Türkiye begin life in Nations League League A with a demanding home test against France at Kocaeli Stadium. Vincenzo Montella’s side reached the 2026 World Cup through the play-offs but left the finals at the group stage, despite signing off with a 3-2 win over the USA.
That result showed Türkiye’s attacking talent, with Arda Güler and Barış Alper Yılmaz on the scoresheet, but it also exposed familiar defensive issues. They conceded twice against the USA and now face a France side with far more depth in the final third.
France arrive after a fourth-place finish at the World Cup and with Zinédine Zidane taking charge for the first time. There is an element of uncertainty around a new manager, but the quality available to him is exceptional, especially with Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembélé and Désiré Doué in the squad.
Türkiye have made Kocaeli a difficult place to visit, winning four of their last five competitive home games. Still, injuries to Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız leave Montella without two of his most important players for a match where France should have control for long spells.
Our prediction is Türkiye 0-3 France, with France Asian Handicap -2 at odds of 3.45 our best bet.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: France Asian Handicap -2
Market: Asian Handicap
Correct Score Prediction: Türkiye 0-3 France
Odds: 3.45
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Expected Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: No
📅 Date: 25 September 2026
🏟️ Venue: Kocaeli Stadium
🏆 Competition: UEFA Nations League
Match Preview
This is the first matchday in League A Group A1, with Belgium and Italy completing a very strong section. Türkiye have earned their place at this level, but the World Cup showed the gap they must close against elite opposition. Losses to Australia and Paraguay left them eliminated before their final group match, even if the comeback against the USA offered a more encouraging finish.
Montella’s usual shape is close to a 4-2-3-1. Türkiye can be lively when Arda receives the ball between midfield and defence, while Ferdi Kadıoğlu gives them pace and thrust from left-back. Barış Alper’s movement can stretch a back line and Kerem Aktürkoğlu remains an important runner from wide areas. The issue is whether they can sustain attacks against France rather than simply create isolated moments.
France have more ways of hurting opponents. Mbappé is the obvious focal point after his nine-goal World Cup, but he is not carrying this attack alone. Olise can create from the right, Dembélé and Bradley Barcola offer direct running, while Doué and Rayan Cherki can find space around the box. That range should ask serious questions of Türkiye’s centre-backs and full-backs.
Zidane’s first selection will be watched closely. His France side have no established pattern under him yet, but the core of the recent 4-2-3-1 remains available. Adrien Rabiot, Eduardo Camavinga and Warren Zaïre-Emery give France energy and control in midfield, while Jules Koundé, Ibrahima Konaté and Dayot Upamecano offer a powerful defensive base.
France’s 4-6 defeat to England in the World Cup third-place play-off was chaotic, particularly after falling four goals behind before half-time. Yet their attacking response was formidable, and they scored 25 goals across their latest 10 matches. If they settle quickly under Zidane, France have the players to turn territorial control into a convincing result.
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Why France Asian Handicap -2 Makes Sense
France Asian Handicap -2 is a bigger-price selection, but it reflects the difference in attacking depth between these squads. France have scored three or more goals in five of their latest 10 matches, while Türkiye have conceded in three straight World Cup games and shipped five goals across that tournament.
The absence of Çalhanoğlu is especially important for Türkiye. Orkun Kökçü can move the ball well, but Çalhanoğlu’s set pieces, range of passing and leadership are difficult to replace. Without Kenan Yıldız as well, Montella has fewer options to change the game if France establish an early lead.
The -2 Asian line needs France to win by three or more goals for a full payout. A two-goal France win returns the stake, so the bet has a little protection if Türkiye remain competitive at home. At 3.45, that is more appealing than taking a short France match-winner price.
The main risk is clear: this is Zidane’s first game in charge and France face four fixtures in 11 days, so selection choices and game management matter. Türkiye also have a good recent home record. Even so, France’s front line should create enough chances if Mbappé and the supporting attackers find their rhythm.
- ✓Türkiye have conceded five goals across their three 2026 World Cup group matches.
- ✓France scored 25 goals across their latest 10 matches.
- ✓France scored at least three goals in five of their latest 10 matches.
- ✓Kylian Mbappé finished the 2026 World Cup with nine goals.
- ✓Türkiye are without injured Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız.
- ✓Türkiye have won four of their last five competitive home matches.
- ✓France have won four of the six previous senior meetings with Türkiye.
Team News
Türkiye are without Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız through injury. Mert Müldür is also absent from the September squad. Uğurcan Çakır is expected to continue in goal, with Zeki Çelik, Abdülkerim Bardakcı, Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Orkun Kökçü, Arda Güler, Kerem Aktürkoğlu and Barış Alper all among Montella’s main options.
France’s first Zidane squad includes Mbappé, Dembélé, Olise, Doué, Barcola, Cherki, Camavinga, Rabiot, Maignan, Koundé, Konaté and Upamecano. Aurélien Tchouaméni has not been selected after Zidane decided it was better for him to remain in Madrid. Theo Hernández, Lucas Digne and Malo Gusto are also not in the group from France’s latest World Cup XI.
Possible Starting Lineups
Türkiye Possible XI
Uğurcan Çakır; Zeki Çelik; Ozan Kabak; Abdülkerim Bardakcı; Ferdi Kadıoğlu; İsmail Yüksek; Orkun Kökçü; Oğuz Aydın; Arda Güler; Kerem Aktürkoğlu; Barış Alper Yılmaz
France Possible XI
Mike Maignan; Jules Koundé; Ibrahima Konaté; Dayot Upamecano; Adrien Truffert; Eduardo Camavinga; Adrien Rabiot; Michael Olise; Rayan Cherki; Désiré Doué; Kylian Mbappé
Players to Watch
Arda Güler — Türkiye
Güler scored and was named player of the match against the USA. He is Türkiye’s clearest source of invention in the absence of Çalhanoğlu, and Montella will need him to retain possession in dangerous areas rather than chase the game.
Barış Alper Yılmaz — Türkiye
Barış Alper scored against the USA after making a run into the box from a wide delivery. His pace and willingness to run channels give Türkiye a route behind France’s defence, particularly if Mbappé and France’s wide players push high.
Kylian Mbappé — France
Mbappé scored twice against England and finished the World Cup with nine goals. Whether he starts centrally or drifts into left-sided spaces, Türkiye will struggle to contain him if France can release him early.
Michael Olise — France
Olise brings composure and craft on the right side of France’s attack. His ability to combine with Koundé and feed Mbappé makes him a major threat against a Türkiye side likely to spend long periods defending its own third.
Head-to-Head
France have won four of the six senior meetings, with one draw and one Türkiye victory. The most recent meeting finished France 1-1 Türkiye in October 2019, while Türkiye won the previous qualifier 2-0 at home in June 2019. France’s last win in Türkiye was a 4-0 friendly victory in 2000.
Final Verdict
Türkiye should have strong home backing and enough quality through Güler, Kerem and Barış Alper to make France work. However, the missing influence of Çalhanoğlu and Yıldız weakens Montella’s options at exactly the wrong time.
France have a new manager and that brings a degree of caution, but Zidane inherits a squad packed with match-winners. If France control midfield through Camavinga and Rabiot, their attacking options should eventually stretch Türkiye beyond their limit. The risk is that France win by only one or two goals, but France Asian Handicap -2 at 3.45 remains the value call. Our correct-score prediction is Türkiye 0-3 France.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
France have the stronger squad, more attacking depth and a front line capable of punishing any defensive lapses. Türkiye’s home record deserves respect, but their key absences make a heavy away win a realistic outcome.
Best Bet: France Asian Handicap -2
Odds: 3.45
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Correct Score: Türkiye 0-3 France
