Sweden vs Poland Prediction, Betting Tips & Preview | UEFA Nations League

Sweden take on Poland at Strawberry Arena on Monday night with an early advantage already established in UEFA Nations League Group B4. Graham Potter’s side opened with a 2-1 win over Romania, while Poland were held to a goalless draw by Bosnia and Herzegovina in Warsaw.

The Swedes looked sharp going forward in that opening fixture. Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres were on target, while Lucas Bergvall and Yasin Ayari gave Potter’s midfield real purpose in possession. Isak has since left camp injured, but Sweden still have enough attacking quality to make the most of home advantage.

Poland were not poor against Bosnia, creating several good openings without finding a finish. Jan Urban has Robert Lewandowski, Piotr Zieliński and Nicola Zalewski available to hurt Sweden, although the loss of Jakub Kamiński after his injury against Bosnia narrows their options.

These teams produced five goals when Sweden won the World Cup play-off final in Solna in March, and another open contest is possible here. Our prediction is Sweden 2-1 Poland, with Sweden to Win at odds of 2.10 our best bet.

Quick Prediction

Best Bet: Sweden to Win
Market: Match Winner
Correct Score Prediction: Sweden 2-1 Poland
Odds: 2.10
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Expected Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: Yes

📅 Date: 28 September 2026
🏟️ Venue: Strawberry Arena, Solna
🏆 Competition: UEFA Nations League

Match Preview

Sweden began their Nations League campaign in the right manner, beating Romania 2-1 at Strawberry Arena on Friday. Potter asked his side to take the initiative and they did exactly that early on, with Ayari threading Isak through for the opener before Gyökeres turned in the rebound from Bergvall’s long-range effort.

There was plenty to like about the way Sweden moved the ball through midfield. Bergvall can carry possession into more advanced areas, while Ayari has the passing range to find runners early. Sebastian Nanasi and Alexander Bernhardsson gave them width against Romania, although both also looked to come inside and support the front two.

The change enforced by Isak’s absence is a sizeable one. He roamed intelligently off the front against Romania and linked the play well, but Gyökeres remains a powerful focal point after scoring in the opener. Benjamin Nygren is the most likely player to come into the attack, with Williot Swedberg, Patrik Wålemark and Paulos Abraham other options Potter can turn to.

Sweden do have issues at the other end. Romania found space on the counter-attack and scored through Dennis Man, while the hosts have not kept a clean sheet in their last 10 senior internationals. The injuries to Emil Holm and Hjalmar Ekdal also leave Potter with decisions to make in defence.

Poland arrive after a 0-0 draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina that was more frustrating than alarming. Urban’s side had the clearer chances, with Sebastian Szymański twice denied and Zieliński, Zalewski and Matty Cash all involved in promising moments. They simply lacked the final touch.

Urban used a 3-4-2-1 shape, with Cash and Michał Skóraś providing the width and Zieliński supplying the class in central areas. Szymański worked behind Lewandowski, while Zalewski made an immediate impact after replacing the injured Kamiński. That left-sided threat will matter in Solna, particularly because Sweden’s right-back position has been disrupted by Holm’s hamstring injury.

Lewandowski remains Poland’s main reference point, but this is not an attack that relies on him alone. Zieliński can unlock a defence from deeper areas, Zalewski is direct when he receives the ball wide or between the lines, and Karol Świderski gives Urban another goal threat from the bench. Poland scored in each of their last five competitive away matches, even though they have won only two of them.

Sweden should have more of the ball and more territory, but Poland have enough pace and experience to make their hosts work for the points. The home side’s sharper opening display and recent record in this stadium tip the balance.

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👑 Our Best Bet

🛡 High Confidence

Sweden to Win

⚽ Sweden started the group with a win and have already beaten Poland in Solna this year.

★ Editor's Choice

Best Odds

2.10

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✓ 🇸🇪 Sweden beat Romania 2-1 on matchday one ✓ ⚽ Sweden beat Poland 3-2 in March ✓ 🏟️ Sweden have home advantage at Strawberry Arena

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Why Sweden to Win Makes Sense

At 2.10, Sweden to Win is the right way to approach this match. Potter’s team have already settled into the Nations League group with three points, whereas Poland have had only three days to recover from a demanding draw in Warsaw and now face a difficult trip to Solna.

The key reason to side with Sweden is the way they attacked Romania. Bergvall and Ayari influenced both goals, while Gyökeres again showed his value inside the box. Isak’s injury is the obvious concern, but Sweden are not changing their whole approach; Nygren can join Gyökeres in a front two and the midfield still has players capable of feeding the forwards.

Poland’s 0-0 against Bosnia showed that they can be organised in Urban’s back-three system, but it also exposed a familiar problem. They created enough to score and did not take those chances. Away from home, they conceded three goals in their most recent trip to Sweden, and their defensive unit may again be stretched by Sweden’s movement around Gyökeres.

The main risk is Poland’s counter-attacking threat. Zieliński, Zalewski and Lewandowski can punish turnovers, and Sweden conceded on a Romanian break on Friday. Still, Sweden have the stronger momentum, home support and a more settled attacking rhythm from matchday one. A one-goal home win looks the most likely outcome.

Team News

Sweden will be without Alexander Isak, who scored against Romania before leaving camp with a minor injury. Right-back Emil Holm has also left the squad after suffering a hamstring problem in that game, while Hjalmar Ekdal is unavailable after picking up a minor injury. Mattias Svanberg withdrew before the camp, and Gustaf Lagerbielke was unavailable for the Romania fixture.

Daniel Svensson replaced Holm against Romania and is the obvious candidate to fill the right-sided defensive role. Victor Nilsson Lindelöf should continue as captain at centre-back, likely alongside Carl Starfelt, while Gyökeres is now Sweden’s clear central attacking leader. Nygren is the leading candidate to replace Isak.

Poland have lost Jakub Kamiński after he was injured against Bosnia and Herzegovina. Zalewski replaced him during that match and is the natural option to start in his place. Goalkeepers Kamil Grabara and Bartłomiej Drągowski are also out of the camp through injury, leaving Marcin Bułka as the latest starting goalkeeper.

Urban has selection choices after changing personnel at half-time against Bosnia. Kiwior, Bartosz Slisz and Szymański could all retain important roles, but Przemysław Frankowski, Wiktor Nowak and Świderski are viable alternatives if Poland freshen the side.

Possible Starting Lineups

Sweden Possible XI

Viktor Johansson; Daniel Svensson; Carl Starfelt; Victor Nilsson Lindelöf; Elliot Stroud; Alexander Bernhardsson; Lucas Bergvall; Yasin Ayari; Sebastian Nanasi; Benjamin Nygren; Viktor Gyökeres

Poland Possible XI

Marcin Bułka; Kacper Potulski; Jan Bednarek; Jakub Kiwior; Matty Cash; Bartosz Slisz; Piotr Zieliński; Michał Skóraś; Nicola Zalewski; Sebastian Szymański; Robert Lewandowski

Players to Watch

Viktor Gyökeres — Sweden

Gyökeres scored Sweden’s second goal against Romania and becomes even more important with Isak absent. Poland’s three-man defence will have to deal with his strength, sharp movement in the box and ability to attack second balls.

Lucas Bergvall — Sweden

Bergvall’s shot created the winning goal against Romania, but his wider influence was just as useful. He can drive Sweden forward from midfield and force Poland’s central players to make difficult decisions about when to press.

Piotr Zieliński — Poland

Zieliński remains Poland’s main creative influence. Sweden will expect to dominate possession, so the Inter Milan midfielder’s passing on the break and ability to find Cash or Zalewski in wide areas could be Poland’s best route to goal.

Nicola Zalewski — Poland

Zalewski was lively after replacing Kamiński against Bosnia and should be in line for a larger role here. His direct running is particularly relevant with Sweden having to reshuffle their right-hand side.

Head-to-Head

Sweden beat Poland 3-2 at Strawberry Arena in the World Cup play-off final on 31 March 2026. Anthony Elanga, Gustaf Lagerbielke and Gyökeres scored for Sweden, while Zalewski and Świderski found the net for Poland.

Poland’s overall record against Sweden stands at nine wins, four draws and 16 defeats. Their record in Sweden is also poor, with 10 defeats from 16 away meetings.

Final Verdict

Sweden have selection problems, most notably the loss of Isak, but they showed enough against Romania to remain the more convincing side. Gyökeres has support from Bergvall and Ayari, and Potter’s team should be able to push Poland back for long spells.

Poland will threaten when Zieliński gets time on the ball and Lewandowski has runners around him, so a clean sheet would be a surprise. However, their failure to score against Bosnia and Sweden’s home edge make the home win the stronger call at 2.10. Expect a competitive game with Sweden doing just enough, with our correct-score prediction Sweden 2-1 Poland.

FreeOddsTips Prediction

Sweden should control more of the match and have enough attacking quality to overcome the absence of Isak. Poland can make it close through their counter-attacking players, but the home side’s sharper start to the group keeps Sweden to Win as the preferred selection.

Best Bet: Sweden to Win
Odds: 2.10
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Correct Score: Sweden 2-1 Poland