Italy begin a new UEFA Nations League campaign against Belgium at the Stadio Olimpico, with both countries starting fresh under new management. Roberto Mancini is back in the Italy dugout, while Mark van Bommel takes charge of Belgium for the first time.
The Azzurri are still dealing with the disappointment of missing the 2026 World Cup, but this is a chance to move forward quickly. Mancini has brought experience back into the group around Gianluigi Donnarumma, Alessandro Bastoni, Nicolò Barella and Sandro Tonali, while younger forwards such as Francesco Pio Esposito are pushing hard.
Belgium reached the World Cup quarter-finals before losing 2-1 to Spain, so there is plenty of ability in their squad. However, Van Bommel starts without Thibaut Courtois, Jérémy Doku and Amadou Onana, and that makes a difficult trip to Rome more complicated.
Italy have won four of their last five competitive home matches and have a strong recent record against Belgium. Our prediction is Italy 2-1 Belgium, with Italy to Win at odds of 2.30 our best bet.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Italy to Win
Market: Match Winner
Correct Score Prediction: Italy 2-1 Belgium
Odds: 2.30
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Expected Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: Yes
📅 Date: 25 September 2026
🏟️ Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
🏆 Competition: UEFA Nations League
Match Preview
This is the opening fixture in Nations League A1, a group also containing France and Türkiye. The top two sides reach the quarter-finals, so there is little room for a slow start. Italy have home advantage and should be highly motivated after their World Cup play-off defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina on penalties in March.
Mancini’s return gives Italy a clear point of interest. His previous spell ended with the EURO 2020 title, and he has spoken about building a competitive, technically strong side rather than forcing one fixed system. Italy could use a back three or switch into a four, but the midfield should be built around Barella and Tonali. Their ability to press, carry the ball and set the tempo matters against a Belgium team with plenty of creative quality.
At the back, Bastoni and Riccardo Calafiori can help Italy play through Belgium’s first press, while Giovanni Di Lorenzo offers experience on the right. Up front, Moise Kean is a direct option and Pio Esposito has scored in each of Italy’s two June friendlies. Giacomo Raspadori, Gianluca Scamacca and Nicolò Zaniolo also give Mancini different ways to change the game.
Belgium arrive with stronger recent World Cup form. They scored 14 goals in three knockout and group-stage wins against the USA, Senegal and New Zealand before Spain edged them out late in the quarter-final. Kevin De Bruyne remains the player Italy must contain. With Youri Tielemans expected to organise midfield and Romelu Lukaku available to lead the line, Belgium have enough quality to score in Rome.
There are changes, though. Courtois is taking a break from international football, Doku is injured and Onana is also absent. Senne Lammens may therefore start in goal, while Nicolas Raskin, Romeo Lavia or Hans Vanaken could be asked to fill an important midfield role. Charles De Ketelaere scored Belgium’s goal against Spain and can play as a striker, No. 10 or from a wider position, so Italy cannot focus only on Lukaku.
Belgium can make this competitive through De Bruyne’s passing and the movement of Lukaku, De Ketelaere and Leandro Trossard. Still, a new coach, several key absences and a first match in Rome make Italy the more appealing side at the prices.
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Why Italy to Win Makes Sense
At 2.30, Italy to Win is the right way to approach this match. Belgium are dangerous enough to make a short-priced Italy win unattractive, but this is a fair price for a home side with more continuity in key areas and a strong recent record in Rome.
Italy have won four of their last five competitive home matches, scoring 13 times across that run. The exception was the heavy Norway defeat, but the response has been positive: victories over Israel and Northern Ireland came with clean sheets. Donnarumma gives the defence a reliable base, while Bastoni, Calafiori and Barella bring big-match experience to Mancini’s first game back.
The key football battle is likely to be in midfield. Barella and Tonali have the energy to stop Belgium settling into possession, while Italy can use Kean’s pace and Pio Esposito’s movement against a back line without much time to adapt to Van Bommel’s demands. Belgium have conceded in seven of their last 10 competitive internationals, and the absence of Courtois removes an elite safety net.
The main risk is obvious: Belgium still carry serious attacking quality. De Bruyne can create a chance from one pass, and Lukaku or De Ketelaere can punish Italy if the home side leave gaps. That is why a narrow game makes more sense than expecting Italy to coast. Even so, Italy should have enough control and enough chances to edge it.
- ✓Italy have won four of their last five competitive home matches.
- ✓Italy scored 13 goals in those five competitive home fixtures.
- ✓Belgium scored 26 goals across their last 10 competitive internationals.
- ✓Belgium have conceded in seven of their last 10 competitive matches.
- ✓Italy beat Belgium 1-0 in their most recent meeting in November 2024.
- ✓Belgium are without Courtois, Doku and Onana for this match.
- ✓Both Italy and Belgium begin with a new manager in the dugout.
Team News
Italy are without Federico Dimarco, who has withdrawn through a physical problem, with Matteo Ruggeri called up in his place. Bryan Cristante is also out, and Samuele Ricci has joined the squad. Mancini has no confirmed competitive XI in his second spell, but Donnarumma, Bastoni, Calafiori, Barella, Tonali, Kean and Pio Esposito are among the strongest candidates to start.
Belgium travel without Courtois after an agreement for him to sit out this Nations League campaign. Doku and Onana are reported injured, while Axel Witsel and Matz Sels have retired from international football. Lukaku, De Bruyne, Tielemans, Trossard, Openda and De Ketelaere remain available, so Van Bommel still has plenty of attacking options.
Possible Starting Lineups
Italy Possible XI
Donnarumma; Gianluca Mancini; Bastoni; Calafiori; Di Lorenzo; Barella; Frattesi; Fagioli; Ruggeri; Kean; Francesco Pio Esposito
Belgium Possible XI
Lammens; Castagne; Ngoy; Mechele; De Cuyper; Raskin; Tielemans; Trossard; De Bruyne; De Ketelaere; Lukaku
Players to Watch
Nicolò Barella — Italy
Barella should set Italy’s intensity in midfield. If he and Tonali can disrupt De Bruyne’s supply line, Italy will have a much better chance of controlling the match rather than defending deep for long periods.
Moise Kean — Italy
Kean scored against Northern Ireland in Italy’s latest competitive win and gives Mancini a physical, direct threat. He can stretch Belgium’s centre-backs and create room for Pio Esposito or runners from midfield.
Kevin De Bruyne — Belgium
De Bruyne is Belgium’s main creator and remains capable of changing a match with one moment of quality. Italy must stop him receiving freely between midfield and defence.
Charles De Ketelaere — Belgium
De Ketelaere headed Belgium’s latest international goal against Spain. His movement can cause problems whether Van Bommel uses him behind Lukaku, from the right or closer to goal.
Head-to-Head
Italy won the most recent meeting 1-0 in Belgium on 14 November 2024, with Tonali scoring his first international goal. The previous game in Rome ended 2-2 in October 2024 after Belgium recovered from 2-0 down through goals from Maxim De Cuyper and Trossard.
Across 18 meetings, Italy have won 10 times, Belgium have won three and five matches have finished level. Belgium have also found Rome a difficult venue historically, winning only one of their 13 matches played in Italy.
Final Verdict
Italy’s new era under Mancini begins with a demanding test, but the Stadio Olimpico is a good place to start. The Azzurri have a settled core around Donnarumma, Bastoni, Barella and Tonali, and their recent competitive home record is strong.
Belgium will have moments through De Bruyne, Lukaku and De Ketelaere, so a clean sheet is far from certain. However, the Red Devils are also dealing with a new manager, a new goalkeeper situation and the absences of Courtois, Doku and Onana. At 2.30, Italy to Win looks good value in a game that should be competitive but may tilt the home side’s way. The correct-score prediction is Italy 2-1 Belgium.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
Italy should be energised by Mancini’s return and have enough experienced players to handle Belgium’s attacking threats. Belgium can score, but Italy look better placed to produce the stronger overall performance in Rome.
Best Bet: Italy to Win
Odds: 2.30
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Correct Score: Italy 2-1 Belgium
