh movement through the middle.
The visitors were beaten 2-1 by Hungary in June after a 4-0 defeat in Germany, but those results should be kept in context. Friis used younger players in those friendlies and now welcomes back Kairinen, Kamara, Valakari, Adam Ståhl and Juho Lähteenmäki. Kairinen and Kamara should give Finland far more control in midfield than they had in the summer.
Finland’s League C campaign starts with an opportunity they cannot waste. Albania and Belarus will provide much tougher tests later in the group, so Friis will want a serious performance and a strong opening result in Serravalle.
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Why Finland Asian Handicap -2.5 Makes Sense
Finland Asian Handicap -2.5 needs Finland to win by at least three goals. There is no draw protection on this line, but that is reflected in the 2.00 price. A one- or two-goal Finland win would not be enough, so the key is whether the visitors can maintain their attacking pressure after taking the lead.
I expect them to do exactly that. San Marino have lost nine of their last 10 internationals and have conceded at least twice in eight of those games. Their last five competitive home matches brought 20 goals conceded, including 4-0 defeats to Cyprus and Austria, plus a 6-0 loss to Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Finland have had recent attacking issues against Germany and Hungary, but this is a far more favourable matchup. Pohjanpalo can occupy San Marino’s centre-backs, while Kairinen and Kamara should move the ball quickly into the advanced players. Ståhl and Lähteenmäki can also push on from full-back, forcing San Marino’s narrow midfield to cover more ground than it would like.
The main risk is rotation. Finland have four Nations League matches in a short September-October block, and Friis may manage minutes once his side are ahead. Even so, the squad has enough depth in Håkans, Källman, Topi Keskinen and Leo Walta to keep creating chances. At 2.00, Finland to cover -2.5 looks like good value rather than taking a short straight win.
- ✓San Marino have lost nine of their last 10 senior internationals.
- ✓San Marino have conceded 37 goals across their last 10 matches.
- ✓San Marino's last five competitive home games produced 20 goals conceded.
- ✓Finland have won all four senior competitive meetings with San Marino.
- ✓Finland won 6-0 against San Marino in June 2023.
- ✓Daniel Håkans scored a hat-trick in that 6-0 Finland victory.
- ✓Finland's September squad includes returning midfielders Kaan Kairinen and Glen Kamara.
Team News
San Marino have Nanni available after his call-up for this Nations League window. The striker scored against Azerbaijan and has started the Serie C season strongly with Arzignano. Colombo is expected to continue in goal, with Michele Cevoli, Marco Pasolini, Tosi, Lorenzo Capicchioni and Zannoni all regular recent starters.
Finland’s 25-man squad includes several important returns. Kairinen, Kamara and Valakari are back after missing the summer fixtures, while Ståhl and Lähteenmäki have returned following injury absences. Hrádecký remains captain and first-choice goalkeeper, and Pohjanpalo is likely to lead the line. No confirmed Finland suspensions have been reported.
Possible Starting Lineups
San Marino Possible XI
Colombo; Fabbri, Michele Cevoli, Pasolini, Tosi; Meloni, Lorenzo Capicchioni, Zannoni; Lazzari; Giacopetti, Nanni
Finland Possible XI
Hrádecký; Ståhl, Koski, Tenho, Lähteenmäki; Kamara, Kairinen; Håkans, Valakari, Lod; Pohjanpalo
Players to Watch
Nicola Nanni — San Marino
Nanni is San Marino’s biggest threat. He scored their latest international goal against Azerbaijan and can make the most of any set-piece or early cross from Tosi. Finland should dominate, but Nanni is the player most likely to punish any lapse.
Alessandro Tosi — San Marino
Tosi’s delivery from the left created Nanni’s goal in June. San Marino may have few attacking moments, so his crossing and set-piece quality will matter if they are to put Hrádecký under pressure.
Joel Pohjanpalo — Finland
Pohjanpalo should be Finland’s focal point against a defence that has struggled with crosses and pressure in its own box. His movement and physical presence can create chances for himself and open space for the supporting attackers.
Daniel Håkans — Finland
Håkans scored three times against San Marino in the 6-0 meeting in 2023. He offers direct running from wide areas and could be especially dangerous if San Marino’s full-backs are pinned deep by Finland’s overlapping defenders.
Head-to-Head
Finland have won all four senior competitive meetings with San Marino. The most recent game finished San Marino 1-2 Finland in November 2023, while Finland won 6-0 at home five months earlier. Their other meetings ended Finland 8-0 San Marino in 2010 and San Marino 0-1 Finland in 2011.
Finland have won both previous away games in this matchup, scoring three goals and conceding once. The 2023 results also show the possible range here: San Marino kept the return fixture relatively close, but Finland were ruthless when they found rhythm in Helsinki.
Final Verdict
Finland should have too much quality and control for San Marino over 90 minutes. Friis can call on a stronger midfield than he had in June, while Pohjanpalo, Håkans and Källman give the visitors several ways of breaking down a low block.
San Marino’s improvement under Cevoli should not be ignored, particularly with Nanni carrying a threat on the counter, but their defensive numbers remain a major concern. The risk is that Finland settle for a routine two-goal win after going ahead, yet the price makes the larger margin worth backing. Finland Asian Handicap -2.5 at 2.00 is the pick, with a 0-4 away victory expected.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
Finland should dominate possession and create enough chances to turn this into a one-sided Nations League opener. San Marino can compete for periods, but their defence faces a much deeper and stronger Finnish squad than the one seen in recent friendlies.
At 2.00, Finland Asian Handicap -2.5 remains the best bet because Finland need only find the three-goal margin their attacking options are capable of delivering.
Best Bet: Finland Asian Handicap -2.5
Odds: 2.00
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Correct Score: San Marino 0-4 Finland
