Spain welcome Croatia to Seville with both sides already on three points after opening wins in UEFA Nations League Group A3. Luis de la Fuente’s world champions came through a demanding 3-2 win over England at Wembley, while Croatia beat Czechia 2-1 away from home in Slaven Bilić’s first competitive match back in charge.
Spain are on a remarkable 39-match unbeaten run and have an attack packed with pace, width and technical quality. Lamine Yamal struck early against England, while Álex Baena and Mikel Oyarzabal came off the bench to turn the game around. They should have plenty of the ball at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán.
Croatia will not arrive merely to sit deep. Bilić wants his side to press, keep possession and attack after regains, which should leave opportunities at both ends. Luka Modrić, Mateo Kovačić and Ivan Perišić still give Croatia the quality to play through pressure, while their latest win showed they can find a goal even when the match is tight.
Spain are the stronger side and should score more than once, but their aggressive approach can leave room for Croatia in transition. Our prediction is Spain 3-1 Croatia, with Both Teams to Score at odds of 2.10 our best bet.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score
Market: Both Teams To Score – Yes
Correct Score Prediction: Spain 3-1 Croatia
Odds: 2.10
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Expected Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: Yes
📅 Date: 30 September 2026
🏟️ Venue: Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Seville
🏆 Competition: UEFA Nations League
Match Preview
Spain’s performance at Wembley underlined why they remain the team to beat. They began at full speed, with Lamine Yamal forcing a turnover and scoring inside two minutes, but England then found space and led at the break. De la Fuente’s response was impressive: Baena and Oyarzabal entered in the second half and both scored in a 3-2 victory.
That game also showed the small concern behind the home side’s short prices. Spain have enormous control through Rodri and Fabián Ruiz, while Dani Olmo, Pedri and Mikel Merino give De la Fuente different ways to change a match. Yet England scored twice and had a penalty that Harry Kane struck against the bar. Spain are capable of dominating a game without making it entirely safe at the back.
The wide areas are central to Spain’s threat. Yamal can beat a defender or create a chance from nothing on the right, while Nico Williams stretches the pitch on the other side. Ferran Torres started up front at Wembley and has the movement to open lanes for Olmo, but Oyarzabal’s winner against England gives the coach a serious alternative. Baena can also come inside from the left and add another creative passer.
Croatia’s opener in Prague had a different feel, but it was equally useful preparation. They pressed Czechia well in the first half, then had to recover after allowing the hosts back into the contest. Luka Modrić put them ahead from the edge of the box before Marco Pašalić headed the late winner from Perišić’s cross.
Bilić has made it clear that Croatia will make changes in Seville and select the side best suited to Spain. That could mean more defensive balance in midfield, but Croatia still have players who can hurt Spain if they escape the first press. Kovačić carries the ball through midfield superbly, Modrić sees passes others do not, and Perišić remains a major outlet whether he starts from defence or further forward.
The visitors are likely to spend long spells without the ball, but that is not necessarily a problem for the BTTS selection. Spain’s full-backs will be encouraged to push on, their wingers stay high, and Croatia have enough composure to exploit a loose pass or break through the middle. Spain should create the greater volume of chances; Croatia only need one well-worked moment for this bet to land.
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Why Both Teams to Score Makes Sense
Both Teams to Score is the better way to approach this match than taking Spain at a short outright price. Spain are expected to win at home, but the straight result asks them to convert their superiority into three points. BTTS focuses on a more realistic match pattern: Spain creating plenty, while Croatia find one opening of their own.
Spain scored three against England, but they also conceded twice. Their high press and quick counter-attacks make them thrilling to watch, although they can leave space behind the midfield when opponents beat the first wave. Croatia have the players to make that count. Modrić and Kovačić can move the ball forward quickly, while Perišić and Marco Pašalić offer real delivery and movement in the final third.
The numbers also support goals rather than a low-event match. Spain have scored 19 goals in their last 10 competitive games, while Croatia have scored 21 across the same sample. Croatia have seen Over 2.5 Goals land in eight of their last 10 competitive matches, and both teams have scored in six of those games.
The main risk is Spain controlling the game so completely that Croatia barely get out. Spain kept seven clean sheets in their previous nine competitive matches before Wembley, so they clearly have the personnel to shut down good opponents. Still, Croatia’s midfield quality and Bilić’s positive approach make 2.10 a fair price for each side to score. Spain do not need to concede twice; one Croatia goal is enough.
- ✓Spain have gone 39 matches unbeaten.
- ✓Spain won 3-2 away to England in their Nations League opener.
- ✓Croatia won 2-1 away to Czechia in Slaven Bilić’s first competitive match back in charge.
- ✓Spain have scored 19 goals in their last 10 competitive matches.
- ✓Croatia have scored 21 goals in their last 10 competitive matches.
- ✓Over 2.5 Goals landed in 8 of Croatia’s last 10 competitive games.
- ✓Spain beat Croatia 3-0 at EURO 2024.
- ✓Croatia have lost all four previous meetings staged in Spain.
Team News
Spain are without injured right-back Pedro Porro, which has reduced De la Fuente’s options on that side. Marc Pubill stepped in for Eric García against England after García suffered a warm-up problem, and Pubill is the most likely starter again if García is not ready. Joan García was not selected because of injury, while Gavi missed the squad after limited club minutes.
There could be rotation after the Wembley win. Baena and Oyarzabal both made decisive cases from the bench, while Pedri came on for Fabián Ruiz and could be considered from the start. Spain have no identified suspension concerns from their opening Nations League match.
Croatia have no confirmed fresh suspension or injury issue among the active group, but Bilić has confirmed changes are coming. Modrić is not expected to play every game in this four-match international period, so his minutes are worth monitoring. Josip Šutalo could come into central defence after Luka Vušković started against Czechia, while Marco Pašalić has put himself in contention after scoring the winner.
Possible Starting Lineups
Spain Possible XI
Unai Simón; Marc Pubill; Pau Cubarsí; Aymeric Laporte; Marc Cucurella; Rodri; Fabián Ruiz; Lamine Yamal; Dani Olmo; Nico Williams; Ferran Torres
Croatia Possible XI
Dominik Livaković; Josip Stanišić; Josip Šutalo; Joško Gvardiol; Ivan Perišić; Mateo Kovačić; Luka Modrić; Petar Sučić; Luka Sučić; Igor Matanović; Marco Pašalić
Players to Watch
Lamine Yamal — Spain
Yamal set the tone against England with his second-minute goal and remains Spain’s most direct attacker. Croatia’s left side will have to deal with his dribbling, quick combinations and willingness to press high.
Mikel Oyarzabal — Spain
Oyarzabal scored the winner at Wembley and gives Spain a sharper option around the penalty area. Whether he starts or enters later, his intelligent movement can punish a Croatia defence that may already have spent long periods chasing the ball.
Mateo Kovačić — Croatia
Kovačić is Croatia’s best carrier through midfield and could be vital when Spain press high. If he can beat Rodri’s first line of pressure, Croatia will have a route into the final third.
Ivan Perišić — Croatia
Perišić supplied the cross for Croatia’s winner in Prague and offers experience on either flank. His delivery and timing when getting forward make him one of Croatia’s most likely creators against a Spain side that will push their own wide players on.
Head-to-Head
Spain have the stronger overall record in this fixture, winning six of 11 meetings, with Croatia winning three and two draws. Spain beat Croatia 3-0 at EURO 2024, while the previous Nations League final finished 0-0 after extra time before Spain won the shoot-out 5-4.
Croatia have also lost all four of their previous matches played in Spain, including 3-1 in 1999, 2-1 in 2006, 6-0 in 2018 and the 3-0 EURO 2024 defeat. Those older results do not decide this match, but they underline how difficult this trip has been for Croatia.
Final Verdict
Spain deserve to be favourites. Their midfield control, wide pace and strength from the bench should give them the upper hand, particularly in front of their own supporters. The likely match pattern is Spain dominating possession and Croatia waiting for moments to break.
The risk for BTTS is a Spain clean sheet, especially if Croatia rotate heavily and cannot get Modrić and Kovačić on the ball. But Croatia’s latest away win in Czechia showed they still have enough craft and attacking options to score against strong opposition. At 2.10, Both Teams to Score remains the value call. Spain should win an open contest, with our correct-score prediction of Spain 3-1 Croatia.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
Spain should have too much attacking quality over 90 minutes, but Croatia are built to cause problems when they can move through midfield and attack the space left by Spain’s aggressive shape. That is why Both Teams to Score remains the preferred selection at a solid price.
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score
Odds: 2.10
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Correct Score: Spain 3-1 Croatia
