Venezia face Fiorentina at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo on Friday night with both clubs still looking for their first Serie A points of the season. Giovanni Stroppa’s newly promoted side are 18th after three defeats, while Fiorentina sit bottom after conceding nine goals in their own three league losses.
Neither defence has settled. Venezia have let in seven goals in three Serie A matches, while Fiorentina have been beaten 4-0 by Roma, 3-0 by Frosinone and 2-1 by Torino. Their last outing showed why this game could open up: Venezia lost 3-2 at Frosinone, and Fiorentina threw away a lead against Torino.
There is pressure on both sides, but that can make for a more open contest rather than a cautious one. Venezia need to turn their possession into points at home, while Paolo Vanoli begins his second spell in charge of Fiorentina with an attack that has fresh options but a defence in need of immediate improvement.
Our prediction is Venezia 1-2 Fiorentina, with Over 2.5 Goals at odds of 1.80 our best bet.
Quick Prediction
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Market: Total Goals
Correct Score Prediction: Venezia 1-2 Fiorentina
Odds: 1.80
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Expected Goals: Over 2.5 Goals
Both Teams To Score: Yes
📅 Date: Friday, 11 September 2026
🏟️ Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo
🏆 Competition: Serie A
Match Preview
Venezia’s return to Serie A has started painfully, but their display at Frosinone at least offered an attacking response. Stroppa’s men went 2-0 down before John Yeboah and Richie Sagrado scored after the break. Venezia had 61% possession and 15 attempts in that match, yet still lost because their first-half defending and duel-winning were not good enough.
Stroppa has generally stayed with a 3-5-2. Gianluca Busio and Kike Pérez are important in the middle, where Venezia want to play through pressure rather than simply go long. The wing-backs give them width, and Yeboah’s likely return alongside Akor Adams would add more pace and movement to the front two. Adams has not scored in the league yet, though his two-goal Coppa Italia performance against Modena showed what he can bring around the box.
The concern is clear at the other end. Venezia have conceded in all four competitive games this season and their back three has been disrupted by injuries. They were also beaten 2-0 by Lecce in their only home league match so far, so the home crowd will expect a sharper start than the one seen at Frosinone.
Fiorentina arrive in an even worse league position and with a new manager in the dugout. Paolo Vanoli replaces Fabio Grosso after just four competitive matches, so this is a quick reset for a squad that was heavily rebuilt over the summer. The Viola have enough talent to improve, but they have allowed opponents too much space in the opening weeks and have conceded at least twice in every league game.
Vanoli is expected to use a 4-3-3 and may restore experienced defenders such as Dodô, Marin Pongračić and Luca Ranieri. In midfield, Nicolò Fagioli should be the player who sets the tempo, with Cher Ndour and Arthur Atta offering energy around him. Further forward, Mateo Pellegrino has Fiorentina’s only league goal, while Beto, Pedro Gonçalves, Franco Mastantuono and Wilfried Gnonto give Vanoli different attacking profiles.
Fiorentina’s 1-2 defeat to Torino was especially frustrating because Pellegrino put them ahead early in the second half before the visitors turned it around. That result makes a clean sheet hard to trust here, but it also suggests Fiorentina have enough attacking quality to take advantage if Venezia again leave gaps between their midfield and defence.
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Why Over 2.5 Goals Makes Sense
Over 2.5 Goals needs three goals, and the early Serie A records make that a realistic target. Fiorentina’s three league games have all gone over the line: a 4-0 defeat at Roma, a 3-0 home loss to Frosinone and last weekend’s 2-1 defeat to Torino. They have scored only once in that run, but Venezia have conceded seven times and look like the right opponent for Vanoli’s forwards to find more room.
Venezia’s latest match also matters. The 3-2 loss at Frosinone was not simply a game decided by one bad moment; Stroppa’s side fell behind heavily, then had enough possession and attacking intent to fight back. With Yeboah in form and Adams capable of occupying centre-backs, Venezia should get chances at the Penzo. Fiorentina’s defence has not shown it can manage games when ahead or under pressure.
At 1.80, this is a better route than trying to pick a winner between two pointless teams. Fiorentina may have the stronger squad, but a managerial change and a poor defensive start make their straight win less appealing. The goals line gives us a way into the match without needing to decide whether Venezia can take their first point.
The main risk is Fiorentina’s blunt early attacking return: one league goal in three games is not a strong scoring record. However, the visitors have added Beto and Pedro Gonçalves to an already mobile forward group, and Venezia have not kept a clean sheet this term. One early goal could quickly change the tone of a game neither side can afford to lose.
- ✓Venezia have lost all three Serie A matches, scoring two and conceding seven goals.
- ✓Fiorentina are bottom after three league defeats, with one goal scored and nine conceded.
- ✓All three of Fiorentina's Serie A games this season have produced Over 2.5 Goals.
- ✓Venezia's latest league match ended in a 3-2 defeat at Frosinone.
- ✓Fiorentina lost 2-1 to Torino after leading through Mateo Pellegrino.
- ✓Venezia have conceded in all four competitive matches this season.
- ✓Fiorentina have lost their last two Serie A visits to Venezia.
Team News
Venezia have defensive concerns. Armel Bella-Kotchap went off after 16 minutes at Frosinone and is a major doubt, while Marin Šverko, Bartol Franjić and Andrea Adorante are expected to miss out. Toma Bašić is also not certain to be available. Sagrado scored after replacing Bella-Kotchap last weekend and is a strong candidate to come into the back three.
Yeboah is pushing for a start after scoring from the bench at Frosinone, likely alongside Adams. Busio and Kike Pérez should again be central to Venezia’s midfield play, while recent signing Juan Jesus gives Stroppa another experienced defensive option if required.
Fiorentina are without long-term absentee Fabiano Parisi. Christ Inao Oulaï is doubtful after coming off early against Torino, which could open the door for Ndour or Atta in midfield. Vanoli may also make changes in defence, with Dodô, Pongračić and Ranieri all in contention to return after the Torino loss.
Possible Starting Lineups
Venezia Possible XI
Filip Stanković; Richie Sagrado; Joel Schingtienne; Redouane Halhal; Antoine Hainaut; Kike Pérez; Gianluca Busio; Simon Sohm; Ridgeciano Haps; John Yeboah; Akor Adams
Fiorentina Possible XI
David de Gea; Dodô; Marin Pongračić; Luca Ranieri; Víctor Valdepeñas; Cher Ndour; Nicolò Fagioli; Arthur Atta; Franco Mastantuono; Beto; Pedro Gonçalves
Players to Watch
John Yeboah — Venezia
Yeboah has scored in two of Venezia’s four competitive games this season, including his important goal at Frosinone. His direct running can test a Fiorentina defence that has struggled to deal with momentum swings.
Gianluca Busio — Venezia
Busio helped create Sagrado’s goal last weekend and will be important if Venezia are to move the ball through Fiorentina’s midfield. His delivery and passing from central areas can bring Adams and Yeboah into the game.
Mateo Pellegrino — Fiorentina
Pellegrino scored Fiorentina’s only Serie A goal so far against Torino. He is in competition with Beto for the No. 9 role, but his movement in the penalty area gives Fiorentina a useful focal point against a patched-up back line.
Nicolò Fagioli — Fiorentina
Fagioli has been a constant in Fiorentina’s midfield through the early changes. Vanoli needs him to keep the ball moving quickly and help the visitors play through Venezia’s three-man central midfield.
Head-to-Head
Venezia have had the better of the recent meetings, with two wins, one draw and one Fiorentina win in the four-game record supplied. The last encounter finished Venezia 2-1 Fiorentina in May 2025, when Fali Candé and Gaetano Oristanio scored for the home side.
Fiorentina have also lost on each of their last two Serie A trips to Venezia: 1-0 in October 2021 and 2-1 in May 2025. Those results do not decide this match, especially after both clubs’ summer changes, but they underline how awkward the Penzo can be for the Viola.
Final Verdict
This looks like a game in which both teams will see a chance to kick-start their season, and neither has shown enough defensively to make an unders bet attractive. Venezia found goals and attacking rhythm in the second half at Frosinone, while Fiorentina’s three league matches have all produced at least three goals.
Fiorentina’s new-manager bounce is the main reason to expect the visitors to edge it, but their defence remains the risk to any away-win selection. At 1.80, Over 2.5 Goals is the cleaner choice. Expect chances at both ends, with Fiorentina narrowly winning 2-1.
FreeOddsTips Prediction
Venezia should carry a threat at home, particularly if Yeboah starts after his goal at Frosinone, but Fiorentina have enough attacking options to respond under Vanoli. With both defences conceding freely in the opening weeks, the goals line remains the standout selection.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.80
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Correct Score: Venezia 1-2 Fiorentina
